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I thought of this thread because of my dismal run on horse racing not just of late but most of my adult life.
I wonder if some punters, like myself, are just attracted to backing the wrong type of horses. Maybe because it’s deep down we want to lose, but it seems to me that some posters and tipsters have a knack of being attracted to the same kind of loser type of horses, that fail again and again, while the ones who do well do exactly the opposite.
To give you an example on the flat I like to get creative and avoid the O’Brien horses, however those who blindly back them over the past few seasons have presumably been in clover. I tend to prefer the flashy blue of godolphin, when time and again in the big races they’ve been found wanting.
Is it possible to get out of th
is affliction or is it something that I’m stuck with for the rest of my punting days?Sometimes….but think part of the problem is that when you see that Coolmore or Godolphin have runners in a race it’s easy to put the blinkers on and dive in.
You know this already but…Take a little more time to research the other runners i.e. last races they won and at what class it was, also any horses running that they may have beaten and on what ground conditions and if any horses beaten by horses that are running have improved or not progressed, you’ll find that you can possibly draw a line through many of them and increase your chance of winning but there’s still a lot of luck involved.
This is a lot harder to do with NH racing and is one of the reasons I back more on the flat.
I’m always attracted to grey horses and horses with big white faces along with anything by Frankel
but I will still do that important homework before I hand over a penny to those dreadful bookies 
Keep going judge and don’t let a long losing patch bring you down, if you are basing your losing run on AW racing just stop backing there especially Wolverhampton which is very difficult to call and maybe just do one horse every day in a race that you have studied even if it’s odds on it will be a confidence boost.
You’ve had some good calls on here, just believe in your own judgement and gain as much information as you can from other posts but don’t follow folk blindly make up your own mind…
Good luck, enjoy your racing. Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I just study form and follow that. I know what you mean about Aiden O Brien horses though as it’s tempting to look at alternatives if their odds are prohibitive but if I can’t I either am happy to take the short price expecting the win or if there’s a doubt in my mind I leave the race alone.
I don’t blindly follow a particular horse jockey or trainer I just study a race on its own merits.
By following this principle ive done ok over the years.
if you are basing your losing run on AW racing
I very rarely back all-weather racing Jac.
to give another example of what i mean, by losing punting, not all bets are the same.
for example on the golf if you back one at say 200-1 with the bookies, then their real odds will probably be about 400-1. And of course they’ll be much closer to those odds on betfair. So that demonstrates how difficult it is to find value bets if you just bet blind, but yet someone like a ben coley seems to frequently find these long shots that either win or go very close to winning. I guess it just comes down to old-fashioned hard work and I don’t have that ability or inclination to put enough work in to even up the edge that the bookmaker traditionally enjoys.
Yes judge I am always attracted to the wrong horses but I just can’t help it.
I can never gauge Gordon Elliott nor Joseph O’Brien.
Mullins is a conundrum,the list goes on.Heard a psychologist talking about how some punters like losing because then they get an even bigger buzz when winning. Suppose that’s possible for some, especially if there’s not much hope of showing a profit, but don’t know how many punters are really like that.
Easy imagining others doing better, Judge; doubt you’re as bad as you believe and doubt there’s as many winning as often as you believe. Don’t believe all that’s said or read.
Again, I doubt those following Aiden O’Brien good things are “in clover”. Those punters might think they are, because AOB shorties win fairly often. But in the majority of cases odds allow for that and can start ridiculously short… And with the World Record and AOB hype only going to get shorter. Certainly not wrong to back against them, including by backing their less fancied stable companions – Homecoming Queen, Qualify, Wings Of Eagles were all big priced AOB Classic winners and even Winter beat hotpot Rhododendron in the 1000. Whether it’s right to back Godolphin horses, not sure. Personally am not that keen on Bin Surroor horses running in the top British races, but wouldn’t be surprised to see Charlie Appleby in the Group 1 winners enclosure… And Godolphin horses with other stables can do well, Ribchester won plenty and John Gosden is always a good opponent for team Ballydoyle.
Value Is EverythingI know what you mean, I do wonder if I’m subconsciously attracted to the wrong horses or something (I don’t win overall, have had the odd decent run like anybody does). I haven’t bet much in the last 12-18 months but when I do put a bet on I pretty much resign myself to the fact that it’s money gone. Odd cos I’m generally quite optimistic. And I can afford the bets I put on so it’s not that that’s bothering me.
Maybe it’s just cos winning is bloody hard. Even an 11/10 shot is more likely to lose than win and nobody ever got rich lumping on odds on shots.
Ginger I’m sure you’re right although you feel like a mug sometimes when you try and analyse races, and then people just come on here and say right, I fancy the O’Brien horse, and it duly wins. It’s hard to keep faith in the selection process at times. Ginge, you have a different mindset to the average punter who often just looks at the latest big thing that has been impressing visually, you try to get to the nitty gritty of races so I respect you for that. So many punters and posters on here go, right that’ll win, who cares what the odds are. To me that shows no insight whatsoever.
people used to joke about Nick Mordin, but what I liked was how he tried to look at races from a slightly different angle- slightly perverse at times, but he was trying to get into the detail of these contests, not just go right that hacked up by five lengths last time so it’ll win the next race as well.
I guess what I’m trying to get at with this thread is that the majority of punters, myself included, have deeply ingrained punting habits that they know are bad for them, but persist with them anyway- either because we are lacking the desire to put in the work to change those habits, or because as you say we are attracted to losing more than winning.
I know what you mean
Yeah that’s sad that you kind of resign yourself to losing.
Reminds me of the old joke where the guy comes back from the betting shop and his mate asks him how he got on, and he replies that he had a great day, because he broke even!I think a lot of punters are like that. And that’s also why tipsters tend to be so popular. I’ve never really understood the appeal of things like telephone tipsters myself, because I want to stand or fall on my own terms, yet I guess that for a lot of people they don’t have the will to put the work in or lack faith in their own judgement/processes.
Maybe winning though isn’t as hard as people think? I mean there are winning tipsters out there- although perhaps with people like Ben Coley and Hugh Taylor they are like the opposite of someone like me- they are instinctively attracted to the right sort of bets, that combined with the huge amount of work that they no doubt put into analysing these events, makes them winning punters. You have to do it full time to win I reckon.
I was thinking this recently- when i bet on sports, like say football or golf or horse racing, well there’s me, there’s the footballers, golfers or jockeys whatever and there’s the bookies, and the other lot are professionals at what they do, and the only one in this whole relationship who’s truly an amateur is me… depressing thought.
Hi TJ1……A refreshingly honest post.
Your chance of finding a winning punter long term, is around 33/1.
The bottom sentence of your 17-55 post answers your own question.
Bookmakers DO NOT have the edge,not an uncommon thought ,remember one crucial point,they have to price up every race,we do not have to play.
Question everything……..this is a sport polluted by numerous myths,driven by media that is ultimately sponsored by,and for, the betting industry.
Just 15 minutes per horse in an 8 runner handicap…….2 hrs……most national hunt replays 4-6 minutes,that is only giving you 3-4 recent runs etc…….do NOT read form,WATCH it,each of those race reports are an opinion,be sceptical of them all.
Every one of the 3% winners does the opposite,they HAVE to put the work in,there are no shortcuts.
Go back to that 17-55 post,Illuminating,you are getting to the crux.
All the best.
To give you an example on the flat I like to get creative and avoid the O’Brien horses, however those who blindly back them over the past few seasons have presumably been in clover. I tend to prefer the flashy blue of godolphin, when time and again in the big races they’ve been found wanting.
According to Racing Post stats for AOB, if you’d backed all his Irish runners blind over the past 25 years you would have made a modest profit in 2 of these years. The other 23 you would have lost, and lost substantially over the more recent years (presumably due to his debutantes getting a nice easy time FTO plus the horses are “unfiltered” at this stage).
You would have fared better backing only his GB runners blind but you would have still had more losing years than winning ones. You would have turned a profit the past 3 years but 2017 less profitable than the preceding two…and you know those ads for stockbrokers where they have in massive flashy capitals what the performance of a particular fund or broker has been? There’s always the little line at the bottom in much much smaller font that says “*past performance is not a guaranteed indicator of future profits”
people used to joke about Nick Mordin, but what I liked was how he tried to look at races from a slightly different angle- slightly perverse at times, but he was trying to get into the detail of these contests, not just go right that hacked up by five lengths last time so it’ll win the next race as well.
I used to follow Nick Mordin’s website very intently. I’d make notes on all the horses he mentioned and use that as my entry point into the grade and group races which is mainly what he covered.
I was quite upset when he stopped updating it ………. so upset that I gave up on top end racing and starting specialising in low grade AW handicaps ……….
In answer to your original question…yeah I’m attracted to the wrong horses. I get my head turned by big longshot prices, plus I am awful for cognitive bias making all sorts of excuses for any dodgy form in the history of horses I like, and magnifying or imagining in potential weaknesses in the horses opposing them.
Not quite as bad as “well Buveur d’Air’s horoscope is unfavourable this week so my horse will beat him” but nearly!I’m more likely to back horses running for trainers or owners I think seem like jolly nice people and oppose ones running for connections I don’t like (successful trainers just ones I have taken agin’ for whatever reason) which is illogical sentimental ridiculousness.
Hi TJ1……A refreshingly honest post
thanks… I think the discipline not to do a lot of throwaway bets is so very important… for example last weekend I must have done about seven or eight bets… only two of which won. If I had filtered all the silly bets on handicaps that I know nothing about, I probably would have done ok
I think I do well on the big races where the horses have established form without having to do a huge amount of work.. the races where I tend to lose on are the handicaps/maiden hurdles/national hunt flat races so of course the commonsense thing is to cut out betting on these altogether… hopefully I can show the strength of mind to do so. If i can’t it’s hopeless
I used to follow Nick Mordin’s website very intently
I believed that he ended up working for the Irish field tipping for them then got a job out in the far east. Was a shame that his website ended, but my question to you would be, given that you were familiar with his methods, could you have not just applied the same kind of thinking to these races, and wasn’t it just laziness on your part not to do so?
In answer to your original question…yeah I’m attracted to the wrong horses
You’ve basically hit the nail on the head with what I was trying to say with this thread… that we don’t want to win.. that we shy away from success… we’re not comfortable with backing the horses/trainers/jockeys who are proven winners.
Oh yes, I did pick up a lot from Mordin which I still use to this day ……. I spent several years doing all weather speed figures based on Mordin’s method and I’m still someone who looks for patterns in a horse’s form based around things Mordin used to point out like track conformation, field size etc as well as usual form
But it was nice to have his weekly round ups as a starting point to build up information about the mainly group horses he covered
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