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“Value” has been very much the buzz word over the last few decades,
but what does it mean? Well, my definition is simple:A value bet is a bet struck at a price that you consider is greater than the
horse’s chance of winningLet’s face it, if you could magically measure the precise chance of a
horse winning a race then cleaning out the bookies would be no problem!
You would simply back horses at bigger price than their chance of
winning. In the real world, of course, the skill lies in calculating as best as
possible a horse’s true chance of winning a race – no easy task!Don’t Back Value Alone
This to me is a critical point. Value theorists will say that you should not
back horses you think will win, but horses that are priced greater than
their chance of winning. This is a nice idea in theory but it could lead you
down the track of backing endless 33-1 shots that you think should be 25-1.
With the inevitable losing runs of twenty, thirty, forty or more, i hate to
think what state of your confidence (let alone your bank balance) would
be in! The idea only works when you have a supremely accurate way of
measuring up price available against probability of winning. It is all
mathematically sound but basically unrealistic.Value Pricing
So let’s start putting the horse before the cart.…tbc
No way is it “unrealistic”, Dynamite.
If a punter is poor at identifying value amongst outsiders, then he/she should obviously keep to betting on shorter priced value. However, it is easy to come to the wrong conclusion about where your advantage lies. Being bound to have more shorties win than outsiders, but profiting a lot more from the outsiders when they win compared to the shorties..
Yes Dynamite, backing 33/1 shots means a punter will go through long losing runs ON THOSE 33/1 shots alone. But in reality very few punters back solely outsiders. Therefore winners should still be coming in… And a punter can also have more than one selection in a race. When looking through a race it’s seldom I find only one selection to be value…
If I believe a horse has a 25% chance of winning (fair 3/1) and is available @ bigger than 100/30 (my price + a small margin for error) then I back it. If believing another horse in the same race has a 4% (fair 25/1) chance of winning and it is available @ bigger than 28/1 I’ll back that too. Far from increasing the chance of long losing runs… With more than one selection in a race, backing the outsider actually decreases it. Because I’m increasing my chance of getting the winner.
Also: Backing more than one selection in a race allows me the freedom to back outsiders. ie If wanting a bigger percentage chance of winning and/or scared of long losing runs – then yes it is only natural for the one selection a race punter to ignore or miss the value outsider, but he/she is missing out. If I’d only had one selection in the 2013 Grand National I’d have missed Aurora’s Encore @ 119/1, or indeed Arabian Queen’s 169/1 2015 York International etc, etc.
Value Is EverythingObtaining Value for Every Bet
“Value” has been very much the buzz word over the last few decades,
but what does it mean? Well, my definition is simple:A value bet is a bet struck at a price that you consider is greater than the
horse’s chance of winningLet’s face it, if you could magically measure the precise chance of a
horse winning a race then cleaning out the bookies would be no problem!
You would simply back horses at bigger price than their chance of
winning. In the real world, of course, the skill lies in calculating as best as
possible a horse’s true chance of winning a race – no easy task!Don’t Back Value Alone
This to me is a critical point. Value theorists will say that you should not
back horses you think will win, but horses that are priced greater than
their chance of winning. This is a nice idea in theory but it could lead you
down the track of backing endless 33-1 shots that you think should be 25-1.
With the inevitable losing runs of twenty, thirty, forty or more, i hate to
think what state of your confidence (let alone your bank balance) would
be in! The idea only works when you have a supremely accurate way of
measuring up price available against probability of winning. It is all
mathematically sound but basically unrealistic.Value Pricing
So let’s start putting the horse before the cart. You must be convinced
that every horse you back has an excellent chance of winning the race
in question. To me this is absolutely fundamental. At this stage you can
apply a Minimum Price to your selection. Now there is no simple way of
calculating a Minimum Price; i believe that this all comes with experience
and getting a “feel” for a particular horse’s chance, but i think that
everyone who thinks a horse will win a certain race can give you some
idea of the price he would be willing to back it at. I would strongly
recommend that you study form without any forecast SP as this is an
excellent discipline for mentally “pricing up” a race (as well as stopping
you being influenced by the forecast prices beforehand). Finally, be
realistic about your Minimum Price. As i am attracted to horses with good
chances of winning, mine are generally quite low (i don’t often knock out
an odds-against horse on the grounds of price). But if you are constantly
demanding a Minimum Price of 8-1 about your ultra-confident selections,
you may not have too many bets in a season!If you cannot get any value Morning prices or cannot be at the races or
in the bookies to check the pre-race prices on your selection, you will be
“betting blind” at SP. As this may be the case for many of you, i
recommend you use a trusted betting forecast (i find the Racing Post
best) to determine whether your bet will be available at or above the
Minimum Price. In effect not infallible but is an acceptable compromise.Golden Rules
Definite “zero tolerance” legislation,…tbc
Trouble is Dynamite, betting forecasts are more than “infallible”.
Someone who wrote some Racing Post race cards once told me I should put in for a job doing the same. The race card writer also does the “betting forecast”. They’re just one person’s opinion of what the betting will be… And – most importantly… he/she (rightly) does NOT spend anywhere near as much time calculating this “betting forecast” compared to a bookies odds-compiler. Therefore – over time – the Racing Post betting forecast won’t be accurate enough.Personally, for punters trying to obtain the best value (or any value at all) I would not recommend using the Racing Post (or any other) “betting forecast” to determine anything.
If punters are good at evaluating form in to chance they’ll succeed; if not they’ll fail. Simple as that.
Value Is EverythingWhat do you mean by “you must be convinced that every horse you back has an excellent chance of winning”? Does “excellent” mean you need a 75% chance, 50%, 30%, 10%, 5%?
Where is your cut off point for a bet being excellent?
…Because surely 4/9 is effectively an excellent chance if the punter believes it has a 75% chance of winning?
3/1 effectively excellent for what a punter believes a 30% chance?
14/1 effectively excellent for what a punter believes a 10% chance?
33/1 effectively excellent for what a punter believes a 5% chance?
Likewise, saying you generally bet when a horse has a “good chance of winning”. In exactly the same way as above, what is meant by “good”?
Value Is Everything…
I am in the process of changing tack and concentrate on only backing horses with a GOOD chance of winning.GOOD = an estimated risk of 20% or LESS
(want the reasons to backit to stackup)40% would be nice
that seems workable
D21
If I believe a horse has a 25% chance of winning (fair 3/1) and is available @ bigger than 100/30 (my price + a small margin for error) then I back it.
Yes Gingertipser i agree with this, now
i say now because i previously followed a BROADBRUSH approach.
backing plenty of big odds and sometimes landing a 25/1, 33/1 or 50/1 winner.six years of only small profits (£10 per point)
My end game is to drive my average point bet to at least
………..(£100 to max £300 range)
…………(annual 200pts profit)inorder to do this i require quick TIGHT margin TURNOVER.
MOMENTUM is a beautiful (upward RATCHET) honey
D21
***
Obtaining Value for Every Bet“Value” has been very much the buzz word over the last few decades,
but what does it mean? Well, my definition is simple:A value bet is a bet struck at a price that you consider is greater than the
horse’s chance of winningLet’s face it, if you could magically measure the precise chance of a
horse winning a race then cleaning out the bookies would be no problem!
You would simply back horses at bigger price than their chance of
winning. In the real world, of course, the skill lies in calculating as best as
possible a horse’s true chance of winning a race – no easy task!Don’t Back Value Alone
This to me is a critical point. Value theorists will say that you should not
back horses you think will win, but horses that are priced greater than
their chance of winning. This is a nice idea in theory but it could lead you
down the track of backing endless 33-1 shots that you think should be 25-1.
With the inevitable losing runs of twenty, thirty, forty or more, i hate to
think what state of your confidence (let alone your bank balance) would
be in! The idea only works when you have a supremely accurate way of
measuring up price available against probability of winning. It is all
mathematically sound but basically unrealistic.Value Pricing
So let’s start putting the horse before the cart. You must be convinced
that every horse you back has an excellent chance of winning the race
in question. To me this is absolutely fundamental. At this stage you can
apply a Minimum Price to your selection. Now there is no simple way of
calculating a Minimum Price; i believe that this all comes with experience
and getting a “feel” for a particular horse’s chance, but i think that
everyone who thinks a horse will win a certain race can give you some
idea of the price he would be willing to back it at. I would strongly
recommend that you study form without any forecast SP as this is an
excellent discipline for mentally “pricing up” a race (as well as stopping
you being influenced by the forecast prices beforehand). Finally, be
realistic about your Minimum Price. As i am attracted to horses with good
chances of winning, mine are generally quite low (i don’t often knock out
an odds-against horse on the grounds of price). But if you are constantly
demanding a Minimum Price of 8-1 about your ultra-confident selections,
you may not have too many bets in a season!If you cannot get any value Morning prices or cannot be at the races or
in the bookies to check the pre-race prices on your selection, you will be
“betting blind” at SP. As this may be the case for many of you, i
recommend you use a trusted betting forecast (i find the Racing Post
best) to determine whether your bet will be available at or above the
Minimum Price. In effect not infallible but is an acceptable compromise.Here then are the golden rules for value betting:
1. BASED ON THE FORM STUDY FOR YOUR SELECTION’S RACE SET A
MINIMUM PRICE THAT YOU WOULD BE PREPARED TO BACK THE
SELECTION AT.2. NEVER, EVER BACK YOUR SELECTIONS AT A LOWER PRICE THAN
YOUR MINIMUM.This simple idea cuts out these two dogmatic approaches:
a) Feeling you must back a horse because it’s a “value price” even
though you have little confidence in it winning.b) Backing a horse no matter how short the price because you are
confident it will win.Stick to these two rules and you will always back horses you are confident
in, at prices you feel happy with. That’s real value.fini…
***(first draft)***
inspired by author…
___(Dennis Wilson)___No Dynamite, what you describe is not “Real value“, it is just how you see value. Which is exactly my original point in this thread. “Value” means different things to different punters.
Many punters find value at bigger odds than you. For you to say that’s not “real value” is nonsense.
To be “value”, a punter does not need to be “confident” a horse will win to back it, does not need to have an “excellent” chance or even a “good” chance. Let’s face it, something thought by the punter to be a fair 3/1 shot has only a 25% chance of winning, which means it also has a 75% chance of losing. In other words three times more likely to lose than win… A punter could say he/she is confident of the horse losing or has “little confidence in it winning”… And yet if the punter can get just 4/1 about this particular horse it is a good bet. ie Over time, if a punter wins 25% of their 4/1 bets then he/she has got value / will show a good profit.
Punters can of course bet solely on shortish priced horses if that’s what they are best at. However, to be accurate at evaluating the chances of shortish priced horses he/she also needs to be pretty good at evaluating mid priced and outsiders… Because coming to the wrong decision about mid priced and outsiders will result in coming to the wrong decision about the shortish prices.
eg If the combined chance of all the other horses (including mid priced and outsiders) is 50% Evens then the short priced horse is Evens 50% (because 50% + 50% = 100%)… But if the punter has wrongly made the others 40% he/she will have also come to the wrong conclusion of the selection being 60% 4/6 shot (100 – 40 = 60). Believing selections have better chances than they actually do results in no value / no profit.
By backing solely shortish prices it would be easy to subconsciously up the shorty’s chance just to get a bet… Yes, if shorties are too short punters can just throw the race away. Personally, after working out the chances of each horse in a race I don’t want that time wasted.
Value Is EverythingAlthough backing value outsiders can mean longer losing runs; a punter is backing shorter priced horses too, often in the same race. So winners are still coming in…
And losing runs are relative to the odds / chance and stake anyway.
ie Outsiders being outsiders don’t need as much staked, so a punter can afford a longer losing run which can be allowed for.
Losing runs on longer priced outsiders are longer but shorter losing runs on shorties often result in losing more money.Value Is EverythingPersonally I always look for what I consider value. I price up races and focus in on the most significant runners I think have been underestimated.
Pricing up is a skill any serious punter should learn. When a horse wins at say 8/1, the perception will always be that was a good price as it warrants a good return, but when you price races up you soon realise such prices may not really be a ‘value’ price.
Every horse in a race has a chance of some sorts hence every horse has a price.
But every punter is different. For a ‘Saturday’ punter, an 8/1 winner is a good bet as if you are looking for winners in this way it is a good return, but if you price up every day looking for value you have to be the right side of the coin.
Hi tbracing
my current stage of “betting evolution” requires less and less human involvement.
imo… every race is a 100 piece jigsaw puzzle. *(focus on good class events)
next step share the them amongst the runners.this begs the question HOW?
…give out marks for Course form , Distance form etc
the overall sum of the score can then be normalised with in the
(1 to 100 marks range) eg. 120 total reduced by 20%the bets will then pick themselves a horse with 25 jigsaw pieces at 7/1
is a no brainer defo selection… MOVE ON!25% = 3/1
…if you are any good you will make moneyIt’s UNREALISTIC & UNHELPFUL to streecctchh out value estimation like an ELASTIC BAND.
*unless you have a millionaire miracle equation, grubbing out 3% chances as ?value?D21
“the proof of the pudding is in the EATING”>>>join the SELECTION_3 competition
SELECT 3 HORSES to win on Saturday 26th December 2020-Week 10 of the Jumps
CATCH ME ?IF YOU CAN?
D21
robnorth,
In relation to your point on Kelly Criterion:
Although I don’t use Kelly, do use my own value based staking system.
If working a horse out as a fair 3/1 and it’s available @ 50/1 with bookies/betfair… Then yes I agree the punter has in all probability got it wrong and should not bet the amount Kelly Criterion suggests of one thought 3/1 available @ 50/1.Because: Once a punter knows their 3/1 assessment is in all probability wrong then his/her opinion of the horse is surely no longer 3/1? ie Kelly are not telling him/her to have such a big bet.
Whenever working out a horse significantly different to available odds; I’ve looked at the race again and invariably found something I’ve missed and thetrefore altered my opinion and subsequent stake (or non-stake) accordingly.
Value Is Everything
MOMENTUM 
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