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Watched an interesting piece there with Tony Elves ( ye olde Newmarket gallops observer ) who says Frankel did the most amazing piece of work he has seen in a long, long time last Saturday – and will be astounded if Henry Cecil’s colt fails to win the Dewhurst.
I think Saamidd will be his main danger and not Dream Ahead.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
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TAPK
Must we have even the few threads that still contain genuinely intelligent discussion constantly littered by your infantile boasting.
Give us a rest, ffs!- Total Posts 17716
There you go Gord listen to "H" he knows ya know
May I "H" ?
Dewhurst
1. Frankel 4/9
2. Saamidd 11/2
3. Dream Ahead 4/1Now that will save everyone the trouble of watching the race?
Her indoors just smacked me round the head for talking to the computer
I’m going to bed - Total Posts 17716
How was "Strong Suit made to look ordinary by Zoffany" when he’d beaten the same horse comprehensively in the Coventry?
You’re talking in riddles again, Fist.
And if anyone thinks Frankel, if he does win, is going to put 4, 5, 6, 7 or even 8 lengths between himself and Dream Ahead then they’re out of their mind.
Frankel won’t be able to sustain the acceleration he showed against sub-standard opposition in the Royal Lodge when taking on the likes of Dream Ahead and Saamidd. It’s not possible, irrespective of what people’s sources are telling them. Besides, he’s not even the best middle-distance prospect in the yard and given how well he’s built I’d argue that a stiff six furlongs would be more ideal (at this stage) than seven against Dream Ahead.
As soon as the race goes NRNB (Dream Ahead isn’t going to shorten from 3/1 and 7/2) I might consider having my biggest bet for a long, long time.
TAPK
Must we have even the few threads that still contain genuinely intelligent discussion constantly littered by your infantile boasting.
Give us a rest, ffs!reet, i wouldn"t rate this as a thread containing genuinely intelligent discussion,its a completely hypothetical thread!Like i have said on numerous occassions,Frankel needs to do it all at 3,thats when we will see if he is the real deal! Still plenty of Coulda,shoulda,wouldas to come whatever happens on Saturday! You havin flash backs to our duel last year by any chance? The smell of fear blows slowly towards Newmarket! I cant wait!
As soon as the race goes NRNB (Dream Ahead isn’t going to shorten from 3/1 and 7/2) I might consider having my biggest bet for a long, long time.
Passion and belief AJ,i"m loving the build up to this Middleweight clash! They will be Heavyweights when they are 3yo!
I"m not as confident as yourself about Saturdays outcome but there"s nobody more confident thatDream Ahead
is the better 2000gns prospect,i hope you have lumped on for that one because if Frankels bubble bursts already,the odds on will be he wont be even favourite for the 2000gns!
Still get that sense of bitterness
I am apparently not expressing myself clearly!
I walked away from Timeform in part in 2002 when taking up punting seriously and then for good in 2005 when leaving the company altogether for another venture.
It was my choice. And one consequence of that choice is that I do not know what policies were in place while I was away.
Far from being bitter I feel grateful that Timeform has brought me back into the fold, to a degree, and that I once again have some sort of say in what goes on there.
Will you accept that?!?
There you go Gord listen to "H" he knows ya know
May I "H" ?
Dewhurst
1. Frankel 4/9
2. Saamidd 11/2
3. Dream Ahead 4/1And how far is the wonder horse going to win by wise one?
I think the winning margin will depend on the usual factors: ground, pace, tactics etc.
I do however, foresee Frankel winning by enough of a margin to ensure his connections collect first prize money.
I feel he will have too much power and acceleration for the rest. Dream Ahead has a high knee action which is probably suited to softer ground – so unless the mud is flying, I can’t really see him beating Frankel.
The Godolphin team refer to Saamidd as Pegasus; so he must be showing them all the right signs at home.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
- Total Posts 17716
The Godolphin team refer to Saamidd as Pegasus; so he must be showing them all the right signs at home.
So much so that Suroor is already making excuses.
"Oh Fist, you don’t learn do you? How many more times?"
Not every horse is Frankel not every horse who is priced at 8/13 is an 8/13 shot at least not in my view.
So you do recognise an 8/13 chance has to be value to be worth a bet
e’g I might have 6500 quid on Frankel but I’m not going to put that same mount or anything like it on a SMS first timer in October am I? In fact if you catching me doing so without knowing it’s the best horse in his yard please shoot me.
So again, you do recognise an 8/13 chance has to be value to be worth a bet.
Racing/Gambling is not about doing sums or about value.
Oh dear, you don’t recognise anything.
It’s about spotting opportunites like a Dream Ahead was last time not gambling on him because of the price this time when the odds are he’s going to get his backseide kicked.
Value is value, value can be an 8/13 shot or 7/2.
What you are not allowing for is someone who is good at spotting winners and knowing when to back heavily and when not to.
And that’s you is it Fist?
Everyone backs winners. It’s the percentage of winners at each price that allows any punter to make a profit.
No 2 punters are the same so your figures can’t possibly apply overall.
So you believe you can make a profit with level stakes, by winning less than 62 out of 100 bets all at 8/13? Even you Fist, have to work within the Mathematics Of Betting.
The other minus is the way you bet. You can have 2 4 and 5 horses in one race which for real money you would never get on at decent prices and rduce your avergae winning iodds even further. A losing streak would also soon reduce your ability to finance it.
Fine if you are betting in 50p but in hundreds or thousands it a no go area with no future.
Unlike some Fist, I’ve never told anyone how much I bet. It’s not the done thing you know. I don’t care what you think.
I heard a well known successful racing pundit say recently "in his 40 years in racing he knows of no one who ever made fortune backing value but he knows plenty who claims they have" They’re better liars than they are gamblers".
Convenient that, not putting a name to the "well known successful pundit".
Take heed made before you put yourself in a mental facilty.
And there finally speaks the voice of experience.
:lol:
I posed a question Fist, "could it be they’re clueless?"
Shame you took it so badly.As Prufrock says, it’s obvious you don’t understand how Timeform work. They’ve rated Frankel with a "p" for improvement to come. So it is obvious they believe Frankel will be the better horse. Yet you snigger that Dream Ahead is rated a lb better. 117 Saamidd is actually an exceptional rating for a two year old who’s had just two starts. With comments like "fast emerging as one of the best of his generation….supplementing for the Dewhurst is a no brainer…."etc. It is 100% clear Timeform believe both Saamidd and Frankel will improve. Yet you make out they believe Dream Ahead is a 13lb better horse than Saamidd and a better one than Frankel. Which is so clearly wrong, but it suits you to do so. Any excuse eh.
I’ll leave others to make up their own minds whether:
Someone who believes he can make a profit without getting a good price. Someone who thinks he’s above the laws of mathematics which bookmakers use to make their odds. Is such a man clueless?Value Is EverythingGinge,Fist on his own admission earlier this year confessed he hasn"t got a clue about ratings and i for one believe him! He can be a bigger wind-up merchant than me but remember this,at least you have the balls to put your opinions in a thread that can quite easily make you look a right D*ck, (Daily Lays and Plays)! You stick to your philosophy and you will be fine! "Fists Diary" was a best seller,it clearly shows how knowledgable Fist is,but more importantly it showed his weakness! No discipline,in real money he lost £10000,0000.000. Thankfully i dont have any weaknesses!
Far from being bitter I feel grateful that Timeform has brought me back into the fold, to a degree, and that I once again have some sort of say in what goes on there.
Will you accept that?!?
Certainly will
Timeform –
with all thy faults I love thee still
So just trying to steal a glimpse up the beloved girl’s skirt in order to check the state of her knickers
Bad form, sorry
fin
Fist , fair enough and 12/10 for your passion and fire , its admirable , not sure about some of the content though …
I am old enough to remember Apalachee . he was the 2nd coming , and I spent all winter dreaming about him destroying the classics …..sadly he never trained on and my first lesson in racing was served on a very cold plate
These times I enjoy the now …
Keep hitting it though , we need strong views in this room of excited babble
Ricky
ps Apalachee had a timeform rating of 137 …..so lets not get too carried away
cheers
Ricky
Besides, he’s not even the best middle-distance prospect in the yard
Don’t leave us waiting in suspense. What else has Cecil got?
I’m going to bed 
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