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The tell me Henry Cecil has applied for a pilots licence and hopes to have it before the Dewhurst.
It’s not for him it’s for Frankel as he’s scared the BHA might find the jet engine he has tucked up his backside.
Only 8 lengths Mick?
I would think you’d actually get a very good price for him to win by over or under 5 lengths if you scout about.
The bubble will pop! whether its the Dewhurst or next years 2000gns Frankel is Arazi reincarnated! I"m surprised at you Fist,you just cant help yourself,well to be honest i"m not that surprised,you are one for getting a bit carried away!
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Eight lengths? Are you mad?
Frankel hasn’t faced a horse of the calibre of Dream Ahead or even Saamidd in any of his three runs to date and whilst his turn of foot is impressive it won’t be nearly so devastating in proper, group-class company.
If Michael Prosser maintains the current good, good-to-soft in places, you might be in for a rather unpleasant surprise.
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Frankel probably won’t win by 8 lengths maybe 4 or 5 but some people back the best price not the best horse and in this case the best horse is Frankel but if you want a price you’d go for Dream Ahead or Duboyne Express.
What Henry Cecil has said of late it surprises me that people just don’t want to listen to him and think they can better his horse? this year you can’t it’s nigh impossible but maybe next year it’s a different story although Frankel would still mop up in the 2000 Guineas because I dont think Racing both flat and jumps has ever in 100-200 years seen a horse like Frankel or done anything Frankel has done at 2, the horse is better than sea the stars at 2 and will be better than him at 3.
Unbiased observers described St.Nichlaus Abbey in the same glowing terms last year. So slow down,you are going too fast.Teofilo,New Approach,Frankel;3 out of the last 4 champion two year olds.What about this stud Galileo! Is he the greatest living sire of thoroughbreds?
You just know this is going to end up with a shock result then the excuses will come thick and fast. Didn’t Raven Pass win this 1st 3 races as impressive as Frankel but could only finish 3rd in this race??
One thing for sure is there will be a proper gallop on sat AOB will ensure that so there will be no hiding place if Frankel can win off a fast pace then he will be the champion 2yr,i rather suspect he wont .
I was never all that excited about St Nicholas Abbey last year because Canford Cliffs was, easily, the one that captured my imagination and felt he had the most potential.
Frankel excites me more than Canford Cliffs. I genuinely think he’s gonna be a major force next year.
However, should the Frankel bubble burst on Saturday, then I’m gonna burst with him!
… but I’m confident it won’t come to that Didn’t Raven Pass win this 1st 3 races as impressive as Frankel but could only finish 3rd in this race??
Raven’s Pass was very impressive as a 2YO but didn’t win with the ease and authority that Frankel has shown. The ground didn’t suit RP when he finished 3rd to New Approach. Still, Raven’s Pass showed the world what he was capable of in the Breeder’s Cup.
First came Teofilo, next New Approach and now Frankel.All three capable of stirring the blood What can you say about Galileo.Is he the greatest modern time sire?
Timeform have Dream Ahead rated BETTER than Frankel ahead of Saturday’s Dewhurst.
I have to say, the more I watch their respective last performances, the more that demolition of Strong Suit impresses.
Can’t wait for what is surely the most eagerly awaited two year old race in a generation.
I’m with Timeform in the Dream Ahead corner. How about you?
Timeform has a "p" on Frankel’s rating, but not on Dream Ahead’s.
I think they are right to rate Dream Ahead’s form to date the higher but also to suggest that Frankel should overtake his rival.
I dont think Racing both flat and jumps has ever in 100-200 years seen a horse like Frankel or done anything Frankel has done at 2, the horse is better than sea the stars at 2 and will be better than him at 3.
Priceless! In all your 3 years of studying racing you are an expert of the last 200! What price would you have made Arkle in a match bet for the Cheltenham Gold cup with Frankel then?
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Never been one that trusted Timeform myself and don’t believe their theorys are acceptable but nevertheless they’re the main advertisers of Speed Ratings so you’d hope now and then they get it spot on to save face of the young speed raters who’re doing it right and trying to make speed a more reliable component.
Nevertheless I feel they’ve got it wrong "yet" again "sigh", I wonder if they took into account the winning distances across the card on what was a freak day;
Havant won by 4l
Cityscape won by 7l
Hooray won by 5l
Dream Ahead won by 9l
Loving Spirit won by 5l
Myplacelater won by 6l
Sarrsar won by SHD
Scottish Boogie won by 19lI can’t stress enough how wrong they’ve got their rating, sometimes a quick number can’t portray the right image.
I"m in the
Dream Ahead
camp and as fascinating a race the Dewhurst is,their respective 3yo careers is what matters most! I am not concerned about how easy Frankel wins on Saturday,(thats if he does) as Dream ahead is certainly the better long term prospect! In a way i hope Frankel does win comfortably by 2 lengths and goes 4/6 for the 2000gns as he becomes a super lay bet! I just hope all run to their best and the ground isn"t an excuse as it will be a cracker!
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Dream Ahead was much more impressive on the soft ground of the Middle Park than he was on the good going at Deauville, and with decent ground forecast for The Dewhurst, it’s unlikely (imo) he’ll get withn 7lbs of Frankel.
One question I have about Timeform’s rating of Frankel after the Royal Lodge…
According to DJ’s blog the rating was adjusted upwards after analysis of the sectional times. I assume similar adjustment is not done for the vast majority of ratings as sectional times are not available, so therefore can it be directly comparable?
Just a question.
MR W – what Timeform theories do you think are unacceptable and why?
Although I’m not sure about the rest of your post the highlighting of those winning distances on Middle Park day did cause the old Cormack eyebrow (and it is considerable) to raise an iota.
Rating of wide distance winning margins has never been easy. It seems the further they win the harder it is to rate accurately. Although it seems illogical maybe there is a case for 3 lbs for the first length, 2.7 for the next, 2.5 for the next and so on. Something of that ilk if not those precise numbers. There may be even more of a case for that when the going is on the soft side and/or when most of the other races on a card have gone to wide margin winners. Illogical but it has a pragmatic feel about it.
Hawk Wing’s Lockinge rating still rankles with many (never, in the history of racing forums, has so much been written by so many about so few).
Hi Cav
The ratings remain on the same scale so I think they are comparable. In an ideal world, we would be able to have sectional data available on a wider basis and not be seen simply to be quoting it when it appears we are doing so just to suit the view we’ve taken. All the ratings provided are done so with as much information available at the time, be that speedfigures, race standards, first 5 standards etc and in some cases sectional times. Obviously the last-named was a factor in in the Frankel rating and not in the Dream Ahead rating.
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