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Geezus mate when do you get time to place a bet?…………does all that help you pick winners?
Personally if I had to go through all that I would pack in racing tomorrow
……….no offence mate just not my thing 
No idea. First time I’ve done it. It helps pass the time, and stops me having a bet. That is the idea. At the same time, I’ve looked at the pedigree of all the main contenders for the Derby, and know a little bit more about them.
I’m keen to follow the Kentucky Durby as well, and I’ll do the figures for that once the Experimental Free handicap comes out at the end of the month.
Well it doesn’t look like Kite Wood is staying…with M Jarvis.
Off to Godolphin by all accounts.
Can’t say that strengthens my ante post hopes in truthWell it doesn’t look like Kite Wood is staying…with M Jarvis.
Off to Godolphin by all accounts.
Can’t say that strengthens my ante post hopes in truthMight as well write the horse off completley.
Really liked the look of Montaff last season as one who should be much better this coming season, channon has dropped his name a few times on teletext, and below is a video of Montaff beating Youmzain home on an all weather track session (obviously take defeat of youmzain with pinch of salt as only a gallop, but Montaff is moving well, digs in well) and looks a nice prospect.
http://www.mickchannon.tv/owner.php?ACHV=true&search=%
Montjeu has had 2 winners in 4 years at epsom (authorized and motivator) 2 from 4 in the irish derby (hurricane run and frozen fire) and 2 from 4 in the grand prix du paris (scorpion and montmartre), and from what I saw of his crop last season Montaff looked the most promising.
Am phoning around for prices tomorrow. Am confident this horse will be lower than 20-1 the day of the derby almost guaranteed.
Nice find Bulwark. Needless to say I am clueless for a suitable Derby choice this far out, and am grasping onto hope that Zacinto stays – unlikely, but you never know.
Wouldn’t hurt to drop a small bundle on Rip Van Winkle @ 14s with the likelihood that that price plummets if he runs a bolter in the 2,000 Guineas. He has the makings of a top class middle-distance horse, and APO’B must have him at the top of the pecking order too – particularly when he’s working these three-year-olds around the Epsom-inspired training track.
Have got my epsom plan together, I’m going to have Montaff as my number two, and jukebox jury as my number one in the race on the basis that no horse by montjeu who has run that well in the racing post chase has ever failed to win at epsom. At 33-1 he looks a brilliant bet as he only needs to improve another 12lbs or so to have a favorites chance, which being by Montjeu pretty much comes as standard from 2 to 3.
He’s not moved to Godolphin has he?
Montaff is 210 on Betfair, with not a penny matched.
Setback?
Hard to say, I would have expected him to be somewhere in the region of 100-1 with bookmakers any way on the basis that he isnt with one of the bigger yards and didnt pick up a pattern race at 2. He’s really a bit of an unknown quantity so to speak until he hits a derby trial, but I think he looks the type to pick up one of the derby trials, thats when his price will come in, I’d take a couple of quid at 210s if its going.
Last year I was sitting on Saoirse Abu for the 1,000 guineas and she was 25-1 with bookmakers, and massive on the exchanges, but took third. Also worth thinking where Nahoodh was in the betting at this time last year, she started at 33-1 on guineas day and arguably should have won with a clear run. Sometimes horses will just go out to massive prices over the winter, particularly if they are from a smaller yard.
Montaff is one I would be hopeful about, but Jukebox Jury is one I would be confident about. Since Montjeu went to stud he has only ever had two juvenile horses with form in the league of Jukebox Jury- Motivator and Authorized (by Jukebox Jury winning the Royal Lodge he is arguably further ahead than either horse), both have won at epsom. To put Jukebox Jury’s RPT run into context, Montjeu also had Frozen Fire who was well beaten in the 2007 RPT on better ground, before running tartan bearer close in the dante and winning the irish derby.
At 33-1, if Jukebox Jury gets there fit and well then IMO they all have to improve past him come epsom, and where it isnt impossible, I’d make his chance of winning at epsom about 5-1, so 33-1 is a bargain. I imagine his price will start to come in as soon as he starts to work, and its very hard to see a Montjeu with a juvenile rating of 115ish not picking up a derby trial, in which case he will not be 33-1.
Also worth remembering that he has rock solid 2yo 7f form with goffs million winner Soul City and Prix Jean Look Lagardere 2nd Milanais. He also has the beating of Roger Charlton’s smart Cityscape in the royal lodge, and if the RPT had have been run on worse ground, it could be argued he would probably have won fairly easily. When you look at the horses that are shorter than him in the betting, you have to ask, should they be?
It’s also worth noting/remembering that connections will need to stump up the supplementary fee as he is not entered.
Indeed, possibly an oversight on their behalf, however he is entered in the irish equivalent, aswell as both guineas. On the basis that it would be absolutely ridiculous not to run at epsom, I’ll stil remain confident.
If I can recall, the Royal Lodge was run at a lightning tempo, suiting JJ to the ground. It’s not to say he remains a top Derby candidate – I’ve seen plenty of Montjeus win races they are not supposed to because of that desired tempo.
On the flipside, there’s not much else on the Derby market that interests me. 33s might be a good bet if he wins a Derby trial and is hacked into 8s or less – then you can lay it off if unconvinced.
If I can recall, the Royal Lodge was run at a lightning tempo, suiting JJ to the ground. It’s not to say he remains a top Derby candidate – I’ve seen plenty of Montjeus win races they are not supposed to because of that desired tempo.
On the flipside, there’s not much else on the Derby market that interests me. 33s might be a good bet if he wins a Derby trial and is hacked into 8s or less – then you can lay it off if unconvinced.
I remember the race well, he was also perfectly positioned out the back aswell, however the race was on gd-fm aswell if I remember which wouldnt have been 100% up his street.
What I like most about him is however is that Montjeu so seldom knocks up juveniles that can compete with the top grade at 2, indeed motivtaor and Authorized didnt until their RPTs on dead ground, yet JJ has already got formlines with all the top juveniles at 7f and a second place in a good ground RPT where the horse that beat him was bringing some great form with him to lay down a good race on those conditions on that day.
JJ has derby winner written all over him IMO.
In an average year maybe. Crowded House is a monster though and not a silly price either.
In an average year maybe. Crowded House is a monster though and not a silly price either.
Crowded House was brilliant in the Racing Post Trophy, watched the race again last night and had forgotten just how impressive he was.
At his price Im not 100% convinced he’s a derby horse however, the ground was good for this years RPT and whee that would have suited him more than JJ, I have a slight suspicion that he may have been the perfect horse for the race on that day, and with the turn of foot he showed could be more of a guineas sort.
The big plus about JJ is there is no doubt whatsoever that he is a derby horse, and he’s e/w value for a crack at it.
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