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If it wins it wins and it may well do, one race is meaningless in the terms of my mind and I will know full well that I will win long term laying the short priced horses I think will be beaten and I think this will be beaten. I wont even blink if it hacks up, its always going to happen from time to time when you lay these animals. Denman winning is a viable option that could happen in this race but as long as the profit figure is above the loss figure over a period of time then this race means nothing. Having said that I fully expect to win today and for Denman to be defeated.
Don’t give up the day job Zoso
My day job is to lay short priced horses and don’t I like Denman at 1.21
You dont see many opportunities like that in a decade let alone a season.Most of you have been brainwashed by the Tsunami type wave of media hype that has surrounded this very good horse. A very good horse is all he is though and he is not a superstar and he is not thrown in by any stretch of the imagination under this penalty. He can still be beaten and it can be classed as an outstanding perfomance today to be beaten giving weight away. He isnt going to go down without a fight but I believe he will go down.
Zoso
You are taking on a horse that has a very good probability of winning, surely better for the long term P/L to take on horses that do not have this kind of profile
I’d agree with Zoso in so far as I make Denman underlaid at ~1/5 and Celestial Gold overlaid at ~14/1. My backing tissue has them at 1/2 and 5/1 respectively. So strictly speaking CG is a ‘value’ bet against D. But when it comes to actually parting with cash I wouldn’t dream of betting a ‘value’ alternative to a horse I rate as odds-on to win. NO BET
Don’t give up the day job Zoso
My day job is to lay short priced horses and don’t I like Denman at 1.21
You dont see many opportunities like that in a decade let alone a season.Most of you have been brainwashed by the Tsunami type wave of media hype that has surrounded this very good horse. A very good horse is all he is though and he is not a superstar and he is not thrown in by any stretch of the imagination under this penalty. He can still be beaten and it can be classed as an outstanding perfomance today to be beaten giving weight away. He isnt going to go down without a fight but I believe he will go down.
Would he need to be a superstar today? Would just being a "very good horse" not suffice against this opposition?
My belief is no it wont be enough, hence why I am laying it at a price of 1.21
It may well win of course that type of thing can happen when you lay very short priced horses. As I said I wont blink if it hacks up and it may well do and prove me wrong but I think it can be beaten. I would need sectioning if I didnt lay this horse at that price after thinking all of that.
My belief is no it wont be enough, hence why I am laying it at a price of 1.21
It may well win of course that type of thing can happen when you lay very short priced horses. As I said I wont blink if it hacks up and it may well do and prove me wrong but I think it can be beaten. I would need sectioning if I didnt lay this horse at that price after thinking all of that.
I completely understand your reasoning if that’s how you like to play and as I’m not having a bet in the race, then I wish you all the luck in the world. I will be the first to congratulate you if you’re correct. Good luck mate,
Mike
Don’t give up the day job Zoso
My day job is to lay short priced horses and don’t I like Denman at 1.21
You dont see many opportunities like that in a decade let alone a season.)
OK – do give up the day job then
I would need sectioning if I didnt lay this horse at that price after thinking all of that.
You need sectioning as your heavily reliant on unknown factors in your decision to lay Denman. You don’t know if CG retains ability, you don’t know if Regal Heights has the improvement needed
These should tell you that the decision to take on Denman is a poor one
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