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‘look at what he actaully beat not what was in the race and he beat nothing.’
11-12, OR 161, Hennessy Gold Cup, first time out, wins by 11 lengths, not even pressed.
Why the hell does form even matter when the above happens?
It matters when they make him favourite for the Gold Cup on the back of it, TC.
(PS. I typed this in my best ‘Benny the Ball’ voice
).look at what he actaully beat not what was in the race and he beat nothing.
lets look what he beat using yardstick handicapping and 1lb per length down to tenth place
142 horse by 11 = 172 performance
135 horse by 19 = 180 performance
151 horse by 20 = 181 performance
151 horse by 23 = 184 performance
152 horse by 26 = 187 performance
143 horse by 28 = 189 performance
145 horse by 29 = 190 performance
135 horse by 32 = 197 performance
139 horse by 37 = 198 performancesame with 2006 Aon Chase, all runners
155 horse by a neck = 165
147 horse by 14.5 = 165
132 horse by 27 = 169
134 horse by 31 = 175
154 horse by 32 = 196Using the "yardstick" , The Grade 3 Hennnessy looks to have been a better race than the G2 Aon and the, RPR awarded to each winner also seem to confirm this.
Denman had seven horses officially rated 140 + horses finish in the first ten, , he also had three 150+ horses in the next five places, where KS only had three in the whole field, which also suggest a stronger race than the AonYou can question the merit of Denmans performance as some have done, but to say he beat nothing is stretching the truth a somewhat
Lotta lotta numbers that reminds me of a lottery ticket
Doesn’t change the fact the 2 that finished behind him are moderate at best and he should not be favourite for the Gold Cup…..totally Nuts!!!!!
Anywy who gives a rats ass what the bookies think
Kauto Star for me!!! "
"There can be only one" so roll on March and let’s see who was right.
Laugh my balls off if they both get stuffed and we all end up with egg on our face
- Total Posts 17716
.look at what he actaully beat not what was in the race and he beat nothing.
lets look what he beat using yardstick handicapping and 1lb per length down to tenth place
142 horse by 11 = 172 performance
135 horse by 19 = 180 performance
151 horse by 20 = 181 performance
151 horse by 23 = 184 performance
152 horse by 26 = 187 performance
143 horse by 28 = 189 performance
145 horse by 29 = 190 performance
135 horse by 32 = 197 performance
139 horse by 37 = 198 performancesame with 2006 Aon Chase, all runners
155 horse by a neck = 165
147 horse by 14.5 = 165
132 horse by 27 = 169
134 horse by 31 = 175
154 horse by 32 = 196Using the "yardstick" , The Grade 3 Hennnessy looks to have been a better race than the G2 Aon and the, RPR awarded to each winner also seem to confirm this.
Denman had seven horses officially rated 140 + horses finish in the first ten, , he also had three 150+ horses in the next five places, where KS only had three in the whole field, which also suggest a stronger race than the AonYou can question the merit of Denmans performance as some have done, but to say he beat nothing is stretching the truth a somewhat
And using the Aon Chase – or yardstick handicapping – isn’t???
Applying your own daft criteria to KS’s first run last season:
158 horse by 21 = 188 performance
147 horse by 29 = 200
153 horse by 52 = 219
160 horse by 60 = 228Using your own principles, would you now admit that KS is not only a 20lb better horse than D, but also a threat to Arkle?
.look at what he actaully beat not what was in the race and he beat nothing.
lets look what he beat using yardstick handicapping and 1lb per length down to tenth place
142 horse by 11 = 172 performance
135 horse by 19 = 180 performance
151 horse by 20 = 181 performance
151 horse by 23 = 184 performance
152 horse by 26 = 187 performance
143 horse by 28 = 189 performance
145 horse by 29 = 190 performance
135 horse by 32 = 197 performance
139 horse by 37 = 198 performancesame with 2006 Aon Chase, all runners
155 horse by a neck = 165
147 horse by 14.5 = 165
132 horse by 27 = 169
134 horse by 31 = 175
154 horse by 32 = 196Using the "yardstick" , The Grade 3 Hennnessy looks to have been a better race than the G2 Aon and the, RPR awarded to each winner also seem to confirm this.
Denman had seven horses officially rated 140 + horses finish in the first ten, , he also had three 150+ horses in the next five places, where KS only had three in the whole field, which also suggest a stronger race than the AonYou can question the merit of Denmans performance as some have done, but to say he beat nothing is stretching the truth a somewhat
Sorry you put a lot of work into that and deserve more respect I apologies.
If Sam had really got at Denman he would have probably doubled or maybe even trippled the winning distance such was his superiority. If I am reading that right he would have been them rated 197. That seems awful high to me……btw I know nothing about ratings never used them in my life.
I gave up on them the day they started saying Flying Bolt was only a few pounds behind Arkle…..he wasn’t within a stone of Arkle and one of the most overrated horses in the history of Steeplechasing (that should start a war
)I don’t quite understand what you are saying about questioning Denman’s performance………to me it ws his performance that has us Kauto fans shaking in our boots…..I can’t be convinced he beat anything worth a rats ass but I know a good horse when I see one and Denman simply looked awesome …..that and that alone is why he is favourite to beat Kauto.
I ask the question again….if it wasnt the "Hennessy" and he had met those horses in a 4 horse at say Hexam giving them the same weight.he would be 1/3 fav and would be expected to win the way he did IMO……how would that have affected his rating and what price do you think he would be for the Gold Cup today?
That’s the question I asked myself and came to the conclusion, he might not just be, as good as he looked.
And using the Aon Chase – or yardstick handicapping – isn’t???
Applying your own daft criteria to KS’s first run last season:
158 horse by 21 = 188 performance
147 horse by 29 = 200
153 horse by 52 = 219
160 horse by 60 = 228Using your own principles, would you now admit that KS is not only a 20lb better horse than D, but also a threat to Arkle?
reet
It is daft, but the reason for using the daft scenario was to try and show how it compared against the higher Grade race like the Aon regarding it’s strength, just like your scenario shows it was a strong race and KS was worth his rating
I could have just chosen to use the OR’s on their own, or the RPR;s
as i stated here
Denman had seven horses officially rated 140 + horses finish in the first ten, , he also had three 150+ horses in the next five places, where KS only had three in the whole field, which also suggest a stronger race than the Aon
it also shows Denman did actually beat some decent horses in Madison De Burlais, Knowhere and Juevieneur
Anyway, i hope that helps in understanding why i posted the daft scenario
The only question in peoples mind should bei, did they run anywhere near their marks.
If just one of those did, then he’s posted a mark of 180+ and poses a very big threat to Kauto Star
As for Arkle i cannot comment, as he was before my time
:
FOF
using same "yardstick" handicapping as above
Best Mate (IRE)
2 shd Seebald (GER)
3 16 Frenchman´s Creek
4 dist Sir Rembrandt (IRE)Had Best Mate beaten Seebald and Frenchmans Creek a similar distance Denman won Hennessy he would have probably been awarded an RPR of around 175 instead of the 164 he was awarded for winning a Class 2 race.
If it had been off levels and BM won same race by 11 lengths, the race would probably have been rated around 171+
You might interpret BM not running to any of those marks, just like you seem to be suggesting Denman didn’t run 180+ or whatever, Corals on other hand think he did and thats why he’s a 6-4 poke for GC with them
Re: Flyingbolt.
Naturally, I must disagree with Fist of Fury that he was overrated.
Flyingbolt won 16 of his first 18 races, including three championship races at the Cheltenham Festival.
He was a 1-5 shot when winning the Champion Chase and is still the shortest-priced winner in the history of that prestigious race.
The next day, he was an unlucky third in the Champion Hurdle, only outpaced after the last by Salmon Spray and Sempervivum.
Like Arkle, he defied crushing burdens in handicaps, carrying more than 12st to easy victories in the Massey-Ferguson Gold Cup and the Irish Grand National.
Even after the illness that wrecked his career, he was able to finish second in the 1969 King George VI Chase at Kempton Park.
He is rated 210 by the respected Timeform organisation, just below Arkle on 212. The third-best chaser in Timeform’s history, Mill House, trails them on 191, with Desert Orchid (187) and Kauto Star (184+) further behind.
Probably the best performance of his career was in the Massey-Ferguson Gold Cup at Cheltenham in December 1965. A burden of 12st 6lb ought to have stopped him, especially on ground so heavy that there was standing water on the track, but the Irish horse won cosily by 15 lengths and at a canter.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
If Denman is not a 180-horse I will eat my ha
…. I can see the it now, Denman jumping Cheltenham two-out, Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer cruising up turning for home………….then what?
..this suggests you have them running on the old course,
in which case 2 of them most likely fall. Clerical error[/color:38y22wdt] Is there an emoticon for D’OH!!
You’re right, FOF[/color:38y22wdt].It was a wonderfully stunning performance by Denman. If you didn’t enjoy a performance like that then there’s no pleasing you. He was giving away a fair amount of weight to a decent, yet not top-class, group of handicappers on his seasonal bow. The best term to describe the manner of his victory is ‘visually stunning’.
If you break it down, though, he will need to improve to trouble the likes of his stable companion and even Exotic Dancer. Of course, there’s every chance he will improve but I wouldn’t touch him at that price for the Gold Cup.
We will know more during the final week of 2007 with Kauto Star & Co. running in the King George and Denman the Lexus.
This battle of the stable stars is very intriguing.
The relentless galloper vs stamina n’ speed.
Are you a Denmaniac or a Stargazer? It’s like Elvis vs The Beatles. You can like ’em both, but you DO have a preference.With his relentless gallop and offensive jumping style, Denman reminds me of 1997 GC hero Mr Mulligan – one of my favourite Gold Cup performances. Would you ride Denman in an attacking, front-running role at Cheltenham?
I ‘d give that horse a smashing ride – providing I took the right course!!
- Total Posts 17716
Bosranic
It was a wonderfully stunning performance by Denman. If you didn’t enjoy a performance like that then there’s no pleasing you. He was giving away a fair amount of weight to a decent, yet not top-class, group of handicappers on his seasonal bow. The best term to describe the manner of his victory is ‘visually stunning’.If you break it down, though, he will need to improve to trouble the likes of his stable companion and even Exotic Dancer. Of course, there’s every chance he will improve but I wouldn’t touch him at that price for the Gold Cup.
We will know more during the final week of 2007 with Kauto Star & Co. running in the King George and Denman the Lexus.
This battle of the stable stars is very intriguing.
The relentless galloper vs stamina n’ speed.
Are you a Denmaniac or a Stargazer? It’s like Elvis vs The Beatles. You can like ’em both, but you DO have a preference.With his relentless gallop and offensive jumping style, Denman reminds me of 1997 GC hero Mr Mulligan – one of my favourite Gold Cup performances. Would you ride Denman in an attacking, front-running role at Cheltenham?
I ‘d give that horse a smashing ride – providing I took the right course!!
To be honest Bosranic, I doubt we’ll really learn much more until Cheltenham. We already know that Denman is a very good horse on soft/heavy ground, and it is unlikely to be much different for the Lexus nor, with the probable small field, is he likely to be tested too much for pace.
What we don’t know, and probably won’t until Gold Cup day, is whether he can travel and jump at a championship pace on good or faster ground.
Won’t stop the ‘Denmanians’ becoming even more rabid though – after he wins the Lexus at 3/1 on; and making him an even sillier price for the GC. 
What pace was his Sun Alliance run at? Time compares very favourably with the Kim Muir which was also run at a good gallop.
Looks like I am in violent agreement with the Rowley File once again – a good read. Have you ever thought of starting a new racing newspaper, prufrock?
It was a wonderfully stunning performance by Denman. If you didn’t enjoy a performance like that then there’s no pleasing you. He was giving away a fair amount of weight to a decent, yet not top-class, group of handicappers on his seasonal bow. The best term to describe the manner of his victory is ‘visually stunning’.
How many times do I have to say I thought he put up a stunning display?
I just don’t think at this moment in time he should be favourite over a horse who has won a Gold Cup and a King George and he is only baby himself……..Kauto Star has proved he can do it and with more style thatn any horse I can remeber for along long time…All Denman proved is he is a high class animal that when he gets his own way is awesome to watch………Dream what’s his name or Charachter Builder are not Kauto Star or Exotic Dancer despite the weight…they are worlds apart and until Denman beats something decent he is no more than a potential Gold Cup Horse…….Kauto is a gold cup horse and a bloody good one at that………..If I hadn’t had a bet I would still favour Kauto by a mile.
- Total Posts 17716
What pace was his Sun Alliance run at? Time compares very favourably with the Kim Muir which was also run at a good gallop.
The sort of pace you would expect a good novice race to be run at, about a couple of classes below that of a championship for experienced horses. It might also be worth bearing in mind that the artificially watered ground rode g/s on Sun Alliance day, and had changed to good by Gold Cup day, (RP time-based ground), a pattern that is likely to repeat this year.
Re: Flyingbolt.
Naturally, I must disagree with Fist of Fury that he was overrated.
Flyingbolt won 16 of his first 18 races, including three championship races at the Cheltenham Festival.
He was a 1-5 shot when winning the Champion Chase and is still the shortest-priced winner in the history of that prestigious race.
The next day, he was an unlucky third in the Champion Hurdle, only outpaced after the last by Salmon Spray and Sempervivum.
Like Arkle, he defied crushing burdens in handicaps, carrying more than 12st to easy victories in the Massey-Ferguson Gold Cup and the Irish Grand National.
Even after the illness that wrecked his career, he was able to finish second in the 1969 King George VI Chase at Kempton Park.
He is rated 210 by the respected Timeform organisation, just below Arkle on 212. The third-best chaser in Timeform’s history, Mill House, trails them on 191, with Desert Orchid (187) and Kauto Star (184+) further behind.
Probably the best performance of his career was in the Massey-Ferguson Gold Cup at Cheltenham in December 1965. A burden of 12st 6lb ought to have stopped him, especially on ground so heavy that there was standing water on the track, but the Irish horse won cosily by 15 lengths and at a canter.
Well old pal I am not a timeform Man and never will be……I refuse to believe the difference between Arkle and Flying Bolt was 2. What is that pounds or what?
Flying Bolt was as good horse, no doubt that, but he was no Arkle.
Wasn’t the yard stick they used to get that rating a horse called Height of Fashion ? If I remeber right Arkle had beaten giving a huge amount weight……wasn’t it almost 3 stone? I seem to remember Brasher being in the same race the next or previous year and running a great race against Arkle on the same terms…….anyway Flying Bolt beat HO giving almost as much weight and that started the ball rolling the next thing they were claiming he was only a few pounds behind Arkle. Many people totally disagreed and were actually annoyed about it….I can remember that much………Height o Fashion was a dour stayer and very one paced….a proffesional runner up..and not a great yardstick in my book.
As a result horses started running for the hills and most of FB’s races were poor affairs. He won a not too good Champion Chase and then went for the champion Hurdle ran well but was totally outclassed. I remember that race like it was yesterday,,,,,Salmon Spray won very very easily and sempervivum…. a very good handicapper finished second…wasn’t Spartan General 4th?…Flying Bolt was outclassed that day but it was over hurdles. but his fans reckoned he was a good thing…….very good performance all the same.
I was at Ken Olivers when he finished second in the King George and there wasn’t much wrong with him that day I can tell you. Rhona had him 100% spot onand we fancied the pants off him and I lost a weeks wages on him. He ran a great race finsihing second to the fav Gordon Richards’s very good chaser Titus Oats and the Laird was 3rd………..Flying Bolt was recieving 7lbs from the both………..Arke would have beat them getting 7lbs with 3 legs
Anyway it’s along time ago and I had the pleasure of sitting on his back once so I have a soft spot for him………Just can’t swallow he was in the same league as Arkle……So when I say the most overrated what I mean is against Arkle……….was there any other 3m horses better than Flying Bolt at his best over fences?…….Mill House maybe………Kauto Star potentially and the list stops there. Sorry Denman fans maybye next year
)
Clerical error[/color:38y22wdt] 
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