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Where are the timelords when you need them.<br>All Japanese racing is conducted at a generous tempo.This race is the exception which proves the rule.If you take a base of 12s/furlong and compare the variation between all his races on the RP site,this is shown to be the significantly slowest career performance.A note of warning;he can be ridden handy re his Kikuka Sho comments in running,but apparently settles better with the exaggerated waiting.<br>His apparent ability to accelerate through the bend may be somewhat illusory as the leaders are already trucking along and Japanese riders normally wait to straighten,correctly in my opinion,before asking for maximum effort.<br>Whilst I agree there is something of Secretatiat about him ,Arc day the standard Japanese firm conditions will not prevail,the prevalent clean running of Japanese group racing is unlikely to be evident and going via the cape may mean sitting six deep.<br>Excluding the Japanese Derby,where Kent Desormeux rode a horse who according to the ratings had only a runner’s shot,Deep Impact’s sole defeat occasioned a race where foreign riders where involved at the business end.<br>Its not that Take is poor technically but tactically he’s not versatile.If,however he were to be lost in a taxi Arc day and Dettori,Le Maire,Soumillion or one of a number of others were to be pressganged into service it wouuld be race on.I’m likewise assuming that Ballydoyle has a runner and that the the field is of 16 runners<br> Grant.
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With Heart’s Cry having finished an excellent third in the King George, I really can’t see beyond Deep Impact for the Arc now.
I can’t wait for Mr Haigh’s piece in the Weekender on Wednesday.
:biggrin:
I have one major worry and that is the ground. If the ground is good or faster then its Deep Impact all the way but if the ground is soft then things become much more interesting. Shirocco, Rail Link and Gentlewave would all come into it then and don’t forget HR though I’m not totally convinced HR will run.
I’m going to resist piling in for a while as I don’t think the price is changing much.
A word of caution. Whilst Deep Impact has looked impressive and is great on the eye the best horse he’s come across so far is Heart’s Cry who lowered his colours. Other than Hearts Cry he’s taken on nothing rated above 122 and the highest rating Deep Impact has achieved is 127 which leaves him rated six pounds behind Hurricane Run.
Ok the horse can only destroy what’s put infront of him but it’s so easy to get carried away by something that’s visually impressive.
Mind you don’t get your fingers burned. ;)
That’s not to say Deep Impact can’t win at all. I’d just advise no-one puts their mortgage on it lol. :ohno:
http://japanracing.jp/_news2006/060817-02.html
Any views on this ?
I was watching the QEII on the BBC last Saturday and I swear that it was mentioned that for the 1st time Japanese punters would be able to bet direct into the PMU pool-I believe they couldn’t when El Condor Pasa came 2nd in 1999.
I thought to myself that this meant that he was certain to be sent off favourite for the race. When the declarations came out and it was correctly decided that the Arc didn’t have enough runners for it to be designated the Tierce race for Sunday-I think for only the 2nd or 3rd time in the last 25 years-I knew that he would be odds-on and actually thought he might well go off at 1-5 or even 1-10 as virtually all the local money would be pumped into the 2nd race and the not the Arc and the PMU would be flooded by money from Japan for DI.
I’m told that "Statto" advised the TV audience on Sunday but did anyone write about it in advance as a possibility-even though it was an absolute certainty.
At what time during the afternoon did the bookamking firms realize what was happening? At the stage when shortly after the gates had opened there were no race cards left and 2 30 yard lines of Japanese bettors queueing to bet with Japanese speaking PMU operatives?
At the PMU witching hour-which I think is 1315-when he was 1-10 or only at the time when the prices flashed onto the screens with about 35 mins to go and he was still 1-10?
Quote: from Brevityy on 3:30 pm on Oct. 4, 2006[br]There was an article predicting as much in the Post on Sunday morning.
Thanks as I never saw the Racing Post as by the time we got to Longchamp there were no posts and more unbelievably no racecards left.
I’m pretty sure that the pools weren’t co-mingled ie. you had to be there, or at any rate in France, to bet into them.
The money in the PMU was simply what everyone had brought with them from Japan, for themselves, family, friends, colleagues etc.
Of course it seems odd that anyone should queue up to back a horse at such a short price when bookies are offering 9-4 against, but the Tote system is all that Japanese punters know. The fact that the JRA had produced a handout explaining how to bet on the PMU probably helped too.
Another interesting point was that they were betting win only – the place return on Deep Impact was only marginally shorter than he would have paid for a win.
The Post piece was the first mention of the likely effects in that paper, incidentally, but far from the first anywhere.
Quote: from Mr Frisk on 3:44 pm on Oct. 4, 2006[br]I’m pretty sure that the pools weren’t co-mingled ie. you had to be there, or at any rate in France, to bet into them.
The money in the PMU was simply what everyone had brought with them from Japan, for themselves, family, friends, colleagues etc.
Of course it seems odd that anyone should queue up to back a horse at such a short price when  bookies are offering 9-4 against, but the Tote system is all that Japanese punters know. The fact that the JRA had produced a handout explaining how to bet on the PMU probably helped too.
Another interesting point was that they were betting win only – the place return on Deep Impact was only marginally shorter than he would have paid for a win.
The Post piece was the first mention of the likely effects in that paper, incidentally, but far from the first anywhere.
You may well be right but isn’t the price on the screens at the track that says PMU-the price that each horse was at the time with only PMU shop money and the PMU+H is the price that each horse is currently.
I believe Deep Impact was 1-10 when the windows on the track opened-i’m sure there’s no way that any Japanese racegoers braved the PMU bars in the morning!
That’s true, but there were at least 10,000, and possibly more like 20,000 Japanese racegoers, most of whom had been in Paris for several days. They were only there to back one horse, and would have had the chance to do so well before raceday.
The level of betting in PMU pools prior to raceday is pretty light, and I’d guess that the machine was no match for the single-minded punt that started to materialise last week.
When the gates opened, there were several thousand Japanese punters waiting to get in, who then went straight to the PMU to get their money on, and off to the terraces to get a good position for the big race about eight hours before it happened. The support for Deep Impact was therefore so relentless that his price did not shift from 1-10 until shortly before the off.
I’m also led to believe that money punted away from the course (and possibly outside the Paris area) is only fed into the on-course pool about 10 minutes before the off, which might explain why Deep Impact eventually "drifted" from 1-10 to 1-2.
Yeah there are other PMU places around Paris – at Gallieni certainly, right next to a hotel was a PMU place combined with a cafe.
As for racecards, they had run out by 11am at the very latest. I was looking forward to bringing 30 odd back like I had done last year, but those damn Japs cleared Longchamp out! ;)
I managed to blag 3 while I was getting my press badge though :cool: – 1 for me, 1 for my Japanese friend, 1 for my Italian friend whose birthday it was the day after the Arc (listing people so no-one can accuse me of being selfish! hehe)
What (approx) price did DI start at then . He paid 1.40 for the place which is incredible if he was 1.50 for the win, as suggested in an earlier post.
Quote: from davidbrady on 4:56 pm on Oct. 5, 2006[br]What (approx) price did DI start at then . He paid 1.40 for the place which is incredible if he was 1.50 for the win, as suggested in an earlier post.<br>
You’re betting blind if you bet to place or a cheval-each way-as the place price is never shown on the screens in France.
The Japanese obviously lumped on in an all or nothing style.
It’s something to bear in mind though – the fact that it’s not displayed on the screen means that a lot of punters forget that it’s there.
I went to Paris in 1988 to see my beloved Mtoto run in the Arc, and had what was at the time, and indeed seems even now, an eye-watering amount of money on him. The crushing disappointment of seeing him run an unlucky second was then compounded when it turned out that he paid only marginally less for a place than he would have done for the win.
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