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So we’ve had over 250 races on the sand since the first day of November and plenty of recent all weather form for the markets to digest and hopefully over-factor into the races over the next few weeks.
I’m interested in looking at horses who last ran on the grass. They may be overlooked in terms of no recent sand form in amongst horses who’ll have plenty of it from November and the break of at least a month does no harm in keeping them partially hidden. I also want to concentrate on trainers who have showed over the last 5 Decembers that they are good at this sort of thing i.e. profitable. These lads and lasses are…
A G Newcombe
A J Mccabe
B Smart
D K Ivory
G A Butler
H Morrison
I Semple
J M Bradley
J Pearce
J R Boyle
J S Moore
K A Ryan
M J Attwater
M Mullineaux
Miss Gay Kelleway
P W Chapple-Hyam
R A Fahey
R M Beckett
S C Williams
Stef LiddiardSo the filters will be…
–Any of the above listed trainers with all weather runners in December.
–Last ran on the flat in the UK on grass.
–Finished in the top 9 last time out.Starts from tomorrow.
Hi Paul
Another interesting thread, good start as well! close with Djalalabad! Will be interested to see how this turns out.
Though not in your trainer filter, Raimond Ridge would be an interesting contender for your theory. With 0 wins from 16 on the turf he has run 3 times on the grass since winning on the Lingfield pollytrack the last time he was sighted. He returns to the polly tomorrow where he really has so much in his favour with an abundance of pace. Shaw doesn’t fill with confidence off absences however
Love You Louis and Piscean are runners that spring to mind who were good prices returning to the AW.
It’s definitely something worth looking at, often runners true form is masked by having been running on the turf. Good luck
Cheers, Tim. Will keep an eye out for the horses you mention. Looking at horses that have done it before could be interesting.
Thought Djalalabad was going to get up yesterday, weak enough finish by the jockey, imo.
Just one for today…
02/12/2010 14:30:00 Officer In CommandSaturday and Sunday
04/12/2010 14:55:00 Earlsmedic
05/12/2010 13:00:00 Rosewood Lad
05/12/2010 14:00:00 SparticBudget day selections…
07/12/2010 12:50 Officer In Command
07/12/2010 14:20 The Fifth Member
07/12/2010 15:20 Durham TownWell done Cavelino, this is an intriguing strategy which is paying off at the moment, I will continue to read with interest! Is this theory based on the differing marks between the AW on flat then, or just these particular trainers decision to run their horse on the AW after running on the turf and the transitional effect between the two?
No marks involved, Rich. Just following trainers who have had success transiting horses between grass and sand in December. I’m hoping the combination of no all weather form from November and at least a month since a run will keep them hidden enough from the market to make a profit.
So far
Dec 1-8
Runs…9
Wins…3
SR%…33.33%
Profit…+5.91 points (estimated BFSP before commission)
ROI%…65.66%No selections today.
Friday…
10/12/2010 12:20 Cheylesmore
10/12/2010 15:45 Koha
10/12/2010 16:15 Two CertaintiesWell done Cav, Two certainties. When looking at that race I would probably have glossed over him, but he did get a tick in the box with the draw, which I have been studying with regards to the AW.
Thanks again, may they keep coming.
Cheers Berkoboy, the more they get glossed over the better!
Dec 1-8
Runs…12
Wins…4
SR%…33.33%
Profit…+17.06 points (estimated BFSP before commission)
ROI%…142.16%Weekend…
11/12/2010 20:20:00 Emerald Girl
12/12/2010 12:45:00 Sapphire Girl
- Total Posts 17716
Keep up the good work Cav.
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