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Board seems very quiet at the moment?
John Gosden and Godolphin are represented in Deauville today.
GP 3 Prix Minerve (How i would price up the race in Brackets)
Guide
1. ALPINE ROSE (14-1), Ladbrokes (6-1)are making her shorter in the market than SHEMINA, assuming Soumillion as the pick they are wrong!,her form chance wouldn`t be obvious either using lines through Saturine (Who she was lucky to beat in my opinion——poorly ridden by Hayley Turner), she`s improving somewhat but i couldn`t rate her more than 40 on what she as shown,that leaves her with 10kg to find with the Gosden runner in my humble opinion!!
2. SHEMINA (11-2) was 46-1 and thrid string when showing nothing on her debut,she improved to win an half decent race at Chantilly before going on to chase home ASTROLOGIE (1/2l) at Longchamp last time out,i thought the jockey was outmanoeuvered and it might have cost her the race, positives are,she`s improving and the slower ground should offset her being a bit onepaced!
3.KAREEMAL (8-1), Laddies and Coral are getting a bit over excited in my opinion by going 7-2 and 100-30 respectively, i know she won 15l on her debut but lets put a bit of perspective on that form,their was nothing in that field that has come out and shown the remotest form,she was ridden out until the last 20 metres and the time was a slow 2,22.9 for the 2200 metres,this is like stepping up from the conference league to the championship in one hit,plenty to prove at this level despite having obvious scope for improvement!
4.ASTROLOGIE (3-1), Lads are 3`s and Corals 5-2, she`s certainly improving and has got a useful turn of foot,Fabre runners are a bit “hit and miss“ at the moment,however,she`s got the form in the book and looks the biggest opponent to the Gosden filly!
5. DEL RE MI (6-4), Lads are 100-30 and Corals 5-2, you should break their hands off to get these prices, very unlucky not to win a GP2 on her last visit to France,improved again to win at Newmarket,the extra 100 metres is a bonus and at last she as her optimum underfoot conditions, from all the evidence ive got at hand she`s got 5-6kg in hand, i will be very disappointed if she doesn`t win with something to spare, the 100-30 is massive!!
6. COSMIC FIRE (14-1) No mug but more exposed than most,on the positive side,this track will suit her come from behind tactics and i wouldn`t be surprised if she ran into a place
7. TANGASPEED (16-1), decent in her own right but lacks the scope to improve much and the form of her Vichy win is open to question,fairly easy to discount!
8. CAROLINA DIRECTA (40-1) Lets win a little maiden at Hamburg and then go for a decent Group 3 in France………owners are nuts in my opinion,anything better than last will be a bonus,her form comes knowhere near to matching this lot!
12 points to play with
10 win DAR RE MI at Ladbrokes very generous 100-30
2 (Couple place) DAR RE MI / COSMIC FIRE (Both horses must finish in the first three!)
ps……Do Ladbrokes know something that i don`t ?, they have moved price out to 100-30!!
For those who didn`t see the race:
DEL RE MI (3.6 Tote) was a comfortable winner, pushed out to win by 1.5l, hope some of you took the advice to take the Laddies price!, also managed to lay KAREEMAH who came last,like i mentioned the price was totally wrong,most of the horse he beat on his debut where useless!
Earlier in the day DESERT CHILL started favourite (Only god knows why!!) but was easily put in place,the winner SAFROUA got up on the line and won by a head,however,he caused plenty of interferance and their was a long stewards enquiry and objection, to my surprise nothing happened……………i need to get the latest rules on interferance from the French authorities as this sort of thing is not usually condoned, if it was a foreign winner i would have bet on disqualification!
Good analysis, Tony. An easy win for Dar Re Mi in the end and Ladbrokes even decided to knock her out 10-3 during the day!
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