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TheTinMan87.
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- March 12, 2024 at 20:52 #1685086
On the betting front a good day if you like betting shorties, a pretty horrible one if you don’t. I was firmly in the latter camp. Unfortunately, I think the first day quite often lends itself to lots of short ones.
Worrying, if you have backed Henderson horses. It wouldn’t surprise me if Sir Gino was pulled on Friday, particularly as the owner has another entry.
I think ground had a big bearing on the opening race. I don’t think it would be a surprise if the form was reversed on a quicker surface. For me the two milers finished second and third. The Irish completely dominated the English in the Arkle. The winner looked something of a reformed character. Tale of two Kim Bailey horses in the Ultima, one got a top ride, and won comfortably, the other didn’t. How many times has Cobden won a chase stuck out wide this season? I suspect not many. In a similarly run race, I think Lossiemouth would have had too much pace for State Man in today’s Champion Hurdle. She won easily enough today, but speed is her big asset. A more experienced version of Lantry Lady would probably have finished a much closer third behind Lossiemouth. I find the Joseph O’Brien stable next to impossible under both codes. It’s difficult to say anything other than Lark In The Mornin’s previous performances bore no resemblance to today’s win. Add in he was pulled several times when the ground was soft. Was that just a smokescreen? Potential non-stayer and poor jumper Corbett’s Cross bolts away in the last. I would like to see him do that again in a much better race before getting too excited.
Hopefully, Ballyburn doesn’t disappoint tomorrow, and there is something for those who like an outsider, or two.
March 12, 2024 at 21:32 #1685099Dreadful day for me.
Liked both Kim Bailey runners but sided with Trelawne. That worked out well for me lol. He looked wrong from the second the tape went up.
Had so many Antepost bets down the pan with Gaelic Warrior switched away from the Turners. Didn’t back him for the Arkle at all and watched on in dismay as he destroyed the opposition.
Love Envoi was my Nap of the day w/o Lossiemouth and couldn’t believe how quickly she folded. The conditions were perfect for her and the yard seemingly thought they had her in top form.
Had Lark In The Mornin in my Betslip but after a quick check on RP showed he’d been withdrawn not once, but twice due to soft going, I ruled him out. Another tough pill to swallow.
Had Apple Away in the last at 11/2 w/o both Mullins runners. Was super confident but she was absolutely legless at the end.
Overall, I’d say that dark day of the Constitution Hill & Marine Nationale withdrawals will end up costing me a fortune.
I don’t think Gaelic Warrior runs in the Arkle if Marine Nationale turns up and we all know what The Hill would’ve done to that Champion Hurdle field.March 12, 2024 at 21:51 #1685103Great day for me
Had Slade steel antepost nrnb straight after the drf
Got on gaelic before the plunge yesterday and a small distance bet
Chose the right Bailey horse in the ultima
Put zero effort into the boodles and one of the 3 horses my pin landed on was larkinthemorningNo bet in the champion hurdle, I put up a 2pt win on state man at 7/1 last march on fatjockey but forgot to bloody place the bet myself. Something I was quite happy about when it was announced the hill was staying hurdling.
Didn’t fancy lossie or corbetts so lost in those two but can’t win them all
the best horse, with the best form/highest rating won every graded race which always makes things easier
And generally the horse with the 2nd highest rating finished 2nd
I’m sure there are shocks to come
But 11 of Willie’s last 12 odds on shots at the festival have won and the only one that didn’t was GDC who was in the process of winning by half the length of the straight.
March 12, 2024 at 22:11 #1685110Ante-post bets – State Man @ 6/1 and Lossiemouth @ 2/1 – saved my day.
I didn’t think it was a vintage Supreme, but I did think Gaelic Warrior was an exceptional Arkle winner.
State Man doesn’t do more than he has to and won the Champion Hurdle more easily than the margin suggests, but I’d say it was only the third-best performance on the card (Corbett’s Cross bolted in later on) and the fourth-best visually (Lossiemouth different gear to that lot in the Mares’ Hurdle).
I really enjoyed it but, as oft stated, not having my senses polluted by the sound of the racing media helps a lot.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"March 12, 2024 at 22:11 #1685111It was a good day. Small wins on the first two races courtesy of free bets. I did the State Man/Lossiemouth odds on double which paid something like 11/8. Then Lark In The Mornin landed a nice bet, with Harsh being placed at a big price.
I have also put on a Willie Mullins accumulator. State Man and Lossiemouth have landed legs 1 and 2. There are 4 more to go. 3 tomorrow: Ballyburn, Fact To File and El Fabiolo. The final leg is Dinoblue in the Mares Chase.
I thought Gaelic Warrior was the star of the day. You are never quite sure what you are going to get with him but he is undeniably box office. He looked like the winner every step of the way today.
And well done to Kim Bailey and David Bass for keeping the home flag flying.
March 12, 2024 at 23:00 #1685128One winner in Chianti Classico.
I’m not a favourite backer, so the Mullins wins i wouldnt have backed.I was pretty sure in the morning that the ground conditions would throw up a few surprises, so each ways at big prices was part of my betting tactics on Day 1. Cheltenham usually throws up a few throughout the 4 days.
However, the Irish are so far ahead of ‘the rest’ these days over the jumps, those days seem to have gone.Tomorrow looks a similar sort of day to today, so i’m expecting slim pickings, and have therefore limited my bets (or bets planned).
Purely from a punting pov i like the look of Thursday’s card – more of the races then look wide open.
March 12, 2024 at 23:13 #1685132Decent profit today, on Corbett’s Cross (because market rival Embassy gardens is by Shantou, a red flag for me), Lossiemouth (which was buying money) and e/w Miss manor (PP paying 6 place)s. Main winner was Gaelic Warrior, his last run was too bad to be true; I also backed him twice in error, went to correct the mistake, then wondered if the universe was trying to tell me something, so let it ride.
March 13, 2024 at 00:42 #1685158I’m slightly up on the day chuffed I had the Ultima winner. For day one I found it difficult to get excited. Why wasn’t Lossiemouth in the Champion!!
The more I know the less I understand.
March 13, 2024 at 02:30 #1685162Down on the day – a couple of placed efforts but one of those days where I would have had trouble picking the winner of a walkover lol.
Happy that The Warrior did the business to shut up the naysayers after that DRF run – hopefully they will now stop trying to make the running with him (as he was always held up as a hurdler) and next season’s QMCC could be a belter with him, a returning Energumene and potentially El Fab/Jonbon/Edwardstone clashing.
State Man was again the no frills professionals proffessional and did exactly what it says on the tin and as such will no doubt still not get his proper respect. Will be interesting to see just exactly who turns up against him at Punchestown.
Lossiemouth has a touch of class even at a trip that I don’t think was her ideal – for the love of god I hope connections have no more thoughts about running in the French Champion Hurdle over 3m1f. Hoping another year on her back will see further physical improvement (it will be needed) to see her become a genuine Champion Hurdle contender.
Corbetts Cross was visually the most impressive and while I think connections might roll the dice with him in next year’s Gold Cup (not sure he is up to that level), I could easily see him being a National horse – although it did make me wonder about just what a damn shame it was that Grangeclare West (who absolutely played with him at the DRF) got injured before Cheltenham.
Finally, thoughts very much with the connections (the grooms especially) of both Highland Hunter and Ose Partir who we lost in the Ultima and Boodles – Highland Hunter especially with him just a week removed from leading the procession at Keagan Kirkby’s funeral.
As much as we love this sport, at times it can be a cruel heartless b*tch.
March 13, 2024 at 02:39 #1685163Very nice words, LD.
I’m not a favourite backer and most of the races were very good, Gaelic Warrior was breathtaking to say the least, but I was too far away from the winners enclosure.
Most outcomes were just too easy to predict. The surprise factor was missing. People with zero knowledge about NH racing, but using the help of AI software could have had 4-5 winners today.
Apart from the Arkle only time will tell how good the form of the races was. They should get rid of that 4 year old claiming handicap.
March 13, 2024 at 06:45 #1685165Ok , had slade steel e.w in a couple of e.w lucky 15s , Il Etat temps e.w and Famous Bridge e.w in the Ultima , just missed out on champion hurdle tc and then used a free bet on Cobetts cross , did have a couple of State Man anteposts , one done with the others non runners but I’ve 6s running over to Corach at 25s for the GC , other 2 are non runners
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
March 13, 2024 at 07:03 #1685174Rich Ricci needs a new tailor.
March 13, 2024 at 07:10 #1685177Rumour is you can pick out Ricci at Cheltenham on Google earth …
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
March 13, 2024 at 07:55 #1685192Okay day for me as first days go, couple of places at nice odds in the Boodles from Harsh and Telmesomethinggirl a long way behind Lossiemouth, no winners. As you say lots of shorties won and they aren’t my bag but lots of shorties will win at Cheltenham and I perhaps didn’t pick my battles wisely enough on the day, found myself drawn to taking on favs who I didn’t like but I probably didn’t like who I was taking them on with enough to part with cash. Need to remind myself if I wouldn’t take on this horse with something at a normal Saturday meeting why am I getting involved here?
Enjoyed the racing though some very impressive performances from Lossiemouth, Gaelic Warrior, Corbetts Cross and a competitive race in the Champion. Don’t think it was a strong Arkle or Supreme behind the winners and State Man was below his best but got the job done. NH Chase was quite grim viewing behind the winner and the Boodles was its usual brutal race where one of my selections unfortunately passed away in the carnage. RIP Ose Partir and any others who passed on the day.
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