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“Timeform’s statistical jockey dashboard – no human input – has him well above the average jockey”.
————————————————————————————————–That makes it sound as if Timeform’s opinion of David Maxwell is that he’s a well above the average jockey. That’s far from the truth.
Of Maxwell’s last 200 rides 65 (32.5%) started 2/1 or less (and that’s even with his reputation) and included in them were 33 odds-on shots. ie 16.5% of his last 200 rides were odds-on.
You talk about “Whatever your eyes tell you, the facts could not be clearer. To continue dipsuting them is like arguing black is white”… But when a jockey rides in far more uncompetitive races than a top jockey, on horses with good or excellent chances of winning… There is far more room to move around and therefore far easier to “run to form”.
Am not absolutely certain what “ran to form” means in their criteria, but presumably it means within X number of pounds of its best. So it is very possible for one of David Maxwell’s rides to “run to form” in second place… but be beaten when he should have won.
Reading some of the Timeform analysis it is patently obvious Timeform do not believe he is as good as you are making out, Steeplechasing… And you don’t need to go back far.
If you’ve got Timeform, look up what they say about:22nd March Newbury: Ballybentragh.
17th March Chepstow: Mulinas.That’s two in only his last 11 rides they think would have won with a better ride.
…And if looking up other rides that lost by narrow(ish) margins you’ll see comments like: “owner rider’s well known limitations on display”… And “defeat snatched from the jaws of victory”.
Value Is EverythingMr Maxwell puts plenty of money into the game and is entitled to ride his horses. He met the criteria for riding in the Grand National and gave his horse an acceptable standard ride.
But I cannot accept the idea he is a good or even above average jockey. His limitations are all too obvious. If anyone backs one of his horses, they have to realise their selection is not going to get a lot of assistance from the saddle. It should be factored into the decision to back any of his horses. Personally speaking, I never back him.
As for the two rides identified by Timeform: I think a better jockey would have won on the horse at Chepstow but I think they are being a little harsh on him at Newbury. I don’t think his horse found a lot off the bridle whereas Harry Cobden’s horse found plenty for pressure.
Ginger, I had and have no opinion either way abut Maxwell, but I did suspect under the barrage of negativity on social media – close to hateful at times – people were targeting and laughing mainly at his riding style, and focussing on times he ‘fell off’.
I then went to look specifically for stats because, assuming the algorithms are properly programmed, stats do not lie. Those charts were what I found. You make strong points about the price of his mounts, and maybe Timeform would do well to add an A/E measurement, which, I think, would produce more accuracy. At the moment they do not have that. It might be available by way of a query on Horseracebase; I’ll see what I can find.
Even allowing for a lower performance under A/E, isn’t he entitled to a compensatory allowance given the age, race fitness, and experience of those he is being directly compared with? And not least the fact that most are pros, people making a living in a very hard business.
“He met the criteria for riding in the Grand National and gave his horse an acceptable standard ride.”
This is what matters. He was very conscious of the need to ride safely- his interview on Nick Luck’s show was very good; he’s intelligent enough to see the big picture and know that riding competently in this race of all races was important way beyond avoiding “ha ha Maxwell fell off again, the dope” comments.
I’m very pleased for him that he got round and managed 6th which is a good day’s work- not sure that any of the pros would’ve finished much closer on that horse, he’s a nice safe conveyance with a little bit of class but wasn’t stonkingly well handicapped or anything.
BTW, I discovered today that Timeform now have Jumpability Ratings for horses and jockeys. You’ll see some of them mentioned in this piece. Timeform’s David Johnson tells me they are not available to the public and he has no current timeline as to when they will be.
Aha, I just double checked that page and they have removed the Jockey ratings: from memory they had Bryony in 3rd, Ruby in 5th and Bryony’s old adversary Robbie Dunne in the 100s (I think it was 127). Should have saved an offline copy. The Jumpability reference remains for I Am Maximus.
“Jumpability Ratings for jockeys.”
😳
That could mean something very different to what they actually mean.
Very interesting that they deleted it after I had messaged D Johnson with a question. Too wary of upsetting jocks.
Turned over at 4/9 in the first one at Hexham today. Maxwell’s third odds-on defeat in the space of five weeks. In fact he’s had four rides this YEAR (2024) on odds-on favs and all of them lost.
I admire his Corinthian spirit, but you’d think he might have smelt at rat when Richie Mclernon let him sail for home 3 hurdles out
As I said earlier in the thread you can make money backing against him , he seems a nice man …..but he’s a very average jockey and you have to use that to your advantage , if your backing him at odds on then it’s time to step back and reflect on your punting ….
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