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David Maxwell oh dear

Home Forums Horse Racing David Maxwell oh dear

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  • #1679159
    Avatar photoIanDavies
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 13000

    Sincere apologies if this sounds like aftertiming, but me and those like me who study Points and Hunters’ Chases cleaned up here, partly for the reasons HDLG states.

    Once Bennys King came out, Time Leader was the only one I wanted to be with and part of that was that, in the context of these races, he had an accomplished rider in Huw Edwards.

    And Huw could claim 7lb, whereas owner-rider Maxwell, a man who would surely never get offered an outside ride in a million years, couldn’t claim at all.

    We are all still trying to figure out how Time Leader ever hit 4.3 pre race on the machine and how Cat Tiger (who recent Auteuil form was gently regressive as well) was odds on.

    There aren’t many of these races – don’t bet on them if they’re not your bag, or you’re too lazy to do the hard yards and get to know the relatively-good jockeys from the not-so-good ones (massive factor in these races).

    As for Maxwell riding against pros, you’ve got to look for value in a knee jerk market.

    If he’s won on a few steering jobs lately, don’t go taking a short price about him.

    But if he’s fallen off a few lately (the reason not to ever take a short price about him!) take a look at anything he rides at gigantic odds, because he is always trying, he buys horses with ability and he will pop up sometimes, often when the market least expects it.

    I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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    #1679164
    Helcatmudwrestler
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    • Total Posts 301

    Stats last five years not too bad , 32 PC win rate , only 22 quid down level stake all rides , added bonus he puts buckets loads cash and employment into the sport in UK.

    #1690381
    Illavim
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    • Total Posts 650

    Fair play to him, he stayed on board and finished 6th in the National :yahoo:
    That is some achievement, and he must be over the moon, well done Mr Maxwell!

    #1690384
    Marlingford
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    • Total Posts 1576

    I was really pleased to see Maxwell come in sixth, what a great experience it must have been for him.

    He invests a lot of money in the sport and is clearly very enthusiastic about it, and I don’t think a lot of the criticism and mockery he receives is fair. He may not be the best jockey, but he is clearly a competent one.

    #1690386
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 31975

    I think he’s great.
    He’s improved quite a lot over the years.
    Will never be a top amateur,let alone equal to the best pros, but so what.

    We need a new Duke Of Alberqueque. :good:

    Value Is Everything
    #1690390
    Avatar photoEx RubyLight
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    • Total Posts 3851

    He deserves a lot of credit for completing today’s race. With so many finishers and four classy horses finishing 1st to 4th I think he produced a great riding performance.

    Well done to him.

    #1690391
    Avatar photoRefuse To Bend
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    • Total Posts 1766

    Was a good interview with him today on ITV.

    "Life is timeless, days are long when you're young"

    #1690397
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 6126

    DM’s strike rate is miles ahead of Derek O’Connor’s. And it’s 3 percentage points ahead of Sean Bowen and only about 1 point behind Cobden. Timeform’s statistical jockey dashboard – no human input – has him well above the average jockey.

    #1690398
    Avatar photoTonge
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    • Total Posts 2778

    I hate this. Glad that Maxwell and his mount survived on this occasion but it’s the last thing racing needs. Racing is a dangerous sport. Greatest threat to its survival is fatalities (not whip use, which is inexplicably the focus of the BHA). A horse is more likely to die in a race if it is ridden by an amateur or conditional. This is an industry employing thousands of people, channelling millions into the treasury. It cannot be threatened by the “National Velvet” obsession of its archaic governing body.

    #1690402
    Marlingford
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    • Total Posts 1576

    Tonge, I agree with the principle of much of what you’ve said, while still disagreeing re Maxwell!

    While I can believe amateurs are more dangerous in general, that will surely be due to inexperience.

    Maxwell meets the requirements for number of winners ridden under Rules to participate in the race. Therefore I can’t see how whether he is paid or not makes any difference. He’s had multiple clear rounds over the National fences previously in other races too.

    Nobody seemed to mind amateurs when it was Sam Waley-Cohen. There can be few jockeys with as good a record over the National fences as he had.

    #1690403
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 6126

    Tonge, did you read my post?

    #1690406
    Illavim
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    • Total Posts 650

    Do statistics show more horses have died when ridden by amateurs or conditionals?
    How do jockeys become professionals without going through the ranks of being amateurs/ conditional?
    How do the figures (if available) compare with the numbers of horses breaking down on the flat due to dodgy breeding?

    #1690408
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 31975

    Joking aside. Maxwell is no longer anywhere near as bad as he used to be.
    He’s a pretty good amateur, although no Waley-Cohen or (of his time) Marcus Armytage who have both won the Grand National. He’s better than most punters give him credit for. Therefore because of his reputation it puts punters off and the odds go out to better value than a well thought of top professional jockey. So is now surprise his £ stake figure is better than most.

    His Timeform Dashboard and Ran to form percentage on Timeform is impressive. In theory it puts him ahead of Bowen and Cobden and many more.

    But I hazard a guess that the average race Mr Maxwell races in is far less competitive than top jockeys. Therefore easier to move around and easier to run to form.

    Maxwell would not put me off backing his mounts, but I’d allow for him not being as good as Bowen and Cobden when assessing the price I’d take.

    As for running in the National, nothing against him riding.

    Value Is Everything
    #1690411
    Avatar photoTonge
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    • Total Posts 2778

    Steeplechasing- yes
    Marlingford- I had exactly the same concerns about Waley-Cohen.

    It isn’t about individuals. It’s the indisputable fact that a horse is more likely to die on the racecourse if it isn’t ridden by a professional jockey. That some amateurs are regarded as as good as professionals isn’t in dispute but that doesn’t mean that amateurs should be indulging their hobby by risking human and equine lives in the international showcase of British jump racing.

    #1690418
    Avatar photoEx RubyLight
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    • Total Posts 3851

    I understand what Tonge is saying and probably it would be easier to swallow, if he would have around 100-120 rides a season instead of the 37 he’s had so far and ideally with no longer breaks due to injury.

    Waley-Cohen might have had fewer rides than Maxwell in one season, but he was outstanding over the GN fences (just thinking of Liberthine) and also had a decent horse to ride with Long Run or prior to that with Katarino (another Aintree specialist). He also rode a lot more against the professionals during a season than DM does.

    #1690426
    Avatar photoHe Didnt Like Ground
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    • Total Posts 5780

    Maxwell is a very average rider , well done to him on his GN ride but he’s there because of money not talent

    #1690497
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 6126

    Well, that’s a personal opinion. The facts say different. The 100% objective stats say he is well above average.

    Had the same debate on twitter with, of all things, a lawyer, who despite the facts and charts I sent her, thought that she was right, and apparently still does. It’s Like Trump’s alternative facts with some people.

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