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This race typically has 6 runners.
With Genius and Roderic likely not to turn up this year, it looks like the max field will be 9, of which 4 are rank outsiders. So I reckon it’s effectively a 5 horse race at most this year.
It follows that 1/5 the odds first 3 places each way antepost is a good deal. Back all the top five is my recommendation.
fwiw, speed figs for Thursday:
48.6 World Domination
43.6+ Seville
38.6+ Carlton House
36.6+ / 38.6 Genius Beast
29.6+ / 38.9 YaseerEach pt worth approx 3lbs.
"+" indicates 2yo speed figure, 2yos can be expected to improve anything from 5-10 pts at 3.
Not original, but suggests only the top 3 can be considered, cannot have Genius Beast, Yaseer etc on my mind.
Some people suggest World Domination "only" won a maiden and what has he achieved? But given World Domination clocked a smart time for a debutante at Newbury (backed up by the 3rd and 8th clocking a fair time in a Salisbury maiden nto) and his trainer indicating he would come on a lot for that (as he did with Frankel), this is a serious horse based on deed, not just the word of Newmarket gallops watchers.
Carlton House rates around 5-6lbs behind Workforce at similar stages of their careers, and can expect healthy improvement from a Stoute contender, but got to consider Seville the main danger to the proven 3yo form of the Cecil horse if the latter makes just normal improvement from debut.
Heard a rumour that WD was keeping up with the mighty Frankel on the gallops earlier this year. Has anyone else heard this?
I be backing World Domination for this.
Dont Believe the hype bout Carlton House and I dont rate Seville so WB it is for me.
Heard a rumour that WD was keeping up with the mighty Frankel on the gallops earlier this year. Has anyone else heard this?
Was told by someone on here that Frankel beat him 1/2L.
Prior to Recital’s Derrinstown victory, this much anticipated renewal of the Dante would have seen the top three in the Derby market squaring off just a few weeks shy of Epsom.
In light of new evidence this upcoming Thursday, the complexion of the market will no doubt alter to some extent, and there will be even greater significance for those holding antepost vouchers for Epsom.
You may not fancy a particular colt for this contest, but have either taken a price for the Derby, or think that perhaps he may be more ideally suited to the deamnds of Epsom over an extra two furlongs.
Workforce lengthened to double figures for the Derby after being defeated by Cape Blanco in this race last year, whereas the Aidan O’Brien colt contracted in price. Workforce would progress to win well at Epsom. Cape Blanco did not even make the line-up.
A potential double-edged betting conundrum.
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World Domination would be a strong fancy for the race but for an interrupted preperation. There was plenty of hype surrounding the colt prior to his debut success, and he looked every inch the smart performer, beating a potentially decent stablemate with the minimum of fuss.
He is certain to improve for that initial experience, and one would expect him to step up considerably on that promising success.
He holds a ‘fitness’ egde over his two main market rivals, but I would expect Seville to pose a bigger threat than Carlton House.
Seville has done nothing wrong, thus far, and has arguably proved better than connections initially thought, starting at 12/1 on his debut behind the highly touted Dubai Prince.
That colt subsequently franked the form, a few weeks after Seville broke his maiden in good style. A fast finishing second in the Racing Post Trophy would be the last time we see him as a juvenile, and his trainer produced Cape Blanco to win this on seasonal bow last year.
Carlton House looked a abit special on his second start last year when beating future winner, Craven third and Dante rival, Yaseer, by 9L at Newbury.
He looks sure to be suited by this trip, but I doubt Sir Michael Stoute will have him as finely tuned for this contest as perhaps Ballydoyle will with their respective colt.
Yaseer should not be underestimated. He is another who is sure to improve for the step up in trip and there was nothing wrong with his Craven effort behind eventual Guineas third, Native Khan, but this beautiful individual has three potentially high class colts to contend with.
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Henry Cecil has been flying lately (three winners and six placed from previous nine runners), but his colt missed a serious piece of work due to a bruised foot recently and he will surely be pleased just to see him acquit himself well against some classy sorts on just his second start.
Aidan O’Brien had a fabulous Chester and saddled the first three home in the Derrinstown on Sunday. He will have Seville fit enough to win this contest as he continues to form a pecking order for the respective upcoming classics.
If World Domiantion is defeated, I will be very much interested to see how the bookmakers react. An uninterrupted preration, allied with the benefit of more experience, and we could see a much better colt in the Derby, particularly over a extra two furlongs. This apparently well balanced sort could also hold an advantage around the undulations of Epsom.
Don’t forget you can add your comments to the Fan pages of the leading contenders for the Dante, including Racing comments (preferences, etc) and Pedigrees plus comments
Seville – http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horses/seville
World Domination – http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horses/world-domination
Carlton House – http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horses/carlton-house
I notice Seville has much higher ratings (133 on topspeed and RPR) than the others so not surprising he is fav. The surprise is he’s not closer to evens than 2-1.
World Dom has only 109/115. Poor in comparison. Also WD’s rating is for a 3 year old whereas Seville earned his 133s as a 2 year old. I am not sure if Racing pos adjust for this. If they don’t then Seville is likely to be vastly superior to WD, unless the fact that WD has won over 11 furlongs rather than 8 counts in his favour.
Comparison with Carlton House (93/115) is harder as he hasn’t raced as a 3 year old either so is open to improvement, but on the face of it he also seems no match for Seville.
Whatever you fancy for this, it should pay to take a price now. Bookies can’t decide / are divided on the prices to such an extent, it is possible to back all the runners NOW and still make a profit!
I’ve already got 3/1
Seville
, his form is eons in front of the main "potential" horses and as it stands, entitles him to be a lot shorter. Though
Carlton House
and
World Domination
are undoubtedly capable of much better. Latter was cabbage-like in the prelims at Newbury before a tremendous performance on debut. Though it is asking a lot on his second ever start. Stoute’s Royal Runner shouted Derby in her maiden, but it was only a maiden.
Having said that I stil make it odds-on one of the two with "potential" win.
What is disconcerting as Seville is concerned is; Ladbrokes are joint top price, and Mike Dillon usually knows the inside info on who is and isn’t ready to run at Ballydoyle.
Yaseer
was well beaten behind Carlton House last term, but promised more when placed in the Craven. Should be suited by this trip despite being by Dansili, from the Nashwan, Nayef family. Treggoning seems to be in much better form this term too. Worth a saver @ 16/1.
My Prices to 100%:
Seville 7/4
, World Domination 11/4, Carlton House 11/4,
Yaseer 11/1
, Pisco Sour 66/1, Ashva 400/1.
Value Is EverythingI have no idea what will win 2moro after Arizona Jewel flop in the Musidora and has tempered my heart for World Domination.
Big shake up in the market 2moro….cant wait
If Seville begins to struggle at any stage, i’ll be hitting the Recital button again
Hopefully, World Domination’s interrupted preperation will not hinder his chances of winning. I’m sure Henry Cecil would not be running him if there were any concerns on that front.
I was most taken with his Newbury run and hopefully he will continue to progress.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
CARLTON HOUSE
On at 25/1 though backed WD at 20s as well but i think Carlton House can win today and be the new fav for derby.
Seville
, his form is eons in front of the main "potential" horses and as it stands, entitles him to be a lot shorter.
Yaseer
Worth a saver @ 16/1.
My Prices to 100%:
Seville 7/4
, World Domination 11/4, Carlton House 11/4,
Yaseer 11/1
, Pisco Sour 66/1, Ashva 400/1.
Both Seville and Yaseer shortened up.
Now all one of them needs to do is win.
Value Is Everything
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