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After reading your post Ginge I deceided to have a look at her last race.
First off Richard Hughes is surely due a hard boot in the goolies for getting beat? She was absolutely hacking in behind them and if he had gone a little bit sooner she would have without a doubt won.
The one worry is the form of the race doesn’t look up to much as the winner and 4th have both been beaten since.
However she herself looks a useful horse and this race doesn’t look the hottest of contests. With a better ride she surely won’t be far away
TDK the man you can trust!
I’m breaking my golden rule and having a few quid on as well.- Total Posts 17716
Think it is a good mark myself.
Crimson Fern has an exceptional cruising speed, been looking out for when he races on a sharp track on a firm surface. Paddy Power’s 11/4 is worth taking (imo). Hope she is not too far back but she can make the running if needed.
Mark
The track would worry me more than the opposition.
Though she showed an impressive turn of foot lto, Bath has an uphill finish, and she took time to get into overdrive once she got a clear run. Apart from all her wins above class 5 having come on stiff tracks, Lingfield”s sharp 5 didn’t suit her too well on her seasonal debut either, and though she has a favourite’s chance, it isn’t hard to visualise her effort coming all too late again today.Agreed – I’m not sure Goodwood is ideal for Crimson Fern either, wlthough she remains a leading contender. The value in the race could be chancing either Osiris Way or Safari Mischief on their seasonal reappearance – they have both run well fresh in the past and both go particularly well at this venue.
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I’d go along with Safari Mischief, TDK.
Goes well fresh, close 2nd in this race last year, and subsequently ran well in some much better races than this.
Win & place at 9/1 seems a much better option than backing the favourite, though the Channon horse could be anything.I’m on Safari Mischief. One other factor about the Look Busy race is that Berry’s filly has never been at her best on her reappearance, doubt she was this year either.
Anyone else surprised this mare has been
dropped
a pound to 93 for finishing a possibly slightly unlucky second to Look Busy (rated 103). Siren’s Gift was third (rated 94). The trio raced at level weights. The quality of the horses behind doesn’t seem to offer any obvious clue either.
Timeform commented after the run –
this won’t have done her handicap mark any good
. Clearly it has!
Could be on 85 after that performance..
Pulled far too hard and got no cover whatsoever – larger field and cover will suit her. She’s definitely able to win off a similar mark. Hughes not overly keen on riding out for a place didn’t help her finishing position either.
Hughes not overly keen on riding out for a place didn’t help her finishing position either.
You should be working for the UN with those diplomatic skills of yours Irish Stamp.
id have like to see him ride out to the line, she might have dropped another pound. riding a finish like that the handicapper will just leave her on 93 imo.
Some bizarre ratings knocking around at the minute. Anyone care to tell me how Jafaru gets in at Brighton on Thursday off 50? His last turf handicap run came off 65 and his last handicap run off 60. Okay he ran poorly on 2 subsequent tuef runs, including in a seller, but were those shockers because all of a sudden he doesn’t act on turf?
Judged by the late money for this Gal must have filled his boots.
Saw Crimson Fern in the paddock at Goodwood. When walking away from me (rear end) her back hooves almost touched with every stride, on a collision course until the last moment before doing a semi-circle around the other one.
Any paddock watcher out there that can tell me:
Is this a sign the horse could get unbalanced on an undulating track?
Am thinking if she is a poor mover in her faster paces as well.
Mark
Value Is EverythingInteresting…
It was suggested on here that Goodwood might not be ideal for her prior to the race and I noted her trainer expressed similar reservations in the RP quotes prior to the race.
She will still be of real interest on a more conventional track, especially if her recent defeat is taken at face value by the market. She is definitely best when held up with cover…
Interesting…
It was suggested on here that Goodwood might not be ideal for her prior to the race and I noted her trainer expressed similar reservations in the RP quotes prior to the race.
She will still be of real interest on a more conventional track, especially if her recent defeat is taken at face value by the market. She is definitely best when held up with cover…
Crimson Fern ran one of her best races leading throughout until caught on the line by Hoh Hoh Hoh at Sandown last August off 94. I backed her at Bath but was not expecting her to do as well on a downhill track. Best not to be too dogmatic about run style though. She ran too freely to halfway at Goodwood, for whatever reason?
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Any sharp track will find her out, however ridden, and her trainer and jockey knowing this, had little option but to ride her prominently to give her any chance at all. The trainer made it clear that there was a lack of other opportunities for, and she wasn’t persevered with when others were finishing better.
The steady pace also didn’t help, and the RP analyst’s contention that they went off too quickly is plainly absurd. I don’t doubt she’ll be back, but not until she runs somewhere far more demanding than Goodwood.Some bizarre ratings knocking around at the minute. Anyone care to tell me how Jafaru gets in at Brighton on Thursday off 50? His last turf handicap run came off 65 and his last handicap run off 60. Okay he ran poorly on 2 subsequent tuef runs, including in a seller, but were those shockers because all of a sudden he doesn’t act on turf?
Good shout DJ.
I’m breaking my golden rule and having a few quid on as well.
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