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I’ve managed to jinx another one as Declarationofpeace isn’t declared
Hmm, I don’t know about your ‘jinx’ record Judge but I was quite surprised at this news. I feel for the likes of Steve who caught good early prices on the colt for this.
I did say in my earlier post however, that I was more impressed with Murillo than Declarationofpeace and so perhaps O’Brien has been thinking the same. I was tempted to take the 10/1 on offer about the former but with the assumption that ‘the lads’ wouldn’t run both and with the latter the shorter priced in the ante-post market I held fire. To be fair 8/1 is still available and I can only see that price shortening so wouldn’t put anyone off getting on now if they fancy him.
Not convinced about Murillo.
I’m fairly certain that Brother Bear is the one to beat out of the Irish/British contingent but the great unknown as always is the wesley ward runners.
Watching this video https://youtu.be/1VzpwCWGk08
You see Arawak working with McErin. Walking around before hand McErin looks the typical Ward protoype heavyweight boxer horse, just looks like an absolute monster, (I think there’s something dodgy going on with that stable in terms of the home runners aren’t on a level playing field, but I guess that’s a different story) but in the gallop it seems that Arawak gets the better of him
Given we already know he likes the course he seems a fairly solid play, I would say the one concern is a possible lack of stamina, Ward has an outstanding record in the pure speed two year olds the queen mary and the norfolk, but has yet to make his mark in the stiffer test of the Coventry
I’ve managed to jinx another one as Declarationofpeace isn’t declared
Hmm, I don’t know about your ‘jinx’ record Judge but I was quite surprised at this news. I feel for the likes of Steve who caught good early prices on the colt for this.
I did say in my earlier post however, that I was more impressed with Murillo than Declarationofpeace and so perhaps O’Brien has been thinking the same. I was tempted to take the 10/1 on offer about the former but with the assumption that ‘the lads’ wouldn’t run both and with the latter the shorter priced in the ante-post market I held fire. To be fair 8/1 is still available and I can only see that price shortening so wouldn’t put anyone off getting on now if they fancy him.I never backed him Charles. I think it was The Ante Post King who put the colt up here.
I fancied Denaar long ago, there was just something about his style on debut and the fact that he reminded me of Mehmas. I tried to get a price for the Coventry at the same time I backed him for his second start but nobody was quoting him at all. After he won he was introduced into the Coventry betting at 20/1 so I backed him at those odds. I also advised over on the 2YO thread that I thought he was worthy of a dabble at 20/1. I think that he was cut to 10/1 the following day. He sits at 7/1 now and I am far from confident, not least because stablemate De Bruyne Horse is going places and still looked a bit raw when I backed him for the Woodcote but he got the job done and Cardsharp boosted the form when dropped back to 5F.
It annoys me that there was a move for Declarationofpeace earlier in the week, making it look like he was likely to turn up and then, bang, he’s out of the race.
At 4/1 Brother Bear is way short for me. I did think about him after I backed him last time but it’s not really a race where I want to fire more than 1 dart. You could do 3 and not even get a place from the trio.
Murillo made a huge step forward from 1st to 2nd run in the style of his win but I don’t think the 5F maiden he won amounts to anything really. Back at 6F and facing this company means he’s an easy lay for me and he’s rated 11 lbs behind Brother Bear on RPR into the bargain.
Rogue and Kit Marlowe have not done a lot for Denaar’s form but the Hannon colt won cosily despite being weak in the betting and not looking that he liked the soft ground. The Ascot going is described as Good To Firm, good in places at the moment, so Denaar should be better served by that.
Arawak is the unknown quantity and he’s not really a typical Wesley Ward in respect that he didn’t trap like a greyhound. The conditions were sloppy looking and described as slow. Arawak took time to get to the lead and then powered away steadily up the straight. Typically huge in size, he has a funny tail carriage with it sticking almost straight from his rear end. I just find it impossible to assess the form of a 4 runner maiden run on slurry, where the Fav was 2/5 and they came home like bumper runners. As short as 9/2 and as big as 9/1 with Ladbrokes, who seem keen to take him on. He’s not a runner I can back here.
Rajasinghe could be anything but I reckon he needs to come forward a good bit in this company. He’s not crying value to me at a general 10/1, particularly when you can back De Bruyne Horse at 15/2.
I feel Hannon has a big say here and I may yet twist my arm and have a bet on De Bruyne horse as well.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ah sorry mate, I had it in my faulty memory bank that you did – but anyways I’m sure many people like TAPK have been getting on the colt at the prices and this is probably a hard one to swallow.
Isn’t Arawak also owned by Coolmore? Maybe Wesley has had a little chat with Aiden…
Looking at the Ward runners a bit more closely just now, I was watching their keeneland work outs and they didn’t look that impressive.
I might it be me being stupid but now I am thinking along the lines of perhaps he doesn’t have anything special, and that the value is in taking his runners on this year.
I tend to think with the Ward runners is he either has something that is super special and gets heavily backed in the market (like acapulco or no nay never) and they win doing handsprings, but if the confidence isn’t there they tend to be pretty ordinary. It’s entirely possible he has nothing exceptional this year.
Another one I think is a big price for the windsor castle is this dragons tail- really lovely looking horse and currently trading at 20-1, which looks rather big to me
Not sure what to think after today’s bombshell. On the one hand, I feel vindicated with Declarationofpeace‘s sidestep into the Windsor Castle effectively confirming that he is nothing special. But does this mean Arawak and/or Murillo are special?
Also hard to know how to play it with my bets. Murillo isn’t going to hit a backable price with Ryan Moore booked. I was going to take 10.0+ on De Bruyne Horse with Declarationofpeace in the field so do I take 8.6 now? On the other hand, there’s a good chance nobody will latch onto Sean Levey’s mount and I’ll get much bigger on the day. I guess I’ll end up taking the pennies at the current price and top up later if that becomes an option.
Not sure what to think after today’s bombshell. On the one hand, I feel vindicated with Declarationofpeace‘s sidestep into the Windsor Castle effectively confirming that he is nothing special. But does this mean Arawak and/or Murillo are special?
Also hard to know how to play it with my bets. Murillo isn’t going to hit a backable price with Ryan Moore booked. I was going to take 10.0+ on De Bruyne Horse with Declarationofpeace in the field so do I take 8.6 now? On the other hand, there’s a good chance nobody will latch onto Sean Levey’s mount and I’ll get much bigger on the day. I guess I’ll end up taking the pennies at the current price and top up later if that becomes an option.
I went in and took the 10/1 on Murillo with Corals at about 2:15 and they’ve since cut him into 15/2 but Betfair are still offering 9/1. I’m curious as to what you determine to be a ‘backable price’ for the horse?
Fair point Charles. Well done on carving us up for that 10/1 too!
To be honest, I was under the impression Murillo had become an all-rates smash. Actually took it for granted that he’d gone second fav with Moore jocked up.
I’ll definitely take some of that 10.0 on the exchange and probably wait for the day with De Bruyne Horse.
Firstly, some cracking write ups on this thread. Not least from Lost Soldier.
It’s a race I had assumed would be a play on the day race (or near enough) for me so didn’t do anything antepost but I have a nagging feeling I’m going to get burnt by De Bruyne Horse. I went against him on Oaks day but thought he would be a good powerful horse in the future. Now I happen to be going to the Ascot Tuesday and he will reappear. I have that thought in my mind he will run a big one. I was on Buratino in the Woodcote and then Coventry and had Caravaggio last year as my NAP of the meeting so it’s probably my best race.
However, I really have no idea this time around.
I fancy taking the favourite on and also the Wesley Ward horse. I’m thinking DBH as he will win if I oppose him again and I’d feel foolish. But I also thing that Awabah could run a good race.
I backed him when he got beat by Brother Bear in Ireland but he didn’t run his race in my opinion. It was possibly the ground that was the issue and at 20/1, he could be value each way for a small bet.
I probably won’t back anything else though I have a feeling that Denaar will go well. Might play him but not as it stands.
This isn’t a year to get massively involved in something in my view.
De Bruyne Horse – 15/2
Aqabah – 20/1 each way
Now I happen to be going to the Ascot Tuesday
I always go on the Tuesday (Wednesday as well more recently); it’s the best day. It’s not quite as crowded as the later days and it serves up the best racing with 3 Group 1’s and the weeks premier 2 year old race. I always recommend it if I know anyone thinking about the Royal meeting.
Fair shout on Aqabah. I saw him win on debut and he looked a class act; those in behind him that day have really boosted the form and I agree the ground was probably his undoing in Ireland.
Decided to have a second bullet at the race with De Bruyne Horse at 15/2.
I am not sure how strong the Marble Hill, at its new distance of 6F, actually was.
The more I look at this race, the more I think I would make De Bruyne Horse my narrow favourite here, as I feel he is just about the soundest looking horse from a form perspective.
Brother Bear is a fine big colt but his last run was in foul and quite testing conditions. He looked a horse ready for stepping up to 7F and he may find the going a bit lively this week. Jessica Harrington is not exactly in great form either. 3/39 the last fortnight and 0/20 the last six days. Her current strike rate is 7.5%
With a favourite this short in a trappy race, he’s not for me.
Watching Arawak’s race I noticed that he trousered $63,000 for winning a 4 runner maiden. William Haggas is missing his vocation in life chucking £3000 in the trough for his maiden winners
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Gone for Romanised E/W @ 16’s
Won one of the best maidens in Ireland this year quite cosily over 5F staying on well to lead on the line. In 3rd that day was Declarationofpeace who is favourite for the Windsor Castle and was also quite well fancied for this before switching.
Was added to the entries for the G1 Phoenix Stakes along with a few others whose form ties in to that maiden race as well.
Gone for Arawak at 8/1 and Nebo at 14/1 in this. Arawak could be another WW job!! Nebo won nicely first time out and I think the second third fourth and fifth have all won since!!
The profile of U S Navy Flag tells me there could me more to come on this quick ground tomorrow. Still a maiden from three runs but this kind of test looks like it could be more to his liking. 50/1 looks big.
Surely unless you have some sort of angle or inside info these two year old contests are a sort of guessing game.
I remember a few years ago Nick Mordin had a system on the Coventry. it was something about how unless the winner had achieved a RPR of 90 on it’s first or second run it had almost no chance. This year the qualifiers would be De Bruyne horse, Murillo, Arawak, Brother Bear and Denaar
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