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I was firmly in the Strong Suit half until I saw the RPR given to Samuel Morse for his Marble Hill win – 100. That’s an astonishing rating for a 2yo this early in the season after only 2 runs.
Red Clubs, 101, 3 runs – 1st, 2005
BA Foxtrot, 102, 4 runs – 13th, 2005
Hellvelyn, 100, 2 runs – 1st, 2006
Pencil Hill, 105, 2 runs – 4th, 2007
Declaration of War, 100, 2 runs – 8th, 2007
Icesolator, 101, 4 runs – 13th, 2008And if you can forgive a couple of points, Art Connoisseur was rated 99 before demolishing the field in 2008 while Canford Cliffs was rated 97 for his victory last year. Ironically the lowest rated winner beforehand since 2004 was Henrythenavigator on 95. Toss up between the first 2 in the market.
- Total Posts 17716
I was firmly in the Strong Suit half until I saw the RPR given to Samuel Morse for his Marble Hill win – 100. That’s an astonishing rating for a 2yo this early in the season after only 2 runs.
Red Clubs, 101, 3 runs – 1st, 2005
BA Foxtrot, 102, 4 runs – 13th, 2005
Hellvelyn, 100, 2 runs – 1st, 2006
Pencil Hill, 105, 2 runs – 4th, 2007
Declaration of War, 100, 2 runs – 8th, 2007
Icesolator, 101, 4 runs – 13th, 2008And if you can forgive a couple of points, Art Connoisseur was rated 99 before demolishing the field in 2008 while Canford Cliffs was rated 97 for his victory last year. Ironically the lowest rated winner beforehand since 2004 was Henrythenavigator on 95. Toss up between the first 2 in the market.
Good work!
The tricky thing is you can’t rate potential it’s just a part of nature, they’re maybe a horse out there who could be ready to run up to a 100 RPR as you’ve pointed but none of us will know who that’s going to be on the day which is why it could be safer to opt for a horse such as the ones you’ve mentioned but I think it’s much harder for a horse whos recorded a 100 RPR already to have the mentality and toughness to go out and repeat his effort given the change in conditions.
Anyone got a complete list of those running, RP seems to have lost their card for the Coventry?
Strong Suit Feb-09 1/ 96 May-14 Hannon
Zoffany Mar-18 11/ 95 Apr May-12 AOB
Elzaam Jan-24 1/ 92 May-13 Jarvis
Retainer Apr-15 1/ 95 Apr Hannon
Head Space 1/ 90 Apr Bolger
Samuel Morse Feb-06 11/ 100 Apr AOB
Temple Meads Apr-07 1/ 89 May-02 McMahon
Zebedee Feb-24 11/ 92 Apr Apr-28 Hannon
Excel Bolt Mar-05 1/ 83 May-18 Smart
Bahceli Mar-12 11/ 87 Apr May-12 Hannon
Cape To Rio Mar-06 11/ 93 Apr May-17 Hannon
Klammer Feb-23 11/ 93 Apr May-15 J Chapple-Hyam
Dinkum Diamond Feb-24 1/ 84 May-13 Candy
Zaidan Mar-08 1/ 87 May-01 Brittain
Mr Mojito Apr-19 1/ 85 Apr Stack
My Son Max Mar-27 12/ 92 Apr May-15 Hannon
Sir Reginald Apr-17 2/ 88 May-13 FaheyThat was how it stood a couple of weeks ago. I just used the list from Coral’s market.
Will the Americans be just as dominating in the juvenile 6 furlongs as well as 5 furlong races?
I’ve nicked this link from elsewhere. The Man Uptown.
Oh well, that was a wasted effort – the American horse isn’t among the 5 day deccies.
I was firmly in the Strong Suit half until I saw the RPR given to Samuel Morse for his Marble Hill win – 100. That’s an astonishing rating for a 2yo this early in the season after only 2 runs.
But it’s only someone else’s opinion and who is to say he’s right? The runner-up did nothing for the form the other day although High Award did frank it on Saturday.
Gus, totally agree with your premise and I agree that RPRs have been wrong on several occasions, but in terms of trends, they’ve been on the ball on far too many occasions.
I’ve gotten 50/1 about Samuel Morse winning the Coventry and the 2000 Guineas with Bet365. Was worth a tenner anyway. I expect him to win the Coventry and be about 8/1 for the Guineas. I remember Henrythenavigator being about 5/1 after he won it
I’ve also taken a big price about Irish Field. French-trained and demolished a 6f race last time out easily. Not seen it and hasn’t been given an RPR but getting a big fed up of big-priced French horses winning our good races…
Elzaam will win this. Looked a class animal at york. Clive brittains looks a decent ew and irish field looks a good guineas type 4 next year, but think elzaam looks to have 2 much class 4 this field at this stage…
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I think Elzaam very much had things his own way at York – nothing was going to let itself down sufficiently to quicken past him on that ground – and Rerouted, despite winning since (the second and fourth from that race were beaten at very short prices yesterday), has done the form no favours.
He’ll have to step up markedly on that performance to win the Coventry in my opinion.
So, Murtagh has passed over Samuel Morse in favour of Zoffany. Any reason JP O’Brien rides Beethoven and Ryan Moore rides Samuel Morse? If I was Colm O’Donoghue or Seamie Heffernan I’d be wondering what I’d done wrong!
I"m of the opinion that Strong suit wont have the gears for a race like this,i also believe Samual Morse will be a much better 3yo who will find this too much too soon!Elzaam is a horse i like a lot,he looks like a Derby type already.My selection is
Zoffany
,this fellow looks to me like a horse who will probably show signs of greeness throughout the race and will pull a bit but when Johnny says go, whoosh! 5/1 is the best i could get!
- Total Posts 17716
THE COVENTRY
Speed Ratings
– 92.68 Canford Cliffs (2009) (3.06/Good to Firm)
– 91.65 Art Connoisseur (2008) (5.38/Hard)
– 95.08 Henrythenavigator (2007) (5.38/Hard)
– 90.94 Hellvelyn (2006) (2.86/Good to Firm)
– 90.14 Iceman (2004) (3.17/Firm)
– 92.91 Three Valleys (2003) (2.90/Good to Firm)
– 88.68 Statue Of Liberty (2002) (1.49/Good)
– 87.70 Landseer (2001) (1.26/Good)
– 85.03 Cd Europe (2000) (1.23/Good)
– 85.70 Fasliyev (1999) (2.63/Firm)
(Average: 90.05) (Median: 90.54) (Average: 90.30)Sectional
– 38.339 Canford Cliffs (2009) (3.06/Good to Firm)
– 35.890 Art Connoisseur (2008) (5.38/Hard)
– 36.651 Henrythenavigator (2007) (5.38/Hard)
– 38.228 Hellvelyn (2006) (2.86/Good to Firm)
– 38.663 Iceman (2004) (3.17/Firm)
– 37.223 Three Valleys (2003) (2.90/Good to Firm)
– 38.632 Statue Of Liberty (2002) (1.49/Good)
– 36.707 Landseer (2001) (1.26/Good)
– 38.899 Cd Europe (2000) (1.23/Good)
(Average: 37.692) (Median: 38.228) (Average: 37.960)Ascot 6f Record – Henrythenavigator
Time: 1m 12s
Standard: 49.530 %Contenders Speed Ratings
94.32 Samuel Morse (Curragh 5f) (GF)
90.32 High Award (Curragh 5f) (GF)
87.83 Strong Suit (Newbury 6f) (GF)
87.37 High Award (Epsom 6f) (H)
82.90 Galtymore Lad (Beverley 5f) (GF)
82.31 Elzaam (York 6f) (H)
82.30 Galtymore Lad (Pontefract 6f) (H)
81.61 Chiswick Bey (Beverley 5f) (F)
80.57 Klammer (Newmarket 6f) (GF)
79.93 Amwell Pinot (Chester 6f) (GF)
78.51 Chiswick Bey (Doncaster 5f) (GF)
77.56 Klammer (Newbury 5f) (GF)
76.91 Samuel Morse (Curragh 5f) (HVY)
76.81 Roayh (Leicester 6f) (GF)
76.73 Planet Waves (Nottingham 6f) (GF)
76.62 Sheer Courage (Leicester 5f) (F)
70.82 Move In Time (Newcastle 6f) (G)
68.99 Mullins Way (Bath 6f) (H)
66.84 Zoffany (Naas 6f) (H)
61.19 Zoffany (Leopardstown 6f) (H)Contenders Sectional
32.506 Zoffany (Naas 6f) (H)
33.554 High Award (Epsom 6f) (H)
34.856 Samuel Morse (Curragh 5f) (GF)
35.000 Strong Suit (Newbury 6f) (GF)
35.065 Klammer (Newbury 5f) (GF)
35.131 Zoffany (Leopardstown 6f) (H)
35.990 High Award (Curragh 5f) (GF)
36.003 Klammer (Newmarket 6f) (GF)
36.208 Sheer Courage (Leicester 6f) (F)
36.275 Planet Waves (Nottingham 6f) (GF)
36.417 Galtymore Lad (Pontefract 6f) (H)
36.486 Amwell Pinot (Chester 6f) (GF)
37.109 Galtymore Lad (Beverley 5f) (GF)
37.234 Roayh (Leicester 6f) (GF)
37.311 Chiswick Bey (Beverley 5f) (F)
37.467 Samuel Morse (Curragh 5f) (HVY)
38.079 Move In Time (Newcastle 6f) (G)
38.088 Mullins Way (Bath 6f) (H)
39.257 Elzaam (York 6f) (H)
40.633 Chiswick Bey (Doncaster 5f) (GF)FINAL PROFILES
AMWEL PINOT
22/05/10 – Chester 6f
Standard: 46.310%
Achieved: 47.750%
Speed Rating: 79.93Alan Berry’s Dubawi colt would have to step up a lot on his run at Chester to feature in the placing although the owners have secured the services of Frankie Dettori and expect a good run.
CHISWICK BEY
29/05/10 – Beverley 5f
Standard: 58.426
Achieved: 59.966
Speed Rating: 81.6127/03/10 – Doncaster 5f
Standard: 59.779
Achieved: 63.143
Speed Rating: 78.51Richard Fahey landed the Brocklesby with Chiswick Bey but in truth it was a very poor renewal and the form hasn’t worked out either, he failed to inspire at Beverley with minimal improvement and would be up against it here.
ELZAAM
13/05/10 York 6f
Standard: 49.491
Achieved: 54.958
Speed Rating: 82.31
This Australian bred colt by Redoute’s Choice certainly made a decent impression where he was allowed the freedom out in front and looked extremely comfortable with a lovely action but I can’t have him on the figures he’s produced, the form has worked out really well and he may well improve enough to run into a place or potentially win but then again that’s just guess work.GALTYMORE LAD
28/05/10 – Pontefract 6f
Standard: 49.521
Achieved: 48.950
Speed Rating: 82.3011/05/10 – Beverley 5f
Standard: 58.426
Achieved: 59.670
Speed Rating: 82.90
Mic Channon’s runaway winner of a conditions event at Pontefract has earned his right to take part in the Coventry, he put daylight between his rivals in a stiff finish and comes from a very speedy pedigree but I have reservations on a real slick surface with a strong end to end gallop and he just don’t catch my imagination on figures.HIGH AWARD
5/06/10 – Epsom 6f
Standard: 50.421
Achieved: 48.467
Speed Rating: 87.37
Tommy Stacks High Award handled the track well at Epsom and was always towards the fore, he produced a very decent sectional ensuring this renewal of the Woodcote could be a little bit above average. With the entry of Samuel Morse I’m going to find it extremely difficult to overturn the form and there will be another day for him.KLAMMER
15/05/10 – Newmarket 6f
Standard: 48.550
Achieved: 49.575
Speed Rating: 80.5716/04/10 – Newbury 5f
Standard: 56.665
Achieved: 56.592
Speed Rating: 77.56
Klammer had to work hard for his win at Newmarket but he showed a very game attitude but I really doubt his turn of foot to win a Coventry on what he’s showing, there is plenty of stamina in the pedigree which may be indicating these slow sectionals and has it all to find.MOVE IN TIME
28/05/10 – Newcastle 6f
Standard: 48.571
Achieved: 49.446
Speed Rating: 70.82
Bryan Smart knows if he has a good enough sprinter on his hands but his entry in the Coventry for Move In Time seems a little bit optimistic to say the very least, he franked the form of Elzaam winning by 2 and half lengths at Newcastle but I am really struggling to see a Coventry winner here.PLANET WAVES
18/05/10 – Nottingham 6f
Standard: 49.430
Achieved: 48.612
Speed Rating: 76.73
This soon of Red Ransom is really well bred being a half brother to Termagant and Splinter Cell who’ve both shown decent speed ratings with their time on the track and Planet Waves stepped up from his debut run with a comfortable success at Nottingham but he had the rail advantage were those out wider on the course were disadvantaged, although this wasn’t particularly a spectacular final time he’s shown to dip under the sectional average at Nottingham over 6f set by a very decent sprinter and could be a very interesting runner.ROAYH
1/06/10 – Leicester 6f
Standard: 52.141
Achieved: 50.637
Speed Rating: 76.81
There is something about Roayh I really like, he’s a nice sized colt and really well balanced and wasn’t given a hard ride at Nottingham behind Planet Waves on debut despite being stuck wide on the track all the way were it was a disadvantage. He’s come out of that race and put to bed a decent Class 4 Maiden at Leicester with 2 stable mates left reeling in his wake in 2nd and 3rd, he was a comfortable winner travelling well throughout and push out hands n heels, he has also dipped quite comfortably under the standard which is nice to know he has a decent turn of foot as he travels so well and looks a big challenger although I’d have liked to see a better Speed Rating.SAMUEL MORSE
22/05/10 – Curragh 5f
Standard: 58.872
Achieved: 58.326
Speed Rating: 94.3211/04/10 – Curragh 5f
Standard: 58.872
Achieved: 55.009
Speed Rating: 76.91
Aidan O’Brien’s Samuel Morse looks the complete package for me here, he showed a ravishing turn of foot at The Curragh on debut in bottomless ground where he easily dipped under standard making him a horse to keep on the right side off and the eventual 3rd Radharcnafarraige is now a Group 3 winner. The Marble Hill was just as impressive, trapped behind a wall of horses there wasn’t much race left to get his head in front but he duly obliged finding a gap down the rail winning by the shortest of margins, the bad run clearly effected his ability to dip under standard again so that’s not a worry but what’s more impressive is he recorded a Speed Rating of 94+ which is nearly unheard of in May and its boarding classic potential although it remains to be seen whether he trains on at 3 but what we do know he’s going to be some talent at 2.SHEER COURAGE
24/05/10 – Leicester 6f
Standard: 52.141
Achieved: 50.001
Speed Rating: 76.62
Good enough for Richard Hannon to drop him into a Class 2 Maiden at Newmarket first time out in which he ran a respectable race but he come out of that with a complete romp at Leicester winning by 10 lengths under Ryan Moore, he’s now with South African trainer Herman Brown which probably seals his fate with a career in England and the Coventry will be his last hoorah, he’s going to be in with a decent each way shout.STRONG SUIT
14/05/10 – Newbury 6f
Standard: 49.642
Achieved: 48.123
Speed Rating: 87.53
There was a lot of pressure on Strong Suit who wouldn’t have realised he had something of a reputation to live up too with stable mate Canford Cliffs winning the same race last year and reports going around on the day that this was Hannon’s best 2 year old yet he must of been given some advice by Canford Cliffs as he’s put up a mirror image of his compatriots success last year on Speed Ratings and the Sectional bar the winning distance although the 3rd horse was beaten by 7.25 lengths. This could potentially be an extremely useful colt who deserves his place towards the fore of the market and looks a very likely winner.ZOFFANY
12/05/10 – Naas 6f
Standard: 48.528
Achieved: 43.915
Speed Rating: 66.8418/04/10 – Leopardstown 6f
Standard: 48.069
Achieved: 44.156
Speed Rating: 66.19
Last but not least Zoffany who has been picked by Murtagh in his choice over Samuel Morse which we probably shouldn’t look too much into but you can see why Murtagh has chosen Zoffany; his sectionals have been absolutely blistering and admittedly the races were slowly run but in a sprint you need this acceleration and arguably Zoffany is the quickest horse in the race but he needs to prove he can conserve his energy at a strong gallop were to date he’s mentality and physically had an easy ride which won’t be the case at Ascot on Tuesday, serious contender.Bets
Samuel Morse – £86 win @ 5.5
Roayh – £13.02 win @ 34
Strong Suit/Zoffany – £10 Reverse ForecastAs much as I like the look of the O’Brien pair, Elzaam looks the one in this. The form of his win has worked out really well, and seemingly he’s well fancied by the yard. Richard Hills said that his best chances of the week were Elzaam and the filly in the Queen Mary, even ahead of Mawatheeq.
I was most taken by Strong Suit’s win at Newbury.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
im a big fan of elzaam and klammer in this if gd-fm but if the ground is good then the advantage will fall 2 samuel morse galtimore lad and move in time imo.
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