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Well done, CAS, the rich get richer.
I only had 11/4 ante-post – it’ll just about pay for the open-heart surgery I’ll be needing after watching the closing stages.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Well done Nathan and CAS.
Winner looks to have excellent conformation and good stride.
Will probably progress to be quite a bit better than the other Coventry runners.Value Is EverythingOh, and well done, Nathan too – Democracy losses recouped with interest.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"River Tiber was getting warm beforehand too so can be marked up a bit
Blackbeard to conquer the World
tbh getting warm beforehand is something that has different effects on different horses.
Can even be a positive so I would not mark the performance up – at least not yet.If I did not know the horse and saw it getting warm it would only be a slight concern.
If I knew the horse is usually relaxed beforehand, then it would be more of a worry.
If I knew the horse usually gets warm beforehand, then seeing it do so again would be a positive rather than a negative.One thing I would say about horses that sweat profusely is they often don’t stay as far as pedigree suggests they should.
That said, a horse having only his third run – like River Tiber – getting warm could still be greenness. Especially with two rivals playing up in the stalls prior to the off. Enough to concern most two year olds this early in their career. I’d say that’s most likely at this stage.
Anyone seen River Tiber in the paddock before?
Value Is EverythingThanks all. Given how close it got, I am glad I laid him back. At least I avoided ID’s near coronary!
I thought I might have made the right decision about a furlong out but he showed a very willing attitude. He could be the type of horse who keeps on winning without looking spectacular.
Percentage wise a horse getting warm/sweating up is a negative, ginger
Rare it being a positive so I’m marking him up until otherwise known..😘Blackbeard to conquer the World
If they’ve run well when sweating before then why would it be a negative?
If judging a horse against all horses, then yes it would be a negative. But race distance and breeding mean I am not judging River Tiber against all horses. eg It would be wrong to include stayers when judging a miler racing at sprint distances.
As I said – depends on the horse – but sweating up over sprint distances in particular is often a good thing.
When Battaash sweated up it was a positive..
When Battaash did not sweat up it was – for me – a big negative.The more stamina is needed in a race the more relaxed I’d want a horse to be.
The more stamina a horse appears to have in its pedigree (compared to the race) the less I’d want it to be relaxed.River Tiber sweating up could’ve been a negative towards the rating he was able to achieve today.
May have made no difference.
May have been a positive, especially when racing at this 6f distance, when I don’t want a horse with mile breeding to be too relaxed (albeit this is a stiff 6 at this time of year for a two year old).It’s just imo too soon to be marking a two year old up just because it sweated up.
However, although I can’t say he’d have done any better in Today’s race…
From what I saw on TV, would certainly mark River Tiber’s potential up on both his conformation and stride. Both of which suggest to me he’s likely to make abnormal progress for a while yet.
Therefore, if he meets any Coventry rival again I’d expect him to beat them further than he did today. Possibly a good deal further. Value Is Everything“sweating up over sprint distances in particular is often a good thing.”
I didn’t know that
what do you mean by often? 6/10, 7/10 more.??Blackbeard to conquer the World
“If they’ve run well when sweating before then why would it be a negative?”
Because they can run better perhaps when not sweating up beforehand…
Blackbeard to conquer the World
It is possible a horse will run better when not sweating, but it will depend on the horse and personallyI don’t know enough about River Tiber yet to make that assessment.
However – as I said earlier – for me the most likely reason for sweating up is two Coventry rivals getting upset beforehand. Quite usual for an inexperienced two year olds to worry a little (sweat) when seeing / hearing rivals behaving badly. That applies to rivals too.
When – as is hoped – River Tiber goes up in distance to a mile, then (if – and only if – he’s continued to sweat up before his subsequent races) I’d make it a negative for whether he’d get as far as his pedigree suggests. By that am not saying he would not stay, just he’d be less likely to stay than if he were relaxed.
Value Is EverythingAlthough more sprinters than other types sweat up it still depends on the individual horse.
If I did not know if the horse sweats up or not, I can’t give an out of 10 figure because it still depends on other things: eg How much sweat and how the horse is otherwise behaving in the paddock.
ie If absolutely awash with sweat then – unless it’s run to its rating while doing similar before – it would still be a negative even in a sprinter. Especially if also “playing up” in the paddock (eg pushing the lad / lass into the rail or getting otherwise upset (eg whipping around or rearing up).
If just a “kidney sweat” (between the back legs) or a minor sweat – where the horse is just as likely to calm down – and / or if its actions in the paddock isn’t too bad (eg if no worse than being on toes) then it would not be a worry.These things would be of greater concern the more stamina is needed.
Like I said, I would not want a horse with a miler’s pedigree to be too relaxed in the paddock when racing at 6f. However, the opposite is true about horses running over longer distances. ie One that is half asleep / lethargic in the paddock is likely to stay further than its pedigree suggests. Sometimes significantly further.
One that is going up to a trip that it should get on breeding who sweats up beforehand is less likely to stay than one with similar breeding who shows a relaxed attitude.
Value Is EverythingThanks for the detailed reply.
River Tiber looked just on the edge of being not lit up enough to pull but also not too relaxed as to be asleep.Blackbeard to conquer the World
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