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I agree GM. The GN dream seems even crazier for a horse rated 166 and with his jumping issues.
RTB, He had Kauto, Denman, Neptune Collonges and What A Friend at the time so it definitely made his decision a lot easier. Don’t know if he’d be as quick to make the decision nowadays.
None of these should be heading for a Gold Cup, the winner is a good horse but he was a country mile behind GDC last time and I think the Ryanair is a more realistic option for him.
Stay Away Fay looks like a Welsh National on soft ground (when isn’t it) horse to me but the NH Chase looks the most realistic option for him at the Festival unless it comes up real soft and then the RSA is a better option.
The problem he has is that he has no tactical speed and that is a issue if you are running on decentish ground i.e. not soft (which is what his best form is on) but being this was only his 3rd chase and first out of the novice division, I don’t think he has run a bad race at all but his jumping just needs tightening up a bit. Not sure he is up to winning a Gold Cup (could see him running 4th or 5th), unless we got real deep ground race like the year Master Oats won – he could also be hard to place if he falls short of true G1 level as he looks to small to carry top weights in the long distance chases.
Ahoy Senor really surprised me with his run today and it is very unfortunate that his stirrup broke jumping the 4th last, but I do think the Stayers Hurdle is the best option for him because as a 9 yr old his jumping issues are too ingrained into him for him to iron them out now and you can kick hurdles out of your way a damn sight easier than a fence.
The race tells you all you need to know about the state of British Chasers at the minute. Willie’s reserve string can come over here and mop up our Grade Ones with minimal fuss, never mind their best ones.
Stay Away Fay ran respectably but he clearly lacks gears and would need a frantic pace or heavy ground to win the 3 mile novice.
Stay away fay has run to around 160 there
Any improvement on that in march and he will be bang there
You’d think he’d be vulnerable to a horse like fact to file with a turn of pace
Still don’t really trust grangeclare west and his form. So will need to see how he gets on at the drf to form an opinion
I reckon he will get beat by fact to file personally.
“Still don’t really trust grangeclare west and his form.”
Sigh, nobody does. He’s got a strike rate under rules of 70%, win his beginners comfortably at a time when Willie’s were needing the run (including Fact To File who got beaten) , then went straight into Grade 1 over 3 miles and won it in a hand canter. But “he was on the stands’ side”.
At least he might be afforded the recognition of starting 2nd fav next weekend rather than 4th in the betting.
I wouldn’t be as dismissive of Stay Away Fay as some might be, as FF points out he needed to improve a stone probably to win today at the weights which is what made his price so bonkers and he’s given it a good go and showed some improvement. Its a very tough ask out of novice company unless you are very good, The Real Whacker was better today but he’s testament to how hard the transition is if you aren’t at that very good level. 160 odd would normally be enough to be very competitive in most novice grade 1’s at the festival. I do think they’d be better served making use of his jumping and the experience today which won’t be lost on him by making the running in the BANC and getting them in trouble behind because I can’t really see him passing horses unless they’ve gone too hard up front. What would concern me a bit is he hung right up that run in quite markedly.
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