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No real strong opinion on this, and on the verge of just enjoying.
Reluctant to swerve Royal Pagaille, smashing horse, and a real favourite of mine. It’ll all depend on the odds, and I’m also looking at Capodanno. This doesn’t “feel” like the plan for Capodanno, but at best priced 8’s, he’s the one I’m leaning towards.
If I do have a bet, it’ll be a token gesture
I was the same VTC, very tricky race to weigh up. Felt like the market could really flip flop, not sure the ground will be testing enough for Royale Pagaille and this is a really tough ask for Stay Away Fay as a novice as good a jumper as he is, and The Real Whacker just hasn’t really got going this season but returning to Cheltenham could help but not at the prices. I think like Stay Away Fay this could be a real culture shock for Gino out of handicaps and I’d be leaning towards Capodanno if any but not with any great confidence other than that somebody has to win this race and he’s got as much a chance as they do. Sorry for any Ahoy Senor fans but he’s the only one in the field I wouldn’t back at any odds. Really impressed with Nicholls giving this a go for what its worth, credit where it is due.
“This doesn’t “feel” like the plan for Capodanno”
True..but all the pieces are in motion. If tomorrow’s rivals had run at Leopardstown at Christmas, would they have beaten him? Probably not. If Gerri, Conflated or even I Am Maximus were running tomorrow, would they be fav? Probably.
Capodanno’s jumping is still too high and careful especially early in a race, to suit the Grand National so they might think sod it and just blow any remnant of juice left in his mark now. He could still have a decent late season target- Allaho injured and Galopin not likely to run at Punchestown after last year, and Capodanno likes Punchestown, so that could be the new target if he wins tomorrow. The Punchestown GC is worth €180k to the winner and he has a more realistic chance of winning that than coming 3rd or worse in a Grand National off 160+ for less money. Perhaps via tipping around the back in the Ryanair for 5th or 6th, or getting supplemented for the Gold Cup (JP has no runner and other than GDC, Willie has only has Monkfish who I would think goes to the stayers).
I’d rule most of these out in one way or another and Paul Nicholls isn’t sending Stay Away Fay here for some Cotswold air. This could be a bit of shrewd placement.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Its still a tough old ask for Stay Away Fay. I mean he’s almost certainly better than a 150 chaser in time but the reality is so far he is a 150 chaser on what he’s shown and some of that comes from his form over hurdles and he’s in here against 160+ chasers and he’s giving weight to one of them and he’s obviously lower on experience than all of them. The others do all have questions to answer of course they do but they are all talented on their day, all except Gino at least G1 winning novice chasers which Stay Away Fay isn’t yet, Royale Pagaille is an open G1 winner. I’m surprised at the market to be honest, its all based on negatives about the others and the potential of Stay Away Fay but nothing concrete. Something else will win I think but I have no idea what and that’s part of the problem, knowing which one you can trust. Heck even Ahoy Senor can win this if he jumps round its just a bit if at the moment.
Regarding Capodanno, at the weights if he wins this he probably isn’t going up much if at all from 159, he’s the same horse almost at the weights as Royale Pagaille and Ahoy Senor and even if he runs horrendous he probably isn’t going down much from it for Aintree either because he ran so well in the Savills Chase. Connections know realistically if he goes to Aintree he’s going there on a similar mark to last year.
Royal pagaille @6s seems madness to me, id have him clear fav, yes probably saves his best for haydock, but hes the best of thess
Will be laying stay away fay to three places, has alot to find and is capable, but feel this could be too much too soon
There’s much talk of Royal Pagaille not being suited by Cheltenham. He’s run there 3 times, all of those in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and on one of those runs in 2022 recorded his career best Topspeed figure. Probably best off a break which he gets here, 2 months since last run at Haydock.
Having two in this, isn’t really the way to do it, but had to add Royal Pagaille as he drifts out.
Capodanno 7’s
Royal Pagaille 11-2Stay Away Fay or The Real Whacker for me.
I think the grounds too quick for Royal Pagaille. He has struck into himself on more than one occasion when raced on quicker ground. Ahoy Senor looks finished and don’t rate the others.Oh…I missed the first half of the race sorting out warring children and tuned in thinking oh this is great they’re all pitching away and even Ahoy Senor is going well, what a great race.
Only realised afterwards what happened
I think Royal Pagaille was OK? That was a nasty enough looking fall too.
RIP GinoStay Away Fay is slow as a cart horse and should definitely be aimed at the NH chase at the festival now.
The RSA is shorter than today’s trip.It’s not a race if he taking to seriously looking for GC form , I backed Ahoy Senor and thought he ran better today , I really think They should have a go in the GN The Real Whacker didn’t attack his fences as we,ve seen in the past
I think Ahoy Senor is better suited by hurdles. Once he hits a fence, and he does this a few times during his races, he seems to lose his confidence and needs two or three better jumps to get it back. Why not go the Noble Yeats route with him? He was a decent staying hurdler in his younger days and would be real interesting for the Stayers.
Ruby, They should’ve switched him back to hurdles long ago and have probably ruined him now. JonJo O’Neill did the same with Minella Rocco.
So many potential high class staying hurdlers are ruined due to the Gold Cup dream. I’d rather win a World hurdle than watch my horse take fences out of the ground on a regular basis.
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