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There’s no message from you in either my PMs or email, and I can assure you that username Cormack15 has not been added to my junk filters
Phew! what a relief
Fishing Scottish waters with sharp barbs, wound-wire traces and leaden ledger weights is a favourite hobby of mine, second only to sucking eggs
On the contrary, SC, the
herd
are now seen to be chasing
value
, whereas the market proves a much better guide, now, moreso than ever.
That simply can’t happen: where the herd goes, by definition, the value must lie elsewhere.
As for the comparisons with cards and coin tosses etc, all you need to know there are percentages.
With horses, what matters imo, is your individual opinion of a horse’s character/ability, your ‘intuition’ on an animal’s potential or likely traits that might surface, your ‘feel’ for value . I don’t believe such skills can be quickly acquired.
I do accept that doing it as a hobby and for a living are poles apart. I don’t have the mental/emotional strength to withstand a long losing run if it was my sole income source – the ‘closed accounts’ aspect also applies, although I’ve had some very good value on Betfair at times.
Phew! what a relief
Fishing Scottish waters with sharp barbs, wound-wire traces and leaden ledger weights is a favourite hobby of mine, second only to sucking eggs
Just like to make absolutely clear, I have no problem with anything you’ve said Drone. We’ve had a difference of opinion, that’s all. You’re as polite as ever. (Thumbs up).Value Is EverythingGinger, I fear that with the approach that you outline, if you were to "go full time", you would be lucky to last three months. It’s all well and good spouting the overused drivel about calculating that "so and so has a 35% chance of winning and this one has half the chance of that one", but in reality it’s nonsense and is ultimately doomed from the off.
It’s GUESSwork, pure and simple.
The truth about TRUE value and how to profit from it has been stated in black and white for everyone on here. Most of you are too blind to see it.
Clue: It’s not in any of Ginger’s nonsense.
Unfortunately for the majority, that’s the way it has to be.
That’s why the herd are the many and the people that can spot true value and exploit it will always be very few in number.
Value is everything.
(But not the way you do it, Ginger).Ginger, I fear that with the approach that you outline, if you were to "go full time", you would be lucky to last three months. It’s all well and good spouting the overused drivel about calculating that "so and so has a 35% chance of winning and this one has half the chance of that one", but in reality it’s nonsense and is ultimately doomed from the off.
Why is it "ultimately doomed from the off"?
Any method is only as good as the accuracy of the putative selection method behind. To use your "35% chance of winning" example, let’s say that Ginge is such a good analyst that he can absolutely, positively identify horses with an exact 35% chance of winning.
If he backs those horses at 2-1 or better, could you explain to me how on earth he could mathmatically lose over the long term?
Mike
Ginger, I fear that with the approach that you outline, if you were to "go full time", you would be lucky to last three months. It’s all well and good spouting the overused drivel about calculating that "so and so has a 35% chance of winning and this one has half the chance of that one", but in reality it’s nonsense and is ultimately doomed from the off.
It’s GUESSwork, pure and simple.
The truth about TRUE value and how to profit from it has been stated in black and white for everyone on here. Most of you are too blind to see it.
Clue: It’s not in any of Ginger’s nonsense.
Unfortunately for the majority, that’s the way it has to be.
That’s why the herd are the many and the people that can spot true value and exploit it will always be very few in number.
Value is everything.
(But not the way you do it, Ginger).Thanks Godolphin.
If you look at my DLAP threads, I give price taken and (in brackets) the SP, so it is not difficult for anyone to decide whether my selections find "value". The profit I’ve shown in both threads also imply I find true "value". Some bookmakers have already limited my accounts. Stan James told me it is "because my average bet beats SP by over 20%" over a long period of time, and that is when their alarm bells go off. So it can’t be "GUESSwork", more like "INFORMED opinion".
I notice you’ve said value is not the way I do it, yet haven’t told us all how it is done, "Most of you are too blind to see it"
. Convenient that. Where’s the proof of your brilliance Godolphin? As I’ve said before anyway; there are more ways than one to make a "profit" at this game, but to find that profit a punter needs to find value. You may well have found another way Godolphin, although from what I see it’s just words so far.
Exchanges have resulted in bookmakers taking in to account what happens the night before betting "opens". But go back to before those exchanges existed… Bookmakers odds compilers and/or Peter Martins worked out their prices to 100% in exactly the same way I like to do things. Then they add their bookmakers mark up. Peter Martins and odds compilers use the same form books as I do. They have/had to work out every race where I can pick and choose which races to work out…
So if bookmakers can/could work out their prices to a reasonable standard, why can’t I or anyone else do the same? If I am using "GUESSwork" then bookmakers are guessing.
I may well fail at trying to become a "professional gambler". Even the best investor goes through a long losing run at some point. If mine happens to come at the start of my quest, then I’ll be in trouble within a year of starting. But that does not mean it is "doomed to failure". I believe my record and knowledge suggests I have a good chance of success, no more than that. If I fail then so be it.
Good luck with your way Godolphin (Or is it Reet in disguise?)
Value Is EverythingGinger, firstly I have only the one user name, one identity.
Secondly I’m disappointed that you’ve shown that not only did you not grasp the meaning of my post in any way, but you also can’t read a simple sentence.
You have misunderstood my comment completely, let me clarify it for you.
"Value is everything". Yes, it is – I totally agree.
"…but not the way you do it". Self-explanatory, there are easier ways of quantifying and exploiting an overlay.
As you are obviously of limited intelligence/literacy, I’d suggest you pursue a different career choice, you’ll be a lamb to the slaughter.
Finally, if you think I’m going to reveal a strategy that’s served me well over the last twenty years and remained out of the public domain, then you’re more dense than I thought.
Please don’t insult my intelligence by attempting to tell me how the market works.
GT has shown consistent profit on his selections on here. That indicates to me Godlophin that he has the a workable methodology.
Going full-time brings a load of other features into play – bank management, discipline, getting bets on (I see you are already restricted with some GT), psychologically coping with losing runs, etc, etc.
BUT if there is one person on here over the last few years I thought would have a shot at it it’s Gingertipster and I have no idea why you think he’d be cannon-fodder Godolphin.
Ginger, firstly I have only the one user name, one identity.
Secondly I’m disappointed that you’ve shown that not only did you not grasp the meaning of my post in any way, but you also can’t read a simple sentence.
You have misunderstood my comment completely, let me clarify it for you.
"Value is everything". Yes, it is – I totally agree.
"…but not the way you do it". Self-explanatory, there are easier ways of quantifying and exploiting an overlay.
As you are obviously of limited intelligence/literacy, I’d suggest you pursue a different career choice, you’ll be a lamb to the slaughter.
Finally, if you think I’m going to reveal a strategy that’s served me well over the last twenty years and remained out of the public domain, then you’re more dense than I thought.
Please don’t insult my intelligence by attempting to tell me how the market works.
Comedy gold!! You’re not one of the Yes Men are you? A friend of Alessio Rastani??
Mike
Ginger, firstly I have only the one user name, one identity.
It was said jokingly Godolphin.
Secondly I’m disappointed that you’ve shown that not only did you not grasp the meaning of my post in any way, but you also can’t read a simple sentence.
You have misunderstood my comment completely, let me clarify it for you.
"Value is everything". Yes, it is – I totally agree.
"…but not the way you do it". Self-explanatory, there are easier ways of quantifying and exploiting an overlay.
I fully understand what you meant Godolphin.
You believe "value is everything" as do I, yet you believe the way I do it fails to find that "value". Which is why I said "I notice you’ve said value is not the way I do it".I also said for the umpteenth time "there are more ways than one to make a "profit" at this game, but to find that profit a punter needs to find value". I continued by saying "You may well have found another way Godolphin, although from what I see it’s just words so far". ie You may well have found
another
(meaning different) way (than me) of finding that value/profit.
Am not dismissing your claims Godolphin, just that if I am to believe anyone of their prowess as a punter… They either need to talk a good race, explaining what they think of horses and races. Or show a profitable betting thread. Or explain at least something about the way they go about finding that value/profit. Am not asking for the whole shubang, just an idea. So no need to give secrets away. How much you tell is up to you Godolphin, but if remaining silent then you know what we’re all going to think.
As you are obviously of limited intelligence/literacy, I’d suggest you pursue a different career choice, you’ll be a lamb to the slaughter.
Thanks mate.
Limited intelligence? Well, I am not of high intelligence it’s true. My only O’Level Maths and left school at 15. But you don’t need a degree to know how to study form and I do know my subject. I’ve blown my own enough over this but will say it once more… Only this week part of a winning team in a Racing Quiz, beating the best minds of the Racing Post, Raceform and alike.As for "literacy", you got me. Am useless, don’t know long words or how to put a story together… But am not looking to write essays. May be you can explain to me Godolphin, why I need a degree in English Literature to pick winners?
Finally, if you think I’m going to reveal a strategy that’s served me well over the last twenty years and remained out of the public domain, then you’re more dense than I thought.
Am not dismissing your claims Godolphin, just that if I am to believe anyone of their prowess as a punter… They either need to talk a good race, explaining what they think of horses and races. Or show a profitable betting thread. Or explain at least something about the way they go about finding that value/profit. Am not asking for the whole shubang, just an idea of what you do. How much you tell is up to you Godolphin, but if you remain silent then you know what we’re all going to think.
There are people on here where it is obvious they know their stuff, without me knowing how they do things, Rory, Jeremy, RobNorth, Imperial Call and many more. Am sure some know more about the game than I do. Hopefully Godolphin, one day I can add your name to that list.Please don’t insult my intelligence by attempting to tell me how the market works.
Not "insulting your intelligence" at all Godolphin. I had no knowing your intelligence from the little I knew about you my friend, so just tried to explain things. What’s wrong with that? How you can accuse me of doing so anyway is amazing, with your trigger happy fingers.
Please Godolphin remember, just because someone does not write like Alistair Down, does not make him an idiot.Thanks Mike and Corm for your kind words.
Value Is EverythingGinger, firstly I have only the one user name, one identity.
Secondly I’m disappointed that you’ve shown that not only did you not grasp the meaning of my post in any way, but you also can’t read a simple sentence.
You have misunderstood my comment completely, let me clarify it for you.
"Value is everything". Yes, it is – I totally agree.
"…but not the way you do it". Self-explanatory, there are easier ways of quantifying and exploiting an overlay.
As you are obviously of limited intelligence/literacy, I’d suggest you pursue a different career choice, you’ll be a lamb to the slaughter.
Finally, if you think I’m going to reveal a strategy that’s served me well over the last twenty years and remained out of the public domain, then you’re more dense than I thought.
Please don’t insult my intelligence by attempting to tell me how the market works.
I’d be surprised if you had any intelligence to insult, arrogance maybe…
. Convenient that. 
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