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Hardly a lay of the year at 3.9 though is it? Could do yourself a lot of damage if it goes wrong.
Surely a two horse race? Ace usually runs well but never wins, the others are leagues behind Shirocco and Ouija Board. A tough call but the conditions may swing it Ouija Boards way.
Shirocco is a genuine top-class Group 1 horse. Ouija Board is a very good filly but is vulnerable at this level, as her performances in all aged Group 1’s show. There doesn’t seem to be any edgeat all in the prices and I think it is one to watch.
Maybe not lay of the year, but she will definitely be backed in judging by the comments on here, and I just cannot see her winning, the race is not going to be run to suit her at all.
They are always going on about how Ace needs real fast ground yet breeding doesnt support this and his best race was probably on the yielding at Belmont. I only noticed recently that he is a half brother to Sybillin.
SHL
Rather than shortening Ouija Board is now out to 4.4. What are people thinking.
Little between the front two, coin flip for me, making 4.4 an absolutely outstanding price.
Roly – stick a months worth of booze money on it, if it wins go on a bender and if it loses, well, a few dry weeks never hurt anyone.
Hello,
I find the discussion about the race being a "Match" a bit bewildering. Ouija Board is not exactly trustworthy [Won 2 out of six], and Shirrocco has lost 50% of it’s races !! :(<br> With this form, I will be putting a little on NOTABLE GUEST to surprise us all, plus a quarter for second sounds attractive.. :cool:
regards,
doyley
- Total Posts 17716
Shiroco looks to have improved since his Arc fourth, and should prove too strong for Ouija Board, even on faster ground. Particularly liked his jockey’s comments "He is like a motorbike, and you can put him anywhere" in the context of what looks to be a tactical affair today.<br> Not much mileage in the prices, and I wouldn’t be playing, but the forecast looks a reasonable option for those who do.
Shiroccos Breeders Cup form would see him home and hosed but against that Epsom is a track like no other and both horse and jockey are unproven on the track.<br>The best horse didn’t win last years Coronation Cup.
Remember lads it’s not about the horse most likely to win, which is Shirocco, it’s about PRICES and at the prices there is only one horse to be on in this race.
"Remember lads it’s not about the horse most likely to win, which is Shirocco, it’s about PRICES and at the prices there is only one horse to be on in this race."
I’m of the opinion that you should always back the horse you think will win and if you don’t fancy the price then don’t back it.. Anyone else think that or will you back a horse because of price value? or should I just start another thread!!
Personally I won’t be backing anything cos I can’t decide which of the front two will win.. and I will no doubt pick the wrong one
Oh.. Well I tend to back horses at greater then 10 to 1 so obviously I back a lot of losers and I dont expect them to win. But if there is one certainty here is that most people are wrong about most things most of the time. There is however some possibilities to make money by backing horses that are overpriced over a period of time assuming of course you can actually do that. I have backed Championship point for the Derby at 18’s and yes, I do fancy him to be there or there abouts. Ive also backed Mountain at 215 on betfair. Do I fancy him?? Well not particularly but I think his chances are better than that.
SHL
I used to bet like that always searching for value but it didn’t pay for me in the long term, the winners are always sweeter but much less frequent. I tend not to back odds on shots but I ignore the prices until i’ve made my selection… So if i pick something at a big price it’s a bonus…
Aragorn – if, as you suggest, you think it’s a toss up between Shirroco and Ouija Board then surely, surely OB is then the value bet.<br>
Yeah I agree she is the "value" but I haven’t got a strong opinion of which will win so I won’t back either of em.. <br>If I was asked to pick i’d say shirocco will win it as his recent form is stronger, but then if ouija board shows up and runs to the top of her form she could win.. When i’m split in a race like this I have a knack of picking wrong one. The Champion hurdle was a case in point as I thought it was a toss up between BI and MJ and I backed MJ because of the price but if they were the same price i’d have backed BI. Hence why i’ve decided to only back the horse I think I will win regardless of price (except odds on shots, I tend to leave them alone, I guess thats searching for value).. I’m not scientific in my approach I just know that this has been working for me since cheltenham…. I think sometimes the price can get in the way of judgement. But it’s just a view I take.
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