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Obviously you were told weeks ago, 2 months ago the plans were completly different obviously, if you actually heard what Stoute said were the plans were at Sandown he immediately said Tartan Bearer was Curragh bound then a tilt at The Eclipse Stakes, and obviously the plans changed at the ground of the Gold Cup, he was pulled out and the PoW was immediately mentioned as he was the most wound up Stoute horse which is why they kept him out on the gallops nearly every week at Newmarket.
I’m surprised you have bought into the Rip Van Winkle hype CH.
He has never been placed in a Group 1 or 2, and has no excuses for his runs to date. Added to the fact you’ll have a 3 pound penalty (Heffernan riding in UK) and Sea the Stars who has easily beaten him twice, not to mention Conduit, Twice Over & Cima de Triomphe, who have all put in superior performances to RVW. He would be 10 or 12/1 if trained by anyone else.
I’m the last one taken in by any hype about the horse Andrew- in fact I laid him in the Derby. My reasons for backing him now include the excellent each-way shape to this race, the poor recent record of Derby winners (Motivator, Authorised anybody?) and the fact that he fits the profile of several recent winners. He reminds me a bit of Hawk Wing in that they kept banging on about how brilliant he was but he kept underperforming on the track. He did however have some good days, the Eclipse being one of them. I don’t think it’s out of the question that RVW could do the same and I’ll be very surprised (and a lot poorer) if he doesn’t hit the frame in a very uncompetitive looking race. I can’t see Conduit having the speed for a Group 1 at this trip.
I can’t see any possible way he can turn around things with STS, but of course I could be wrong. I don’t see this race set up as an each way race for RVW, as you have Archipenko, Cima de Triomphe and Twice Over, in addition to Sea the Stars and Conduit, who should finish in front of him on all known form, even factoring in potential improvement from the 3 year olds.
I think Rip Van Winkle should be 13/8 or 7/4 lowest to place.
However, what may help the three year olds is the overly generous weight for age scale.
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Obviously you were told weeks ago, 2 months ago the plans were completly different obviously, if you actually heard what Stoute said were the plans were at Sandown he immediately said Tartan Bearer was Curragh bound then a tilt at The Eclipse Stakes, and obviously the plans changed at the ground of the Gold Cup, he was pulled out and the PoW was immediately mentioned as he was the most wound up Stoute horse which is why they kept him out on the gallops nearly every week at Newmarket.
Now that simply isn’t true. Your an awful man for exagerating ….All Sir Michael said was "He’s in the Eclipse and didn’t seem to mind the ground", that day. Absolutely nothing about him running in it. "He also said Conduit is in all the big races we’ll have to see where he goes" In other words he told them nothing like always.
At currentodds I’d far rather have Archipenko each way than Rip Van Winkle. He may well come good one day but I strongly suspect he’s no Hawk Wing.
However, what may help the three year olds is the overly generous weight for age scale.
Evidence, please.
Well the way you started in this thread Fist you were unaware that was indeed the real plan and you will look a fool if you continue to say it was the plan all along.
You can shout and love your info all you want but he did mention The Tattersalls Gold Cup and Coral Eclipse, no word on the PoW till the wash out which I mentioned could be the plan after the wash out and I was right there.
And as for the exaggeration, that is rich coming from you, he cant stay 12f to you cause of the way Stoute said he can get 12f. That is an exaggeration.
I’m surprised you have bought into the Rip Van Winkle hype CH.
I’m surprised too.
Hawk Wing won a Group 1 at 2yo, was possibly an unlucky loser in the Guineas and was a blatant non stayer (who ran with great credit) in the Derby. I don’t see any real similarities other than the Ballydoyle hype surrounding them
RVW was firmly put in place in both the Guineas and the Derby by STS and never at any point looked like threatening him.
I can’t think one even half decent reason why RVW should beat STS (save for a random poor effort from the latter named).
I wouldn’t touch RVW with a bargepole at 9-2 and could easily see him out of the frame here – Conduit, Twice Over, Archipenko and CIma DT could all be good enough to finish ahead of him
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Well the way you started in this thread Fist you were unaware that was indeed the real plan and you will look a fool if you continue to say it was the plan all along.
You can shout and love your info all you want but he did mention The Tattersalls Gold Cup and Coral Eclipse, no word on the PoW till the wash out which I mentioned could be the plan after the wash out and I was right there.
And as for the exaggeration, that is rich coming from you, he cant stay 12f to you cause of the way Stoute said he can get 12f. That is an exaggeration.
First of I gave my opinion and said I thought SMS was convinced he didn’t really get 12f so he was going to keep him to 1m2f. As it turns out the horse finds very little in a finish over 1m4f or 1m2f by the looks of it. We won’t have to wait long to find out as he is set to run next week over 1m4f for the POWS at Newmarket all being well. SMS will be going for his 7th win in the race
When did I say I knew what SMS’s plan was for Conduit or I knewwhen the thread started?……..Up until the evening of the 28th of May my time, I thought Tartan Bearer was being aimed at the Eclipse because you claimed SMS said he was. Only then did I know he wasn’t and it never was plan A.
100/1 says you can’t back that up by finding a website article where SMS said Tartan Bearer was being aimed at the Eclipse…. you pull that one out the sky too
The man aid absolutely nothing more than they would wait and see how things panned out.No doubt has TB won out the park at Ascot and Conduit has been beaten out of sight at Sandown then plan B would have come into force as The Eclipse is a race he particulary likes to win.
Anyway I don’t say things just for the sake of saying them I found an article below that backs up that Conduit was Plan A not TB.
I’l be waiting along time for you to come up with yours
Conduit can take a significant step towards greatness by winning the CoralEclipse at Sandown on Saturday.
Sir Michael Stoute’s late maturing colt started last season running in handicaps, yet by the end of the campaign had won the St Leger and the Breeders’ Cup Turf in America.
Those races were over 1m6f and 1m4f respectively and next weekend he is out to prove himself one of the most versatile champions of recent years by adding a toplevel 1m2f prize to his roll of honour.
The four-year-old warmed up for his first big target of the season by finishing second, beaten a whisker, to last year’s Italian Derby winner Cima De Triomphe in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes last month.
Run over the same course and distance as the Eclipse, it was only a Group 3 event but Conduit emerged with huge credit as he was giving 7lb to his 11 rivals and looked sure to come on a lot for his first run since last autumn.
Stoute’s record with older horses is the stuff of legend and his post-race reaction that evening hinted strongly that he expects another big season from Conduit.
"I’m delighted and we can only be happy with that," said Stoute (right), who rarely uses ten words when one will do.
In keeping with the trainer’s original plan, Conduit is set to tackle next month’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes after the Eclipse, with the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe his main autumn target.
Victory in any of these three races would considerably boost Conduit’s reputation, yet the Eclipse is potentially the most significant as regards his stallion career because it would conclusively show he has speed to complement his proven stamina.
Interesting stuff that last part and shows you how logical a thinker tha man is and why he is so successful.
Well obviously there mentioned The Tattersalls Gold Cup with Tartan Bearer (in which he did mention the Eclipse like it or lump it), cause he ran so early and it was the next group 1 for him, by the time you pull that article on me The Tattersalls Gold Cup had already ran without him. Peter Reynolds has said they like to rest Tartan Bearer so running him in the PoW and sending Conduit to the Eclipse surely makes better sense which I said I think and a few weeks later someone tells you on Skype that Conduit is running at Sandown, and then you add your own spin saying it was the plan all along.
Dont forget he ran both of them at Sandown so Stoute and Ballymacoll were always in a good position anyway, and Peter Reynolds said it was either Tartan Bearer or Conduit going to the Eclipse and that was in the Racing Post this week I believe.
To be honest this argument is relatively adding nothing to this thread like your article which would have had substance 5 days before it was printed, I find it funny you seem to waste time that could be better spent on something more worthwhile.
ANYWHO
I’d like Conduit to win but with Sea The Stars he is better than Motivator and Authorized and there best trip was 1m4f he is going to be hard to beat, Conduit couldn’t beat Cima De Triomphe giving him 7lbs so it will be tough giving Sea The Stars 11lbs, I think 10/11 is actually great value where as Conduit is a little short at 7/2 and if I were backing him 5’s maybe I’d be tempted, but a serious racehorse. EDIT – To be fair for his run at Sandown he looked nowhere near race fit so I thought it was very game to put a performance like that.
Rip Van Winkle’s run at Epsom was perculiar he was always travelling with F&G then he was nowhere then he was finishing like a train, he clearly didn’t stay I feel at Epsom hence why in a fast run race at The Curragh he would have bee trailing, would be interesting if he can finally get it here but 4/1 again is unbackable for a horse who hasn’t even placed since he beat Cuis Ghiare.
Archipenko will probably be a TOTE place for me.
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Authorised 4/7 was regarded as unbeatable in the Eclipse and a short priced fav for Arc and lost in both. You assume Sea the Stars is a better horse and he looks to be but racing agianst his elders is where the real test lies. There is no hard evidence yet that these 3yo are worth a pinch of salt yet.
As far as the weight difference is concerned that is the calculated difference for age at this time of the year and isn’t really a factor.
Never stopped SMS’s Notnowcato beating Authorized and GW was just beat for 2nd.
Sea the Stars looks the part but he will have to be 7 to 10lbs better than Authorized to win. Conduit is certainly regarded a lot higher than Notnowcato was that’s for sure.
My problem is working Sea the Stars out. He travelled like a dream in both his classic wins but although he definitely picked up in the Guineas that Delegator just stopped mid run which may have made him look better than he actually is.
The Derby turned out to be a complete farce and was no more like a stamina test than the guineas was. I watched a video the other day and they tore the race to shreds saying it was the slowest any horses had come down Tattenham hill in history or some crap like that.
This 1m2f round Sandown at the pace this Eclipse looks like being run at will stretch even Sea the Stars and it is then we will see what he’s made of.
If it developes into a fight between him and Conduit and he wins this like he did his 2 previous races he will join the true greats of the game IMO
One thing’s for sure Conduit is a totally different ball game to what Delegator and Fame and Glory were when they met him.
Funny horse that Archipenko. They make him fav for these big races but he’s very inconsistant could run one way or the other I suppose.
I’m surprised Cima de Triomphe is going here as he was said to be going to the Princess of Wales. Unless he has improved an awful lot since Sandown or he simply wasn’t fully fit then, you wouldn’t expect he could beat Conduit at 7lbs worse off. If he does stay in that has got to be a tip in itself and he could be worth a few quid in straight forcasts with the front 2.
With the 2 front runners and Twice over looking to take it up at some point 2 to 3 furlongs out it’s going to be down to who can produce the best combination of speed and stamina.
Conduit has both and Sea the Stars looks as if he has and RVW certainly has. Should be a cracker. Fancy the older horses could provide a shock here
Conduit by 2 to 3 lengths with Cima de Triomphe 2nd and Sea the Stars and Rip Van Winkle seperated by the shortest of margins for 3rd.
Re the ‘hype’ around Rip Van Winkle…he certainly hasn’t delivered based on his reputation and I guess thats where the debate lies….his reputation.
Ballydoyle having been bigging him up based on his home work but he has run only creditably, not spectacularly in Group 1s.It’s well known that Aidan and the boys can put a positive spin on a horses attributes, which often ranges from very shrewd to the mildly amusing, but I am trying to remember the number of times they have gone on and on about a horse and he has not delivered at the top level.
Hawk Wing, George Washington, Yeats all of those were accused of being hyped…got superstar reviews from Ballydoyle… but all eventually proved to be superstars.Maybe One Cool Cat, but I dont remember the praise being quite so fulsome for him and anyway he was a dual G1 winner (4 group races overall)…so would not count as a failed hype horse exactly.
Anyway…when will Rip Van Winkle, the best named horse in training, wake up…Saturday?
I too, have been reviewng the Derby tape, and in all honesty, the more I watch it, the more impressive Sea The Stars becomes. If you look carefully, you may notice that when Fame and Glory and the other pursuers make their attempts to try and overhaul STS inside the final furlong, the John Oxx colt actually quickens again like the true class horse he is – with Michael Kinane totally aware of just what he had beneath him.
The last 2,000 Gns/ Derby winner to win the Eclipse was Nashwan, and just like Dick Hern colt twenty years ago, I am utterly convinced that Sea The Stars will also have too much speed ( and class) for his rivals come Saturday.
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I bow to no-one in my admiration for Kinane but he has been in serious decline over the past couple of seasons. Things fell perfectly on both big days this year but I can’t help feeling that he will come unstuck on this horse before the year is out.
Archipenko has been ruled out going by reports…sore one for those of you who backed him
Archipenko has been ruled out of Saturday’s Coral-Eclipse.
The South African entire, a general 14-1 chance to win the Sandown showpiece, has a swollen fetlock.
Juan Nel, assistant to trainer Mike de Kock, said: "It’s a race we’ve been targeting for a long time and it’s very hard to take.
"We discovered the problem early on Thursday morning and it’s a huge disappointment.
"We haven’t had a full prognosis yet, so we’re a little bit in the dark in terms of when he’ll be back.
"It’s a huge blow, but that’s racing."
Archipenko, a Group One winner in Hong Kong, was last seen in action on these shores winning the Ascot Summer Mile last July.
I too, have been reviewng the Derby tape, and in all honesty, the more I watch it, the more impressive Sea The Stars becomes. If you look carefully, you may notice that when Fame and Glory and the other pursuers make their attempts to try and overhaul STS inside the final furlong, the John Oxx colt actually quickens again like the true class horse he is – with Michael Kinane totally aware of just what he had beneath him.
The last 2,000 Gns/ Derby winner to win the Eclipse was Nashwan, and just like Dick Hern colt twenty years ago, I am utterly convinced that Sea The Stars will also have too much speed ( and class) for his rivals come Saturday.
He quickened because it was a test of speed and he’s a Guineas winner, the race wasn’t run to suit mile and a half horses.
I’m with Fist, fast pace and I’d rather be in Conduit’s corner.
If it wasn’t a race for a mile and a half horses (which I agree) surely a good indication how he will fair here.
Conduit
Cima De Triomphe
Steel Tango
Twice Over
Lang Shining
Sea The Stars
Rip Van Winkle
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Set Sail
Malibu BayFor what it’s worth i’m with Sea the Stars. It never ceases to amaze me the ammount of people that say a horse can’t do something when it hasn’t even tried it i.e ‘won’t get the trip’, or ‘won’t like the fast pace’. I think STS will actually like a good pace, and will be in a nice position to take it up and win this race. RipVanWinkle, well if the penny finally drops this could take it aswell, but i’ll side with a horse who has proven quality. I’m confident that come Saturday the Paco Boy trip doubters and STS derby trip doubters will be eating some nice words mixed up in big bowl of humble pie.
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