- This topic has 291 replies, 53 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 3 months ago by
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Posts
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I’m not listing all my bets – just the Grand National. You’ll know when I’ve had a nice winner – there’ll be a spurt of GN bets.
- Total Posts 17716
FIST, this almighty gamble that you and your source from Sir Michaels
have created on Conduit at 14/1 12/1 10/1 and a bit of 8/1 for the Eclipse!
He is currently trading at 18.5 on Betfair?? Whats going on? Your sources
seem to be taking the P**s out of you!You need to start getting up earlier if you want to get one over on me laddy. Your a cheeky beggar but here’s some free advice for you
You worry about TB running in the PoW mate and let me worry about Conduit. If something comes out of the Derby which would mean Conduit having a very hard race before the King George then you’re stoomped.
Whereas we have already backed Conduit in a POW-KG double at excellent odds and don’t give a hoot which path he takes as long as he wins.
The chances of TB running in the King George are about zero to minus 10 and Betfair have got it wrong on one of them for he Eclipse if both keep fit and well.
My advice is, if you like TB that much and think Conduit won’ t run in the Eclipse grab TB’s price on the machine for the Eclipse and cover your backside.
My view is Tartan Bearer will go
Prince Of Wales Stakes >> Irish Champion Stakes or International Stakes >> Champion Stakes
Conduit;
?? >> KG & QE Stakes >> Arc Trial >> Arc
Erm, he already has. It is in the Cheltenham section.
Erm Gerald, Fair play to Fist for the Cheltenham one, but we cant suggest
your Ayr Gold Cup winner in that!I can always suggest the Ayr Gold Cup winner in the Ayr Gold Cup thread, which I abandoned because no one else was interested.
I didn’t want to list all my bets before, because I was embarrassed by how little I had bet on the Oaks, and my Derby Win and Place books were on the whole bad. You want them, so here they are. The only ones which have had some research are for the GN – all the others are spur of the moment things. Thankfully, because they are spur of the moment, they are also small.
Showing 1 – 32 of 32 bets
Market Selection Type Bet ID Bet
placed Odds
req. Stake
(£) Liability
(£) Avg. odds
matched Date
matchedFRA / Long (FRA) 4th Oct / Arc De Triomphe
Conduit Back 8163940246 06-Jun-09
18:33 12.5 20.00 12.5 06-Jun-09 18:33
Ask Back 8163947850 06-Jun-09
18:34 32 15.00 32 06-Jun-09 18:34GB / Aintree 2010 / Grand National
Drumconvis Back 7665623895 09-Apr-09
03:37 95 8.00 1 09-Apr-09 03:37
Drumconvis Back 7665626356 09-Apr-09
03:38 90 16.00 1 09-Apr-09 03:38
Garde Champetre Back 7678775589 10-Apr-09
23:10 80 17.00 80 10-Apr-09 23:10
Merigo Back 8042937965 22-May-09
17:06 100 13.00 101.53 22-May-09 17:06
Golden Flight Back 8095536432 29-May-09
00:50 110 13.98 112.85 29-May-09 00:50
Merigo Back 8095540180 29-May-09
00:53 110 6.59 110 29-May-09 00:53
Bothar Na Back 8095543324 29-May-09
00:54 120 3.99 120 29-May-09 00:54
Russian Trigger Back 8095548933 29-May-09
00:57 90 0.86 90 29-May-09 00:57
Russian Trigger Back 8106152795 30-May-09
13:04 85 19.04 85 30-May-09 13:04
Preists Leap Back 8113364652 31-May-09
00:17 90 0.48 100 31-May-09 00:17
Himalayan Trail Back 8113371765 31-May-09
00:20 120 13.99 120 31-May-09 00:20
Bothar Na Back 8118594686 31-May-09
17:11 120 5.00 120 31-May-09 17:11
Merigo Back 8119773342 31-May-09
19:39 100 15.00 102.65 31-May-09 19:39
Himalayan Trail Back 8119810462 31-May-09
19:47 120 6.00 122.37 31-May-09 19:47
Parsons Legacy Back 8147980596 04-Jun-09
20:59 100 4.00 105 04-Jun-09 20:59
Kilbeggan Blade Back 8147990850 04-Jun-09
21:00 150 14.00 150.36 04-Jun-09 21:00
Bothar Na Back 8148006023 04-Jun-09
21:02 120 3.00 120 04-Jun-09 21:02
Golden Flight Back 8148011603 04-Jun-09
21:02 120 16.00 120.89 04-Jun-09 21:02
High Chimes Back 8148019040 04-Jun-09
21:03 160 3.99 164.99 04-Jun-09 21:03
Himalayan Trail Back 8148029690 04-Jun-09
21:04 110 7.00 112.84 04-Jun-09 21:04
Morgan Be Back 8148051603 04-Jun-09
21:06 150 7.97 165.01 04-Jun-09 21:06
Iris de Balme Back 8148061717 04-Jun-09
21:07 130 13.00 137.78 04-Jun-09 21:07GB / Royal Ascot 16th Jun / Kings Stand Stks
Fleeting Spirit Back 7901372991 06-May-09
02:43 13.5 9.00 13.5 06-May-09 02:43GB / Royal Ascot 19th Jun / Coronation Stks
Reggane Back 8163819332 06-Jun-09
18:24 16 4.00 16 06-Jun-09 18:24GB / Royal Ascot 20th Jun / Wokingham Stks
Musaalem Back 8046334447 22-May-09
21:46 42 2.00 46 22-May-09 21:46
Something Back 8162990611 06-Jun-09
17:15 25 10.00 25.05 06-Jun-09 17:15GB / Sand 4th Jul / Coral Eclipse
Cima de Triomphe Back 8163052601 06-Jun-09
17:21 13.5 1.99 13.5 06-Jun-09 17:21
Tartan Bearer Back 8163059796 06-Jun-09
17:22 16 2.00 16 06-Jun-09 17:22
Conduit Back 8163061856 06-Jun-09
17:22 23 2.00 23 06-Jun-09 17:22Breeding & Bloodstock / Top Prize Money Sire
Cape Cross Back 8157309688 06-Jun-09
02:32 12 5.00 12 06-Jun-09 02:32Market Selection Type Bet ID Bet
placed Odds
req. Stake
(£) Liability
(£) Avg. odds
matched Date
matchedAUS / Flem (AUS) 3rd Nov / Melbourne Cup 2009
Mad Rush Back 423347861 06-Jun-09
18:43 80 10.00 84.52 06-Jun-09 18:43I’ve been put away in the Eclipse, because the first thing I read of Oxx’s after the Derby mentioned the Irish Derby.
My bets at the bookies are restricted to the (Ascot) Gold Cup bets in that thread.
My betfair account currently shows I have made a £700 profit to date, which is rather embarrassing, considering I had £21 @ 71 Mon Mome and £50 @ 26 Extraterrestrial. (Not aftertiming, as I can pull up half-a-dozen postings indicating I was on Mon Mome, and I posted on the horses that you have followed over the cliff thread the day before the Spring Cup that I was going to have a big bet on Extraterrestrial.)
- Total Posts 17716
Nothing enbarrasing about it Gerald at least your winning
. I close my book after Cheltenham each year and since March 23rd I was well into 5 figures up and am now 4 figures down after Spacious and my Derby bets bit the dust yesterday. Still got Canford Cliffs, Mastercraftsman, Yeats and Conduit but its my worst period for years 
That’s despite the fact my Chelteham 2010 AP bets came out of last seasons winnnings and not from the money I have gone through in 7-8 weeks and if I don’t get my finger out it could get a lot worse.- Total Posts 17716
My view is Tartan Bearer will go
Prince Of Wales Stakes >> Irish Champion Stakes or International Stakes >> Champion Stakes
Conduit;
?? >> KG & QE Stakes >> Arc Trial >> Arc
Tartan Bearer may well go for the Prince Of Wales but I doubt if SMS will go to the trouble of getting him spot on for a races in Ireland in September where rain is the name of the agme. Wasn’t he withdrawn because of soft ground the other week?
He does tend to support the Champion Stakes at Newmarket but usually with a few lesser lights or a horse he knows enjoys cut in the ground.
Glodetrotter Pilsudski did win it for him 10 years ago and 2 years later knicked the race from the odds on fav Montijeu.
Mention of globetrotting Pilsudski also brings to mind Singspiel.
Surely Tartan Bearer will go for the Canadian International at Woodbine? [edit: 1m4f, end of September.]
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Don’t know Gerald but wherever he goes TAPK will get it wrong
if you see him let him know Sir Michael Stoute said on Saturday Conduit will either go to France or to Sandown for the Eclipse.His odds are halfed for the Eclipse but if the French race over 1m4f has an easy look to it perhaps he’ll send him there and then the King George.
Got my fingers crossed he will go for the Eclipse as planned.
Don’t know Gerald but wherever he goes TAPK will get it wrong
if you see him let him know Sir Michael Stoute said on Saturday Conduit will either go to France or to Sandown for the Eclipse.His odds are halfed for the Eclipse but if the French race over 1m4f has an easy look to it perhaps he’ll send him there and then the King George.
Got my fingers crossed he will go for the Eclipse as planned.
FIST, Conduit is currently trading at 14 on Betfair, he was trading at 18,now half of 18 is 9, but i know you have 14,12,10,and 8/1! The day a St Leger winner wins the Eclipse is the day i am happy to be called "The Worst After Timer" or You know what for short!
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Stop being such a fanny. The horse was actually 20 21 22 and 23 yesterday. He’s 13 now but was 12.5 I suppose I should have said approx half.
If your going to state something then ffs make sure of your facts because so far you have more AP non runners than Beverley race course has on a bad day.
The day a St Leger winner wins the Eclipse
Do you think Nijinsky couldn’t win the Eclipse?
If Sea The Stars won the St Leger this year, do you reckon he couldn’t win the Eclipse next year?
Commanche Run won the St Leger and the Benson & Hedges Gold Cup. Is that good enough for you?
Gordon I think you are making the mistake of labelling Conduit a St Leger horse just because he had the misfortune of winning it.
The day a St Leger winner wins the Eclipse
Do you think Nijinsky couldn’t win the Eclipse?
If Sea The Stars won the St Leger this year, do you reckon he couldn’t win the Eclipse next year?
Commanche Run won the St Leger and the Benson & Hedges Gold Cup. Is that good enough for you?
Gordon I think you are making the mistake of labelling Conduit a St Leger horse just because he had the misfortune of winning it.
Who was it that said Conduit was a Gold Cup horse? Crazy!
Conduit won the Breeders Cup Turf and, if SMS didnt have such a good hand in last years Derby, may have been entered/gone close in that last year.
I firmly believe Conduit is as effective, if not more, over 1m2 and 1m4. The horse is a versatile beast!
- Total Posts 17716
Also, Oh So Sharp was 2nd to Comanche Run in that B & H, and she went on to win – guess what?
I’ve had a go at making sense of this race, but I’m not sure how successful I’ve been. There are too many imponderables, but as I started betting in it yesterday, I may as well start paying attention.
First of all, as I’ve already intimated a couple of times, I don’t take it as guaranteed that the race will be run on fast ground.
Sea The Stars is about 2/1 favourite, but Oxx has mentioned the Irish Derby as well. I think he’ll run in the first that has suitable ground. If it was okay at the Curragh, I don’t think he’d take a chance on the English weather by waiting a week for the Eclipse.
(I’m basically taking a bet on the Irish weather by backing some of the older horses at big prices.)
Now for AOB. As I think Fist has pointed out, AOB doesn’t have any other milers apart from Mastercraftsman. He’ll run in the St James’s Palace Stakes. However, if it came up Soft at Sandown, I reckon he’d let Mastercraftsman take his chance in the Eclipse. In general for this season however, I think the question of whether Mastercraftsman stays 10f is immaterial, as the horse will be kept at a mile. I’ve put a couple of quid on, just in case.
Rip Van Winkle is unappealing (to me) at about 5/1. I’m not astute enough to work out which other horse AOB will send.Casual Conquest and Presvis have been packed away in cotton wool until the autumn.
Lush Lashes isn’t entered, and will run in the Pretty Polly, a week earlier.Never On Sunday and Vison d’Etat are both going for the Prince Of Wales Stakes. Never On Sunday has an Eclipse entry, and Vision d’Etat doesn’t.
The Prince Of Wales Stakes is 17 days earlier. I have assumed that Pipedreamer will go for both races, just like last year. Other people seem to like the horse, so I have gone in big (for me). £26.56 @ 27.04 I’m assuming he won’t be such a big price on the day, and I will trade out some of it.
Now for the nub of the matter, sorting out Sir Michael.
What one shouldn’t get bogged down in is thinking such-an-such is a 10f horse, and so-and-so is a 12f horse. Pilsudski and Singspiel were both campaigned at both distances. I think Triptych won 2 Coronation Cups and 2 International Stakes.
Here are the horses:-
Ask
Conduit
Doctor Freemantle
Tartan Bearer
TajaaweedAre there any others?
Here are the races:-
1m2f Prince Of Wales Stakes (G1)
1m4f Hardwicke Stakes (G2)
1m4f Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (G1)
1m2f Eclipse (G1)
1m4f King George (G1)Are there any others?
It has already been announced that Doctor Freemantle will go for the Hardwicke Stakes.
Am I right in thinking that Ask will go Irish St Leger, Arc? (That is what the Racing Post says.)
Tartan Bearer is running in the Prince Of Wales Stakes. I think it is quite possible that he could have a break after that, and then go
International, Irish Champion, Canadian International, Champion Stakes, Japan Cup. (International at York optional). I’m not up-to-date with all the new-fangled races in the Far East.
Conduit is obviously going for the King George. It is just a question of whether he goes for the Eclipse or the Grand-Prix de Saint-Cloud. Saint-Cloud is better timewise. It would then mean that Tajaaweed had a clear run at the Eclipse.
Through ignorance, the last horse I am going to bring into the picture is Cima De Triomphe. Rather lazily, I just assumed this would be going for the Eclipse, and I had another bet on it on Sinday. However,
28May09 Sandown (10Gd ,RPR115)
I’m due a few of these. My first impression is that he might be better over a mile and a half, but we have got choices. If we stay at a mile and a quarter, we can aim at the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and the Eclipse, but if we do go up to a mile and a half, we have the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and the King George to consider – Luca CumaniI kid you not, when trying to put £10 on Tajaaweed, I didn’t notice that I had clicked on the horse next to it. Apparently, she might be running in a Maiden on Wednesday.
Anyway, this is how my Eclipse book looks now:-
£2.77 @ 20.5 Conduit
£6.24 @ 17.02 Tartan Bearer
£26.56 @ 27.04 Pipedreamer
£12.99 @ 13.15 Cima de Triomphe
£1.99 @ 28 Mastercraftsman
£10 @ 136.56 Tajaaweed
£10 @ 141.64 Totally Devoted
[/color:yc0frmu7]There you go – the perils of ante-post betting; £70, and there’s a possibility that none of them run.
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There are many things that could happen with weather, horse fitness, where other horses run etc all being factors.
See the Stars
is unlikely to run but could if the ground was really bad for the Irish Derby. He’d be a very short priced fav if he did.
Tajaaweed
has been sidelined and was supposed to run about 6 weeks ago. If he could have run I would have thought SMS would have taken the opportunity to get him prepared for Ascot. He’s apparantly a big horse and was being touted for the Derby last year so I’m not sure what his best tri would be. I doubt if he would have the class for the Eclipse but he is in the Hardwick along with Dr Freemantle.
Tartan Bearer
will most likely stick to 1m2f for the forseable future. Much depends on how he runs in the Prince of Wales. If he were to win it every easily there is a chance SMS will send him to the Eclipse and Conduit to the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. In an ideal world SMS would love to win both but if he only has one bullet to fire the Eclipse will be win the day.
Dr Freemantle
if he wins the Hardwick perhaps he could send him to France instead of Conduit.
Rip Van Winkle
: He gave me the impression he’s almost there when he ran in the Derby. A few weeks and a bit of sun on his back I think we will see why Murtagh chose him in the Derby. He’s more likely to run than StS and although not as god him must be a danger if he turns up.
Cima de Triomphe
put up the best 1m2f performance in winning seen so far this season when beating Conduit but he was in need of the race and was conceding 7lbs. He’s a risky bet for the Eclipse as the very shrewed Luca Cumani could send him to France if Conduit runs in the Eclipse.
Pipedreamer;
He needs to quicken of a steady to slow pace to have a chance of winning at this level. With the possibility of Conduit, Rip Van Winkle and Sea the Stars running and them all capable of going further the chance of a slow pace is about zero.
Mastercraftsman
: Superb performance over a mile and even Sea the Stars would find it hard beat him now at that trip with give in the ground.
I very much doubt if he will ever run in anything other than 1 mile races now.Crowded House
: Flattered momenterily in the Derby. Many think this could be his trip which it probably is but he needs a drop in class more.
Most likley to run? Rip Van Winkle?
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