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Just tell me when and where and I’ll be there
I would disagree, with Rip van Winkle the most predictable retiree. Coolmore don’t yet have a son of Galileo on their books, and with today’s performance likely to make a win at Group 1 level a formality for RvW (presuming he avoids The Monster), they’ll be keen to retire him at season’s end.
Yeah I recognise that but why would anybody possibly want Rip Van Winkle (unplaced in 3 Group 1s before finally being placed, let alone winning one) when New Approach is the superior racehorse (based on the current evidence).
Ballydoyle have quite a fair few problems this year, albeit good problems.
Obviously their main 3yo now for this year is Fame And Glory and they want to win the Arc with him. They’ve mentioned the ICS but will they want to take on Sea The Stars again with him, especially over the sharper trip? With him being by Montjeu, it’s going to be mighty hard for him to take on Sea The Stars over the trip and a loss would mean that he loses a fair bit of value at stud, especially when they have Dylan Thomas, High Chaparral and Galileo at stud, all of which (thereabouts) won the Derby and the ICS.
The obvious route for him would be Niel – Arc, maybe even the Breeders’ Cup Turf afterwards. This would make financial sense, since no horse has won both in the same calendar year, but then again, why would breeders want the genuine 12f Fame And Glory when all of their other core middle-distance sires (thereabouts) won Group 1s over 10f?
So the problem is that Mastercraftsman is too slow for a mile at Goodwood and Longchamp and it’s likely he’ll be beaten in the QE2 as well, despite the track suiting. So they need to run him over 10f in a Group 1 where he won’t clash with Rip or Fame.
It’s extremely complicated but I think they’ll do the following;
Fame And Glory: Juddmonte (extra 88 yards will stand him in good stead) – Arc (- BC Turf?)
Rip Van Winkle: Sussex – Irish Champion – Breeders’ Cup Classic
Mastercraftsman: Jacques le Marois – QE2 – Champion Stakes
Yeah I recognise that but why would anybody possibly want Rip Van Winkle (unplaced in 3 Group 1s before finally being placed, let alone winning one) when New Approach is the superior racehorse (based on the current evidence).
————————————————————————————————-Agreeed with there.
So the problem is that Mastercraftsman is too slow for a mile at Goodwood and Longchamp and it’s likely he’ll be beaten in the QE2 as well, despite the track suiting. So they need to run him over 10f in a Group 1 where he won’t clash with Rip or Fame.
————————————————————————————————————Nope. Many people (yourself included if I’m not mistaken) said he was lay of the century at Ascot in the St Jame’s Palace Stakes at the Royal Meeting, where he went to the front 2 out and just kept on going. Soft ground would make him near unbeatable IMHO, and only Ghannati can beat him over 1m I’d think. If he went to the Sussex Stakes, (with a fast pacemaker in there) he’d win IMO. France, with just a bit of cut in the Ground, looks perfect for him. He does need 10f though.
You: Fame And Glory: Juddmonte (extra 88 yards will stand him in good stead) – Arc (- BC Turf?)
Me: Prix Niel (Or GP De – Paris) – Arc – BC Turf or end season.
He might find the BC Turf too quick for him.
You: Rip Van Winkle: Sussex – Irish Champion – Breeders’ Cup Classic
Me: Rip Van Winkle: Juddmonte – Irish Champion – BC Classic
Only one disagreement there, and this is that 1m is too short for him, leave that to MCM.
You: Mastercraftsman: Jacques le Marois – QE2 – Champion Stakes
Me: Sussex – QE2 – BC MIle
Give him a crazy pace (Pacemakers) and he’ll be fine over 1m.
Stilvi, you said "If you had just read the plaudits you would have thought Sea The Stars had won this by ten lengths"
It’s more to do with people acknowledging the horses versatility. It was contested at a fast pace, so he had to dig deep. No horses is ever gonnae do the field by 10L in this type of race. He showed power and pace to win the guineas. He showed staying power and temprement, with pace to win the Derby. Now he has shown his ability to win a race in a distance between his two classic wins at a high tempo thoughout, set by pacemakers. The horse just cruises nicely at any distance.
The Derby was widely acknowledged as being no test of stamina – you can choose not to believe that if you want to. Effectively, he has just won another 1m2f race on his preferred fast ground and ran a length below the Derby form.
The history of racing is full of top class horses winning races by wide margins – perhaps you have forgotten the likes of Sea Bird, Mill Reef, Shergar, Troy – it is quite a long list.
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Dubai Millennium won races by wide margins, stilvi, but beat absolutely nothing in doing so – six length victories, in the grand scheme of things, mean nothing without context.
I find it astonishing that you have decided to rate the race through the runner-up and am bemused as to why you think he’s only run up to his Epsom form, rather than in excess of it. The Derby wasn’t run at what might be described as a fast pace, but Sea The Stars’s mid-race fractions were absolutely incredible and I would defy anyone to liken the event to one run over ten furlongs – it was still quicker than Ask’s Coronation after all.
I would also suggest that yesterday’s contest wasn’t anything like the majority of ten furlong races we’ll see this year. The all-round pace was electric and to finish as the front two did given the stiff Sandown finish indicates a) that both definitely stay further than ten furlongs, b) the winner stays by far the better, and c) both improved markedly on their Epsom runs given the relative position of the all-out Conduit.
The form stacks up, the time stacks up (over five seconds quicker than Tartan Bearer’s defeat of Pipedreamer) and the first two are out of nothing but the very top drawer.
There are times when form can be seriously questioned, but this isn’t one of them.
Stilvi, you said "If you had just read the plaudits you would have thought Sea The Stars had won this by ten lengths"
It’s more to do with people acknowledging the horses versatility. It was contested at a fast pace, so he had to dig deep. No horses is ever gonnae do the field by 10L in this type of race. He showed power and pace to win the guineas. He showed staying power and temprement, with pace to win the Derby. Now he has shown his ability to win a race in a distance between his two classic wins at a high tempo thoughout, set by pacemakers. The horse just cruises nicely at any distance.
The Derby was widely acknowledged as being no test of stamina – you can choose not to believe that if you want to. Effectively, he has just won another 1m2f race on his preferred fast ground and ran a length below the Derby form.
The history of racing is full of top class horses winning races by wide margins – perhaps you have forgotten the likes of Sea Bird, Mill Reef, Shergar, Troy – it is quite a long list.
You’re being far too simplistic. What has only beating RVW by 1 length got to do with anything when it’s a different track, different going, different pace and different distance ?
In heindsight the derby not having the fastest pace in the world adds to his versatility. He has won at different tempos now.
People within horse racing also say that Epsom is a tougher test than the Curragh believe it or not. Therefore his derby win is underestimated by some also.
It would be nice to be able to say Sea The Stars is poor value at 1.64 on Betfair, but he isn’t.
Won with a brilliant laziness.
Dubai Millennium won races by wide margins, stilvi, but beat absolutely nothing in doing so – six length victories, in the grand scheme of things, mean nothing without context.
I find it astonishing that you have decided to rate the race through the runner-up and am bemused as to why you think he’s only run up to his Epsom form, rather than in excess of it. The Derby wasn’t run at what might be described as a fast pace, but Sea The Stars’s mid-race fractions were absolutely incredible and I would defy anyone to liken the event to one run over ten furlongs – it was still quicker than Ask’s Coronation after all.
I would also suggest that yesterday’s contest wasn’t anything like the majority of ten furlong races we’ll see this year. The all-round pace was electric and to finish as the front two did given the stiff Sandown finish indicates a) that both definitely stay further than ten furlongs, b) the winner stays by far the better, and c) both improved markedly on their Epsom runs given the relative position of the all-out Conduit.
The form stacks up, the time stacks up (over five seconds quicker than Tartan Bearer’s defeat of Pipedreamer) and the first two are out of nothing but the very top drawer.
There are times when form can be seriously questioned, but this isn’t one of them.
Thanks for offering your thoughts on Dubai Millennium but the very short list was only really for the benefit of the poster who seemingly couldn’t relate to the idea of Group 1’s being won by wide margins.
For any race is it really so astonishing to use the run of the second as the best guide to form? Why should either of them have improved on the Derby running?
Personally, I think this was a weak Group 1. All the horses you have mentioned – Rip Van Winkle, Conduit, Tartan Bearer and Pipedreamer will be pretty much forgotten in a few years time. None are World-beaters.
You are obviously expecting Rip Van Winkle to frank the form. I certainly wouldn’t support him at short prices.
At the moment it appears Sea The Star’s claim to greatness is all about the unknown factor of how much he has in reserve at the end of his races. That is guesswork. At least we actually had some idea as to how much better Dubai Millennium was than the rivals he left trailing.
Couldn’t disagree more really – Conduit has won a BC Turf and a Classic. The runner up is thought of as a star by his all-conquering connections.
The form is rock solid in my opinion (and RP Analysis), and the winner is clearly a superstar – only runs this season have been three Group 1’s wins including two classics, over three different distances, and people still say the form is sub-standard. In my personal opinion its a touch churlish.
My personal advice is – enjoy this one, they aren’t around every twenty years.
Yup, I agree. From time to time you get genuine superstars and now is one of those times. I think we’ve been rather blessed in the past 2 years with Henrythenavigator, Sea The Stars and Zarkava. Who knows, maybe Ghanaati could add herself to that list by the end of the year.
Actually in a way I feel sorry for Rip Van Winkle. If he goes on next year to clean up the 10f Group 1s (and perhaps a couple over 8f too), he’ll always be seen as the poor man’s Sea The Stars.
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Surely a Breeders’ Cup winner is, by very its definition, something of a world beater, stilvi? And when that particular Breeders’ Cup winner has beaten Eagle Mountain (who won a Group 1 in Hong Kong) and Soldier of Fortune, and also won a St Leger, many would agree that he’s probably a fairly smart yardstick.
You’re not Richard Wilson still very much in character, are you?
The only horse in Saturday’s race that didn’t run to form was Twice Over, and given that he’s run extremely well so far this season having raced up with the pace is testament to just how quickly they went early on. In spite of that, both Sea The Stars and Rip Van Winkle had enough in reserve to pull well clear of the remainder of the field, all of whom ran to their marks (or near enough), with the former travelling well and quickening for a second time when challenged.
If that’s not the sort of performance that brings a smile to your face then you’re in for a lifetime of misery.
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Couldn’t disagree more really – Conduit has won a BC Turf and a Classic. The runner up is thought of as a star by his all-conquering connections.
The form is rock solid in my opinion (and RP Analysis), and the winner is clearly a superstar – only runs this season have been three Group 1’s wins including two classics, over three different distances, and people still say the form is sub-standard. In my personal opinion its a touch churlish.
My personal advice is – enjoy this one, they aren’t around every twenty years.
The racing post sell racing PC that’s the name of the game with them.
Everything on 4 legs who wins a few Group1 DOM for instance is the best thing since sliced bread. DOM won because the opposition was shyte an ain’t that the truth
He is a lovely looking horse and he’s very good but let’s get real here.
Sea Bird II Mill Reef Brigadier Gerard Shergar Nijinsky were Superstars. They didn’t become so by winning races by a couple of lengths. They could all quicken up and leave horses in their wake…….they were just so special and so suprior to everything else around.
Does Sea the Stars give you that impression. Ok he beat Conduit but as much as I thought he was going to be as effective over 1m2f as he was over 1m4f on reflection I don’t think he was.
So Sea the Stars beat Rip Van Winkle in excellent fashion but in real terms he has gone backwards or RVW has improved…
I’d say it’s the latter but Murtagh reckons Fame and Glory has also improved a lot since the Derby. I wonder how much closer he would get to your superstar if they meet again soon.
The bookies will even give you a price him staying unbeaten and they’re not silly. The others are catching up to him and there are others waiting in the shadows.
Very good horse but not a superstar in the true sense of the word IMO
I think Fist is being slightly unfair on Sea The Stars and his relative merits. The object of the exercise is to pass the finishing line ahead of the opposition – no matter by what margin.
He may not be as good as those aforementined greats, but as the only saying goes, you can only beat what is put in front of you – and he has done that with some authority to be honest.
I recall Pat Eddery saying that Dancing Brave was a bit of an old monkey once he hit the front ( he idled ) and as a consequence had to be ridden with a well timed run. His pre Arc race at Goodwood doesn’t count.
Nijinsky, Irish Derby excepted, never won by more than 2 or 3 lengths. The three year olds that he did beat were nothing to write home about either – and even though he was a great horse, eventually they got the better of him, as he lost his last two races.
I think that Sea The Stars would be most vunerable on soft ground, but as John Oxx won’t allow him to run on anything other than good, we will never find out whether he is or not.
NIjinsky was untried on soft ground. Brigadier Gerard won three times on the soft but was clearly not as effective on that surface as he was on good or good to firm ground. Mill Reef, for example, could trot up on any ground – firm or heavy, made no difference and Sea Bird II was equally brilliant on soft as well as good ground.
None the less, the fact that Sea The Stars will not be tested on soft ground should not lessen his worth or undermine his achievements. I reckon he will probably run in two more races before his retirement – winning both, on good ground. Hopefully the King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes will be his next port of call – followed by the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown.
I doubt very much if John Oxx will run him in the Arc.
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Had you backed Sea The Stars on Saturday, Fist, and not Conduit, I can almost guarantee that you’d be singing a very different tune. And what happened to your assertion that Rip Van Winkle would continue to improve to become the superstar Ballydoyle have been touting him as? Why has that progression suddenly stopped?
Class is relative, and just because the likes of Mill Reef were seemingly exceptional wide-margin winners doesn’t detract from the achievements of Sea The Stars (or any other successful racehorse). The fact is any horse over the last ten years – why not mention Rock of Gibraltar as a superstar, he won seven Group 1s on the bounce to Mill Reef’s six and did so with the minimum of fuss (generally) – could have won a top class race by a wide margin and there would have been plenty who would go out of their way to tell everyone why it wasn’t really that good (Hawk Wing’s Lockinge being an obvious example).
Racing went through a period of ten years in the late sixties and early seventies when there were top class animals at every turn – god forbid anything should come along to rival those magical days.
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I would have made a lot less money had I backed Sea the Stars so let’s leave that out of it.
Rip Van Winkle may have or may have not improved but let’s not kid ourselves here he failed to go through with what looked like a winning run.
Granted Sea the Stars quickened a bit but you lot are making the classic mistake here. You are calling a horse a champion in the middle of the season. Something Reg Griffin pointed out along time ago is that comes at the end of the season when all the cards are on the table.
So far the only horse of proven quality he has beaten is Conduit and as he may or may not have been suited by the distance. Him aside what if Fame and Glory and Rip Van Winkle never win another race between them?
The handicapper has put him on a par with Nashwan who absolutely destroyed Indian Skimmer a top class 1m2f horse in the Eclipse then won the King George 3 weeks later. For me he was a much better and more versatlie horse than Sea the Stars yet he is not highly regarded in the Hall of Fame as such.
John Oxx will not run Sea the Stars in the Arc he won’t take Conduit on again in the King George because he fears he has a very good chance of not getting the trip or getting beat.
Don’t get me wrong I like the horses but forn Pete’s sake Superstar? You must be joking. if that had been Dancing Brave or the Brigadier instead of Rip Van Winkle coming at him what do you think would have happened?
Call him very good, call him a fabulous horse but ffs keep words like Great! and Superstar! for horses that have truly earned it.
PS as far as your little snipe about those magical days I call a spade a spade…….did I or did I not say Zarkava was the best I had seen since Sea Bird II and did I not shout from the rooftops Kauto Star was the best chaser I had seen in 40 years about 2 years ago? Some people might be stuck in a time zone mate but accusing me of it your way off the mark.
I’m amazed anyone can crab the form of this horse – the history books show how difficult it is to find a horse with the speed, stamina, durability, versatility, and class, to win the Guineas, Derby and Eclipse.
Frankly, i think the form of all three races looks very solid and have been franked all over the shop.
I’m also puzzled as to why you’d think John Oxx would be frightened of Conduit over 1m4f in the King George Fist – sounds a bit far fetched to me.
Wasn’t Nashwan rather underrated at the time [and probably still is] for all of his achievements.
Wasn’t Nashwan rather underrated at the time [and probably still is] for all of his achievements.
Yes, he was, although Willie Carson still rates him the best middle distance horse he rode ( above Troy ) and maintains that he did not show his true form against Cacoethes in the King George.
Nashwan obviously wasn’t the same horse following the Ascot race and was subsequently beaten in the Prix Niel (finishing third ), at which point Dick Hern decided that he would miss the Arc.
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