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I agree, Jac.
Although “possible” Saxon Warrior will be better at this trip, it’s nowhere near a given. Are people thinking he didn’t stay just because of connections post-race excuses? Did Saxon Warrior really fail to stay in the two Derbys? Reviewing the races several times there’s no real reason to suggest he failed for stamina. Considering didn’t get the best of runs at Epsom – not able to get out when he wanted – didn’t do too badly to come home roughly only a second inferior to the winner. Not losing any more ground in the closing stages. However, Roaring Lion actually travelled better than the Guineas winner! If any horse didn’t stay the Derby trip it was Roaring Lion, although must be said he’s come there before looking the winner on;y to be seemingly outstayed or out-battled. Just possible Saxon Warrior was “outstayed” rather than “didn’t stay”, but there are other viable reasons. If Saxon Warrior didn’t act at Epsom then why didn’t he do better at the Curragh? Didn’t travel any better than winner Latrobe there either; indeed closest at the finish. Therefore wasn’t weakening in the closing stages like most non-stayers do. Had a good spot tracking Rostropovich and Latrobe virtually throughout in a race not run at anththing like a strong pace, so the run of the race should’ve suited better; ie how the race was run is not a viable reason. Was it the course in the English version and ground in the Irish? If so it’ll be too firm for him at Sandown too (has an action not ideal for a firmish surface). Or has Saxon Warrior just been not at his best the last two starts – just not in A1 condition? If so it’s asking a lot for a return to form after just a week off. Is it his temperament that’s made the difference? Horses don’t behave the same every time. Although settled well enough in the prelims at Newmarket has been on his toes – more nervy – on two subsequent starts, noticably sweating last time out too.
I’ve backed Roaring Lion for the win, Hawkbill each way with a saver on Forest Ranger.
Value Is EverythingIt’s a shame to see Masar out. I was against him and was gonna back Roaring Lion at around 9/4. Seeing him now 13/8 because of the absence of Masar has made this a non betting race for me.
Though I’ve put Saxon in a few multiples for some interest at 2/1.
Masar out, is a massive touch for me as it works out with my bets on Saxon. My 5-1 & 9-2 bets are ante post rules, I’m sure I’ll get whacked R4 on the 4-1 bet and the double.
But as things stand, a right result for me.
My opinion on it Ginge is this. After the 2000, Saxons whole training regime will have changed I’ll bet you. They are not stupid by any means, despite the PR bluster, you can bet your last £1 that team Coolmore would have had doubts about him actually staying properly, after that 2000 performance. (But they HAVE to go for the Derby). To go up half a mile in trip, after showing absolutely electric speed over 1m… I’ll bet he was trained completely different, with calmness in mind. Instead of pressing the button after 4-5f like in the 2000, Saxon was being asked to have that button pressed after 10f. Both Roaring Lion & Saxon Warrior may just about stay 1m4f, but neither of them can show their very best at that trip. Neither could carry the speed/brilliance that far. Poor Saxon has been asked to do it twice now. Both runs can be scratched from my mind. I mean, I would not have backed him with your money for either race.
After the 2000, it was where and when will Saxon be running over 1m2f.
Today is the day, I wish he’d not run in the Irish, but then would I be sitting on 5-1 or 9-2? No I would not. Straight here from the 2000, he’s long odds on. Straight here after the Derby, he’d have still been fav today. O’Brien is a genius, if anyone can get this horse to ‘show up’ today, it’s him. The button gets pressed after 7f today, and I am sure he’ll carry his brilliance that far.
If they all show their very best at the trip, which I can see happening today, the big horse will smash them up.
It’s going to be a great race between Sax & RL today I think.
Too many ifs and buts with Saxon Warrior as discussed in great detail above by Ginge and Nausered and if he doesn’t do it today then all his options must be blown.
Hawkbill is such a genuine horse and if he can keep it together before the race then he will give his all.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Good luck with Hawkbill Jac.
Thinking about it, Sandown could also be a big problem for Roaring Lion today… A right hand bend, then the home straight, big wide open spaces to his left.
If he’s going to drift left again, like he’s shown a propensity for before, it will be at Sandown.
A huge no-bet race for me. Roaring Lion looks class and this trip/surface is ideal but his tendency to drift left is a big worry here. Saxon Warrior should like this but might not be over Irish exertions. The rest don’t look good enough. Just watch and enjoy for me. Best of luck to all you getting involved though.
Happily, for me. I think she’s a top class filly who has been poorly campaigned. I think she would have won The Oaks and will eventually be better over 12 furlongs. She ran a great race LTO when getting no luck whatsoever, and that looks quite a good Diane.
Yeeeeeeeeeeee haaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
I had a big win double Tigre De Tere & Making Miracles at 8’s & 11-2.
I’ve tried Cliffs of Moher. He might have done well in this last year if he hadn’t been hampered.
I had a big win double Tigre De Tere & Making Miracles at 8’s & 11-2.
Nice one Nausered
Thanks G
As I said to you on the Golden Boot thread, I’ve been shocking recently with the horses. My only bets today were on those two, apart from my Saxon bets placed during the week. 2 x £100 singles and a £50 win double paid very handsomely.
A Saxon win, then a Harry Kane brace, will make it the most perfect of Saturdays.
Thanks again G, be lucky
Come what may , thankfully for us who backed Roaring Lion bet365 operate the first past the post rule .
Worthy winner .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
You’re safe enough anyway Himself, they wont turn it around although Murphy
will get his fingers wrapped. Well done all on the lion What a race
Well done all who backed the Lion.
Simply the best Still in the Stewards 3 bumps and one made the difference says Aiden’s boy talking the talk this is a convincing argument.
Please let him keep it we’ve seen much worse.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Well done Nausered
, I’m still searching for my purple patch but nothing lost as I had a saver on Roaring Lion first last the post with Paddy Power.I hate Stewards Enquiries especially in big races, both horses ran the race of their lives and the Lion deserves to keep this.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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