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He’s been confirmed a runner today. They have definitely ballsed up Saxon Warriors campaign thus far. I agree Ginge, it smacks of desperation. I was very vocal on the derby thread, that I did not think he would act at Epsom, or stay 1m4f well enough to show his brilliance. The speed he showed in the 2000 was electric. They should have pulled up stumps, and headed straight here, not gone again for the Irish derby. They got it wrong with this one. I mean, look at the speed he showed through 4-7f in the 2000… The horse would have to be the best ever seen to be able to carry that speed over 1m4f/1m6f. It was never going to happen to my eyes.
But the fact remains in my mind, he’s the best 3yo over a mile (it’s not the horses fault he’s been sent to the wrong targets), and I think he’ll be able to show that speed over 1m2f too. Masar is a strong favourite to beat him, but the value here is undoubtably Saxon at 4-1. I’ve snapped up some 5’s & some 9-2, but 4’s is still a good price here IMO.
Over 1m2f at Sandown… This is going to be a whole different ball game.
In fact, I’ve just convinced myself to go in again at 4-1.
If you scratch off the two 1m4f runs, is he a 4-1 shot here? He’s long odds on. This horse has to my eyes shown brilliance. He could not show that brilliance over 1m4f, it was just to far to carry that speed. After backing him in the 2000, I wanted to lay him for the derby, I sat out the Irish.
Saturday is the day to get involved again with Saxon for me, and at those prices… He’s a 5* bet in my humble opinion. The danger, is that they have ruined him with those two 1m4f runs in quick succession. But at the prices, it’s a big no brainer for me.
Roaring Lion is the biggest danger in my eyes. But I think the big horse will show that brilliance again on Saturday.
Sorely tempted myself Nausered, but on him for York so hope he wins for you.
I remember watching Donnacha’s interview straight after the Guineas. It only lasted 2 minutes but in that time he mentioned SW as “going to be a great 10F horse” not once but three times. Really strange considering he was a Triple Crown horse, totally put me off him for the Derby that did.
Get involved I’d say Botchy! I just backed him at 17-2 for York, Ladbrokes boosted from 8’s. He’ll be short for York, after sluicing up on Sat.
Although looking just now he’s blue across the board, and into 3’s and 7-2 now. Corals still showing 4’s, but that will be for £2.65 max bet I’d imagine!
£20 win double Saxon Warrior in Eclipse & for Juddmonte at York has been added too. 18-5 & 17-2.
Agree Nausered, sadly i missed the prices.
I priced him up around 7/2 and had Masar a fair bit bigger than he already is.
i reckon there will be supporter for Roaring Lion and Saxon….
Saxon to me will be better at this trip, i guess the quick turnaround is the only worry.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Think Roaring Lion might well turn the tables on Masar, with Hawkbill likely to make the running RL will get the strong pace he needs and be dropped in out the back like he was in the Dante and come late and fast.
Said on other threads that the more I watch the 2000g the more I think Saxon Warrior needs to be dropped back to a mile (he certainly wasn’t going to win the Irish Derby at 10F but I guess they need a 10F win on his cv for breeding purposes) but along with the quick turn around from Ireland and the stable jockey preferring to go to the US to ride it doesn’t inspire much confidence.
It isn’t what I would call a vintage renewal of the race so if the 3 yr olds can’t win this it would be a large mark against them as a group.
Roaring lion for me, cracking bet at 18/5, over this trip and ground i cant see him being beaten. Not suited by the guineas straight eight and didnt quite get home over the derby trip on the ground. Best is surely yet to come.
Couldnt back saxon warrior on any basis, but i do think he wont be THAT far away, hes more likely to win at 10f than 12f anyway, obviously a solid group 1 miler. Not sure why there so desperate for him to win over further, hed likely mop up the mile races…
Roaring Lion for me too at the prices. Trip is perfect for him, ground will suit plus the race should be run to suit also.
I don’t think we’ve seen the best of RL yet, hopefully we will come Saturday.
Another Roaring Lion supporter here. Closing 3F in the Dante were lightning, likes the fast ground and 10F looks perfect.
Hopeful that he will be pushed in the morning to 9/2-4/1 since he’s been behind Masar every run between them.
Masar will be fit and fresh as a daisy . He holds all the aces and I think it will be pretty straightforward for the Derby winner .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I know that Happily (8/1) on the face of it has been disappointing, but I
think that potentially she has what it takes to win this. Her form last year would give
her every chance, she beat Olmedo and Masar fair and square in the Grand Criterium
although admittedly the wheels came off the barrow after that in the Breeders Cup Juvenile
Fillies Turf where she found no room. She came back out this year in the 1000 Guineas where
I don’t think she really handled the dip but ran on well for 3rd. I found the 1000 Guineas
a bit of a strange race anyway, there was a distinct lack of pace and a wall of horses were
still there in the final furlong, it became a bit of a sprint. Again it could be said she
didn’t perform in the Irish 1000 Guineas, where she was beaten by Alpha Centauri, but that
one went on to smash the course record next time out in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot so it
wasn’t such a bad run. I’ve watched the Prix Diane (her last race) a few times now. Moore had
a nice spot behind the front three, and it looked like he had to take a pull about half way,
I’m not sure why, and she quickly went back to about 8th. It was a really tough race and she
had to fight her way through when she was both squeezed and bumped. Moore had to use her pace
to switch through to the rail where she at last had room. She ran on well enough for 4th,
although there was only 1/2 length between the 4. I think Moore would have rather pulled the
trigger a tad later than he had to at a crucial time in the race. I think she has become the
forgotten horse in the race, but I think there are sound reasons for thinking she can give a
good account of herself. I think the 8/1 is very good value.I’ve just spotted that Lingfield, that’s a bit of a blow. I took the 8/1 for Happily
with Bet365 at 17.16. Obviously that’s gone now and I’ll be bumped with a rule 4.
She’s best priced 5/1 now, but I think she’s still good value at those odds with the
favourite gone.I’ve always been a Roaring Lion supporter ever since I first saw him at Newmarket as a 2yo and will be very happy if he wins.
However Hawkbill loves bowling along in front and given an easy lead he will be very hard to peg back and will fight hard to keep his position.
So I’ve had a win bet on Roaring Lion but my main bet is for Hawkbill to win this from the front and not a bad price
bearing in mind that he has beaten Poet’s Word.HAWKBILL EW .. 16/1
Saver on ..
Roaring Lion … WIN
2/1Good luck..really looking forward to this race…Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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