Conversion formula – ratings to odds

[LoneWolf]

I am looking for an MS Excel-based formula which converts ratings to prices using weight carried as a factor.

As a reference, one point on my ratings is equal to a length.

Can anyone point me in the right direction?

Thanks.

[Nathan Hughes]

Are you the real Lone Wolf? ie Graeme the Donkey, Goldikova, Superman or a new Lone Wolf?………..

Good luck with your search, there is a few cleverdicks on here who should be able to point you in the right direction but they are only on here sparingly so you might have to be a little patient.

Blackbeard to conquer the World

[el249]

This formula would consist of an "IF" and a "THEN" command, possibly with some other variables. I’m at work at the mo (I do geeky stuff in an office ) so I’ve got plenty of time to rustle you one up.

To make sure I get the right idea though, give me a couple of examples?

I.e

Rating = 108
Highest weight in race by = 8lb (or however you want to determine the weight)

And any further details you require.

[LoneWolf]

Forgive me as I flunked mathematics at school but I will try to visualise.

Here’s an example of a race I did from Sha Tin last Sunday:

#1 (Predicted Rating: 92.1 – Weight Carried: 127 lbs)
#2 (Predicted Rating: 94.8 – Weight Carried: 129 lbs)
#3 (Predicted Rating: 96.0 – Weight Carried: 132 lbs)
#4 (Predicted Rating: 98.1 – Weight Carried: 125 lbs)
#5 (Predicted Rating: 91.8 – Weight Carried: 132 lbs)
#6 (Predicted Rating: 93.7 – Weight Carried: 131 lbs)
#7 (Predicted Rating: 95.4 – Weight Carried: 130 lbs)
#8 (Predicted Rating: 97.2 – Weight Carried: 129 lbs)
#9 (Predicted Rating: 94.1 – Weight Carried: 128 lbs)
#10 (Predicted Rating: 94.8 – Weight Carried: 127 lbs)
#11 (Predicted Rating: 94.9 – Weight Carried: 122 lbs)
#12 (Predicted Rating: 94.9 – Weight Carried: 119 lbs)
#13 (Predicted Rating: 94.4 – Weight Carried: 117 lbs)
#14 (Predicted Rating: 94.2 – Weight Carried: 113 lbs)

One point being equal to one length.

And that is all. I don’t require "back at X" or "lay at X" guidelines, merely the recommended price based on these two factors.

I understand that parameters are also used to alter aggression (?) but I am really looking for a rather simple system as a starting point.

Nathan, I am not who you are speaking of. In actual fact I did go by a moniker ‘Deers’ or something to that effect but I cannot for the life of me find the details. If this username is too similar to another regular on here I can adjust my username if need be.

[Nathan Hughes]

This is the other LoneWolf……………http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/profiles/lone-wolf-u67593

Welcome to the forum by the way hope you find your formula and it works out for you.

Blackbeard to conquer the World

[el249]

Where are you getting the ‘one point equal to one length’ from? Is that from how far beaten they were in the previous race?.. Forgive me if it’s obvious, I fail to see how you would like that to be calculated.

[MDeering]

Okay, I have found my old moniker!

The predicted rating I give each runner is based on their past form. I assign a rating with their career peak as the benchmark, working back based on their current level of performance.

I don’t know how it could be confusing but then again I have never been a staunch numbers and ratings man in the past.

If it is far too simplistic to turn the ratings into prices then leave it be – I can continue on my merry way!

[dave jay]

If your interested in doing this in Excel use a Montecarlo Simulation tool, you can find them on the internet.

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