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Bank = £328.46
23 rd June<br> Worcs 4.30 Glengarra lost<br> Worcs 3.00 Smiths Landing won1/1<br> Kempton 7.00 Kind won 11/4<br> Bath 7.15 Brazilian Terrace lost<br> Salisbury 3.10 Selebela lost<br> Salisbury 2.40 Red Top lost<br> Kempton 6.30 Maids Causeway won 2/5<br>Bank = £329.96
24th June<br> Hamilton 8.05 Celtic Heroine lost<br> Thirsk 4.00 Westcourt Dream lost<br> Thirsk 4.30 Tropical Storm lost<br> Salisbury 4.40 Double Aspect Won 4/7
Bank = £305.67
Seem to be suffering from a bit of 2nd itus here.
:(
25th June Newc 9.25 Icenaslice won 11/2<br> Folks 4.00 Swinbrook won 2/9<br> Market Rasen 3.10 Liberty Seeker won 4/1
Bank = £ 402.89
26 th June<br> Newcastle 3.30 Crystal Curling lost<br> Newmarket 2.40 Kschessinka lost<br>Bank = £ 382.89
28 th June<br> Windsor 8.40 Classic Vision lost<br> Pont 3.15 Complication lost<br> Windsor 7.40 Red Romeo won 13/8<br> Windsor 8.10 Barking Mad lost<br> Pontefract 4.15 Posteritas won 2/1
Bank = £ 389.14
<br>
(Edited by JAR at 9:38 pm on June 28, 2004)
29th June<br> Hamilton 2.50 Munaawashat lost<br> Brighton 3.30 Cherubim Won 7/2<br> Brighton 4.00 Salut Saint Cloud lost<br> Brighton 4.30 Swift Sailing lost<br>Bank = £394.14
30th June<br> Perth 3.50 Monty’s Quest Won 11/2<br> Perth 2.20 Muckle Flugga lost
Bank = £439.14
Things are looking up, the starting bank was £250 it is<br>now at £439.14 <br>:)
That is £189 profit to £10 level stakes, operating this method from 1st June.<br>Early days yet as the methods have only been running for <br>one month.
(Edited by JAR at 9:27 pm on June 30, 2004)<br>
(Edited by JAR at 9:33 pm on June 30, 2004)
1st July<br>      Perth   4.40   Verchoyles lad   lost<br>      Yarm   4.00   Carrowdore     lost<br>      Yarm   4.30   Asaleeb       won 1/16<br>      Hayd   3.20   Bright Moll     won  5/4<br>      Epsom  6.25   Cristoforo      won  8/11<br>      Newb   8.40   Massif Centrale  won  2/7
Bank = £ 452.37
2nd July<br>      South   3.00   Taakid        Lost<br>      Warw    5.30   Trusted Mole  Lost<br>      Warw    5.00   Godsend     Won 4/6<br>      Sandown  4.50   Flotta       Lost
Bank = £ 429.03
3rd July<br>      Leics  3.05   Dr Thong   Won 5/1<br>      Hayd  3.35   Quito      Won 7/4<br>      Hayd  1.50   Sahool     lost
Bank = £ 486.53<br>5th July<br>       Windsor  8.05  Street Life      lost<br>       Ripon    7.50  Man at Arms    lost<br>       Ripon    7.20  Castelletto     won 8/15<br>       Bath     3.00  Velvet Waters   won 7/2<br>       Bath     3.30   Todlea         lost  <br>       Bath     4.00   Powerful  Parish  lost
Bank = £ 496.86
6th July<br>       Pontefract     4.55    Cyclonic Storm  lost<br>       Newmarket     4.05     Dawn Surprise lost<br>Bank = £ 476.86
7th July<br>       Newmarket   2.20   Motive       lost<br>       Newmarket   2.55    Sulamani    lost<br>       Catterick     5.20    Twilight Years lost
Bank = £ 446.86<br>8th July<br>        Folks 5.00      Elusive Dream won 4/6<br>        Folks 5.30      Jade Star     lost<br>        Donc  9.10      Yorkshire Blue  abandoned<br>Bank = £ 443.46
9th July<br>        <br>        Chep  8.05  A One          lost<br>        York  2.35  Alchemist Master  lost
       Chester 9.20     Gavroche  *  Won 10/3<br>                    Magic String  *
As well as single win £10 level stakes wagers I’ve decided to add the occasional bet on 2 horses in the same race.  In this case the stake will always be £25 apportioned between the two  horses on a level stakes basis.  Such horses will have a "*" after their name.
<br> Bank = £ 459.12
10 th July<br>        Chester  5.15  Mallard    lost<br>        Chester  4.45  Herne Bay lost<br> Bank = £ 439.12
13 th July<br>        Brighton  3.00  General Nuisance lost<br>        Brighton  4.00  Temper Tantrum  lost<br>Bank = £419.12
14th July<br>       Catterick  2.30  Lamh Eile won 1/1<br>Bank = £429.12
(Edited by JAR at 9:52 pm on July 9, 2004)
<br>(Edited by JAR at 12:13 pm on July 10, 2004)
<br>(Edited by JAR at 6:05 pm on July 10, 2004)
<br>(Edited by JAR at 10:08 am on July 13, 2004)
<br>(Edited by JAR at 9:54 am on July 14, 2004)<br>
(Edited by JAR at 8:32 pm on July 14, 2004)
Bank at 14th July = £429.12
15th July<br>    Epsom      7.55   Flying Spirit    won 10/3<br>    Hamilton    2.50   Flying Bantam  lost<br>    Hamilton    3.20   Mister Monet  won 4/7<br>    Leics       3.10   St Pancras     lost
Bank = £ 448.16
16th July<br>  Newmarket 6.30  Westmoreland Road  lost<br>  Carlisle    3.45  Smith n Allan Oils    lost<br>  Hamilton   7.20  Bijou Dan          lost<br>  Hamilton   8.20  Blackheath        won 8/1
Bank = £498.16
17th July<br>  Newmarket 4.30  Balkan Knight *<br>                Lahob *<br>  Newbury   1.50    Magistretti<br>  Haydock   6.40    Midnight Tycoon<br>  Ripon     3.15    Olivia Rose<br>  Lingfield   8.25    Burgundy<br>  Newbury   5.10    Masked
<br>
(Edited by JAR at 10:52 am on July 17, 2004)
I’ve not been able to post selections for a while as my computer short circuited itself into a mass of melting wires with a loud bang and a strong burning smell.
<br>With my system the bank now stands at £352.74 and hopefully I will be able to start posting results again tomorrow.
5th August
Yarmouth 4.30  Baradore Won 5/2<br>Chepstow 5.20 Oh so Rosie lost<br>Chepstow 2.20 Tom Bell lost
Bank = £357.74
<br>
(Edited by JAR at 8:31 pm on Aug. 5, 2004)
I have decided to end this thread as at the moment I do not have regular daily access to a computer. I shall still post on odds days and look in whenever I can.
I am still not sure if a computer program can make a profit from racing selections.<br>I have tried several programs and they all seem to have purple patches when they achieve a strike rate of 33% and make a small profit. But this soon goes back to the bookmaker as soon as a spell of unsettled weather occurs or the form of horses goes haywire for any reason. :) <br>It seems to me that most of the time you can get winners based on form figures but then there is no value.<br>Or else there are value bets but the horse does not win.<br>The big deception is that some bets that look like value win by pure accident in this way punters can be deceived into looking for value in horses that will really not win.
JAR,
I have enjoyed following your thread and exchanging comments and ideas. I think a lot of the computer systems at the budget end will find it difficult to make a consistent profit. If I ever develop such a program, I will either keep it to myself, or make sure I sell it for a high price.
For those computer systems based on a database, at least you can check back the previous years to see if the system works. I’m sure I read in one of Nick Mordin’s books that systems only work for so long, and by the time you spot a trend, the betting market has already moved to cover it. It could be that a minor alteration of the system could still return a profit.
Keep the faith, and find a new angle.<br>
Thanks for that LookingforaWinner I certainly keep looking for new ways of extracting a profit from horse races. I am currently trying to figure out a staking plan for use when two horses are picked in a race. As I feel that computer methods are quite good at picking the top two horses in a race but no so good at predicting the top horse.
A method I am using at the moment.<br>Look for a race where all the horses have wins in their career, usually prize money more than £7000.<br>I stick to fairly small races of 6 to 14 runners.
To the first 8 horses in the SP forecast I calculate a rough ability rating.<br>That is, Total prize money in hundreds divided by wins.
I then rate the top 4 horses on ability if the field is 9 or fewer runners or the top 5 horses on ability if 10 or more horses are running,  using a computer program. <br>The top rated, on the computer program, is a bet when it has odds longer than evens.  If the field has more than 11 runners I often bet on the top two rated "dutching " the horses.<br>:)
(Edited by JAR at 1:20 pm on Dec. 23, 2004)<br>
(Edited by JAR at 1:21 pm on Dec. 23, 2004)
Blimey John, thought you must have died, or something .. :biggrin:
Best of luck with the new system.
Thanks Dave<br>Resurrection is a wonderful thing.<br>:biggrin: <br>But it was my computer that died now I have a new one<br>:biggrin:
Here is a little system.<br>My newspaper gives 4 NAP selections each day.
To each NAP horse’s race placing I apply the following points:
3rd race ago      Prev Race      Latest race<br>Win     3 pts       6 pts          9 pts<br>Second  2          3             6<br>Third    1          2             3<br>Fourth   0          1             2
C (course win) = 1 point   <br>   D (distance win) = 2 points
If non-handicap in top 3 of newspaper form 4 points<br>If a handicap in top 5 of race weights ……… 4 points
The two NAPS that score the most points are then chosen for a bet.
The stake is divided between these two horses so that if either wins a profit is made.<br>I use a small computer program to do all this to speed it up.<br>In this way I hope to be on the 2 best NAP selections of my daily newspaper.
<br>(Edited by JAR at 1:14 pm on Dec. 27, 2004)<br>
(Edited by JAR at 1:16 pm on Dec. 27, 2004)
JAR,
Before posting your system, have you had any prior success?<br>Do you have to enter all the details into your program, or is it based on a database of race results and declarations?
Best of luck!<br>
Hi Lookingforawinner
All the methods that I used are based on My Daily Newspaper plus the online Racing Post racecards and form summaries. I pay as little as possible for information.
I am currently trying out 2 systems: one involves dutching horses in selected races selected by a computer program, and one involves selecting certain experts NAPS after applying various filters.
I write small computer programs to work out my system calculations simply for amusement and to keep my hand in at creative computer programming.  I am not a professional programmer, they mostly spend hours looking for bugs in a program. ÂÂÂ
I cannot really give others advice but I have had some prior success mostly in the summer months when the weather is fine and settled.  <br>This Racing Forum ran a competition a little while ago in which one of my systems came second only beaten by a laying system. Mine was a bet to win system.
I own several books on betting including the Nick Mordin,  Alan Potts, Patrick Killgallon, David Duncan and Tom  Ainslie books.  I use ideas from these books and my own experience to devise my systems.
Any system that I devise I operate for months and keep a simple database, just basic details such as type of race, SP forecast , horse form figures, experts rating, placings and how it performed. I find that my systems fall into two camps: they either work very well for a short while and then "bomb" with a long losing run or else they are pretty consistent in the long run but only break even or make a very very small profit much less than I would get if I left the money in a building society account.
Most of the time my past records show that I cannot better the tips of my daily newspaper tipsters no matter what system I devise. Those guys really know their stuff.
I try not to spend too much time on horse racing as I find it can become addictive and many hours are wasted or enjoyed depending on your point of view,  but are not financially profitable.  I only wish these hours were financially profitable.
I think in recent years with the increase in handicap races, and wetter weather,  horse races have become more unpredictable simply using the information that is available in daily newspapers or on the internet.
When it is clear a horse should win a race, everyone knows, so their is no value in the price.
I also find that I need to take a break from horse racing  now and then.  I try to keep my interest in horses as only one of several hobbies for fun and to keep it non addictive.
In the past I have used high street bookmakers. At the moment I am considering trying befair or something online.<br>I am not sure how to "dutch" horses in the same race on befair or even if it is profitable to do so. This is the way to bet that I am considering at the moment.
Just trying out an idea at the moment that seems to work with computer program selection methods.
Go to the Analyser box in the Daily Express newspaper and rate only races listed as " Best Race for Favourites" that have forecast favourites at longer odds than evens and at least 4 race placings for each horse in the first six of the SP forecast.<br>:)
I’ve just finished a small run of wagers to compare selection methods.<br>I bet on 65 races using the following five methods:
A Massey top rated<br>My daily paper tipster selections<br>A national paper internet tipster selections<br>A commercial computer program<br>The fineform formulae top rated.
Results were as follows<br>A Massey = 11 wins 53 lost<br>Daily Paper = 15 wins 50 lost<br>Internet = 13 wins 52 lost<br>Computer program = 8 wins 57 lost<br>Fineform top rated = 17 wins 48 lost
The computer program picked horses at much higher odds but still had a lower return on investment than the other programs.<br>The other programs all picked horses at approximately the same average odds.<br>The quickest and easiest to use Fineform method produced the most profit from this sample.
Although this sample is too small yet for the results to be significant, I was surprised that fineform beat all including major newspaper tipsters selections and a commercial computer program.
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