Composite Ratings

[Artemis]

Hi Dave,

Yes, I allowed for 5% commission by adjusting the Betfair SP returns.

If the Betfair SP is given on the site as, say, 3.0, that means the commission payable would be 5% of the winnings (2.0), so the adjusted Betfair SP was given as 2.90(1.90 winnings + 1.00 stake).

I’ve been doing a bit more with the composite ratings and I’ll be running another trial in the next few weeks.

[dave jay]

Thanks for the info, I’m looking forward to the next trial.

[Artemis]

I made a change to the composite ratings formula at the start of the week to allow for the likely improvement of lightly raced horses.

Horses who have raced only once Add 6pts
Horses who have raced twice Add 4pts
Horses who have raced three times Add 2pts

This seems fair enough and reflects the bare minimum improvement likely for such horses. In reality, it is likely to be more.

I’ve checked the top-rated(including joint-top) for the Goodwood meeting.

There were 44 bets and 9 winners (1/2, 5/1,4/11,8/15,5/1,10/3, 2/1, 5/2 and 7/1) returning an SP loss of £8.78 at SP to a £1 level stake. Betfair SPs were only available up to Thursday, so I am unable to compare returns with SP.

The above loss of about 19% was much better than I did with my own bets which use the composite ratings as a base to which I add additional points, and then look for ‘value’ odds.

The Betfair SPs are now updated. The loss using these returns was £5.32, 12% on stakes[/color:2hf2wt4j]

[Artemis]

I’ll be keeping a record of how these composite ratings perform over the next few weeks for ALL races, rather than the more selective races with a top-rated RPR of 90+.

I won’t have the time to list the horses – I don’t think anyone is particularly interested anyway – it’s just the totals for each day and the profit and loss using Betfair SP, SP and Tote.

I’ve just about convinced myself that this very quick method of making selections can do as well, if not better, than the more complex method I have been using.

If anyone wants to review the simple method, the rules are at the beginning of the thread.(edited and updated to include extra points for lightly raced horses).

Due to holidays, days out etc., I cannot do every day, so perhaps someone else might fill the gaps. I will announce in advance, those days when I’m unable to work out the selections and totals.

Might be interesting.

[Artemis]

Thursday 7 August

36 races 44 selections(includes jt top-rated) 1 NR 18 winners

3/1, 6/5, 7/4, 3/1, 2/1, 2/1, 5/6, 10/11, 8/15, 3/1, 3/1, 9/4, 6/1, 3/1, 2/1, 6/1
5/2, 4/6.

Betfair SP +22.67
SP +18.64
Tote +17.80

[Artemis]

Friday 8 August

32 races 38 selections 1 NR 5 winners

11/8, 5/2, 10/3, 10/11, 4/1.

Betfair SP -19.47
SP -19.89
Tote -22.60

Totals

68 races 82 selections 2 NRs 23 winners

Betfair SP +3.20
SP -1.25
Tote -4.80

[Artemis]

Saturday 9 August

40 races 49 selections 5 NRs 14 winners

3/1, 16/1, 10/11, 1/1, 7/2, 4/1, 2/1, 7/2,11/10, 7/2, 3/1, 7/2, 3/1, 9/4.

Betfair SP +28.30
SP +20.26
Tote +21.90

Totals

108 races 131 selections 7 NRs 37 winners

Betfair SP +31.50
SP +19.01
Tote +17.10

SP favourites, same races

109 races 40 winners +9.64

[Artemis]

Sunday 10 August

21 races 25 selections 1 NR 6 winners

11/4, 9/2, 2/1, 9/4, 11/4, 4/1.

Betfair SP +1.40
SP +0.25
Tote -0.90

SP favs
21 races 6 winners +1.00

Totals

129 races 156 selections 8 NRs 43 winners

Betfair SP +32.90
SP +19.26
Tote +16.20

SP favs (same races)

130 races 46 winners +10.64

[dave jay]

Well done Artemis .. the BF SP is standing out a mile here, its the first comparison I’ve seen with SP anywhere.

[Artemis]

Monday 11 August

24 races 29 selections 2 NRs 7 winners

14/1, 4/1, 6/1, 5/6, 13/8, 7/2, 4/11.

Betfair SP +14.47
SP +10.32
Tote +9.00

SP favs

24 races 5 winners -10.93

Totals
153 races 185 selections 10 NRs 50 winners

Betfair SP +47.37
SP +29.58
Tote +25.20

SP favs(same races)

154 races 51 winners -0.29

I’m away tomorrow, but I should be able to update on Thursday or Friday.

Dave,

Betfair SPs are shown on the Betfair website(results pages) alongside SPs for comparison purposes. They are (as you might expect) much better value than SP, BUT you have to bear in mind that they are only available to telephone and internet clients and are restricted to SINGLES.

Betting Offices cannot compete with these odds, but there is no reason why on line/telephone punters of rival bookmakers cannot be offered similar odds. There might be problems with hedging causing market distortions if you try to incorporate multiples.

[dave jay]

I haven’t had a bet since the new SP system came and the sheer amount of racing became too much to keep up with.This Betfair SP has made me have a rethink. I only bet in singles anyway.

I suppose betfair simply return a 100% book and then deduct commission from the winner, no brainer for them really.

[Aragorn]

Really interesting work Artemis.

I have had one bet in the last 6 months at SP with willy hills due to not being able to get access to the internet (Paco Boy at goodwood i’m glad to say) and this has only added to my reticence.

Would you say that removing the RPR ceiling has had a positive effect on profitability? Certainly looks that way to my untrained eye.

[Artemis]

Aragorn,

Yes, I think so, although you probably need another week or so to be sure.
The results have been with the punters over the last few days and I would expect profits on these composite ratings selections to level off to a more realistic figure as time goes on. When I reach a sample of around 700 races, I think you can say whether this idea is worth pursuing and which ratings levels are the most profitable. I do have fairly detailed records of the selections, but it would take too much time to put them on the thread.

It’s often been mentioned on here that the class of race doesn’t have much effect on profitability. The reason I have always preferred the best races is that they are a manageable number in comparison to all races, clearly unmanageable for any detailed study. Many people have done well by sticking to lower class races and avoiding the top races.

[Artemis]

Tuesday 12 August

18 races 21 selections 1 NR 5 winners
8/13, 4/1, 3/1, 9/4, 9/4.
Betfair SP -2.13
SP-2.88
Tote -1.70

SP favs
18 races 6 winners -0.75

Wednesday 13 August

33 races 37 selections 1 NR 7 winners
4/1, 7/4, 5/2, 7/4, 4/1, 15/8, 10/11

Betfair SP -11.70
SP -12.22
Tote -12.50

SP favs
33 races 12 winners +5.19

Totals
204 races 243 selections 12 NRs 62 winners
Betfair SP +33.54
SP +14.48
Tote +11.00

SP favs
205 races 69 winners +4.15

[Artemis]

Thursday 14 August

31 races 39 selections 1 NR 7 winners

5/1, 15/8, 8/1, 6/4, 4/6, 6/4, 17/2.

Betfair SP -0.13
SP -3.95
Tote -4.80

SP favs
31 races 6 winners -15.07

Totals

235 races 282 selections 13 NRs 69 winners

Betfair SP +33.41
SP +10.53
Tote +6.20

SP favs
236 races 75 winners -10.92

Aragorn,

In the first week(243 selections), those rated 95 or higher provided 81 selections and 21 winners out of a total of 62 winners for all selections.
The profit on these selections at Betfair SP was +20.46 out of a total profit of +33.54 for all selections. These figures suggest(on limited evidence) that the better class races are more profitable.

[Artemis]

Friday 15 August

32 races 38 selections 1 NR 8 winners

3/1, 5/2, 10/11, 11/8, 2/1, 2/1, 1/1, 5/2.

Betfair SP -12.78
SP -13.71
Tote -14.90

SP favs
32 races 9 winners -5.21

Totals

267 races 320 selections 14 NRs 77 winners

Betfair SP +20.63
SP -3.18
Tote -8.70

SP favs
268 races 84 winners -16.13

[Artemis]

Saturday 18 August

38 races 48 selections 10 winners

2/1, 9/4, 1/1, 2/5, 15/8, 6/5, 5/4, 4/1, 1/1, 11/8.

Betfair SP -20.00
SP -20.65
Tote – 20.60

SP favs
38 races 14 winners -4.86

Totals

305 races 368 selections 15 NRs 87 winners

Betfair SP +0.63
SP -23.83
Tote -29.30

SP favs
306 races 98 winners -20.99

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