Composite Ratings

[Artemis]

I’ve been looking back at my use of the Racing Post ratings and Topspeed ratings over the last two seasons in the threads I’ve posted.

Interesting, certainly, but dismal in terms of profitability. I cannot find any particular reason why this should be so. The ratings, using the same model as Timeform, are logically derived and even following them blindly should be considerably better than guessing. The Racing Post Ratings(RPR) are showing a 10% loss on all selections this year(flat and jumps) which is not too bad and a lot better than my composite ratings of RPR + Topspeed.

I don’t want to abandon Topspeed altogether because I firmly believe that the only sure measure of solid form is a relatively fast time. I’ve been devising a new ‘formula’ for the composite rating which I’m going to try out over the next few weeks.

The formula uses RPR + Topspeed only. Any considerations beyond that are purely subjective and I’m leaving them to one side for the time being.

The formula is:

Composite Rating = RPR as published in the RP
+ RPR allowance of 1 or 2 for latest run*
+ Topspeed Allowance of 1, 2, or 3*

* RPR latest run within 5lbs of RP best = +2
RPR latest run within 6 to 10 lbs of RP best =+1
Topspeed within 5lbs of RP best = +3
within 6 to 10lbs = +2
within 11 to 15 lbs = +1

Horses who have raced only once Add 6pts
Horses who have raced twice Add 4pts
Horses who have raced three times Add 2pts

The composite rating can be a maximum of RPR +5( or +11 for a horse that has raced only once, +9 twice, +7 three times)[/color:23l5c5ny]For me, this is very much a case of going back to basics and is much simpler than the complex algorithm that I’ve developed over quite a long period.

I’ll give it a run out from tomorrow on any race where the top RPR is 90+ (120+ jumps). £1 level stakes at Betfair SP on all selections which are top-rated, either clear or joint. For information, I will show the top three rated horses (or joint- top) in each race.

There should be plenty of selections during this busy period and I would expect to do slightly better than the basic RPR selections (-10%), not least because I’m using Betfair SP instead of the usual SP. I will also keep a record of the returns at normal SP and Tote Odds for information purposes.

[Artemis]

Sunday 6 July

Today’s ratings

Ayr

4.50 Esoterica 100 Won 4.71 Betfair SP*, 4.33 SP, 4.00 Tote[/color:1eq6m63u]
Society Music 95
Celtic step 95
Wigwam Willie 95

Brighton

3.30 Desert Chill 102 won 1.43, 1.40, 1.40[/color:1eq6m63u]
Civitas Filius 85
Gulch’s Rose 82
Certain Promise 82

Market Rasen

2.40 Russian Flag 126 lost[/color:1eq6m63u]
Hapthor 119
Norman Beckett 115

3.40 City Affair 132 NR[/color:1eq6m63u]
Ballyhale 118
Grecian Groom 118

4.10 No Complaint 131 Won 3.23, 3.00, 2.80[/color:1eq6m63u]
Return Home 130
Salhood 129

* Betfair SP is shown NET of 5% Commission on winnings.

BetfairSP SP Tote
Stakes 4.00 4.00 4.00
Returns 9.37 8.73 8.20
Profit 5.37 4.73 4.20[/color:1eq6m63u]

[Wallace]

I’m surprised by the base figure of -10% for RPR over time. Last time I looked into this I think it was about -22% for RPR and about -25% for Timeform. The "best" commercially available ratings are showing -3% for the last year. Anything close to break even at SP is good given the rigged system we now have.

[Artemis]

Wallace,

My stats were taken from the RP a few weeks ago when I bought the paper. They relate to Jan 1st, 2008 to about 14 days ago.

I agree that break even would be an excellent performance from any ratings given the rigged nature of SPs. Betfair SPs should be marginally superior, even allowing for a top-rate of 5% commission.

[Artemis]

Monday 7 July

Brighton- No qualifying races

Musselburgh
2.45 Nero West 95 won BF 2.42 SP 2.38 Tote 2.40[/color:1jkbv7xz]
Gordonsville 94
Collette’s Choice 91

Ripon
7.20 Sweet Applause 107 lost[/color:1jkbv7xz]
Jessica Mary 81
Lunar Romance 76

8.20 Wotashirtful 105 lost[/color:1jkbv7xz]
Great Charm 104
Piscean 103

Windsor
8.00 Dear Maurice 100 lost[/color:1jkbv7xz]
Royal Island 96
Folio 94

Betfair SP SP Tote
Stakes 4.00 4.00 4.00
Returns 2.42 2.38 2.40
Loss 1.58 1.62 1.60

I will add up the totals on a weekly basis[/color:1jkbv7xz]

[Have fun]

Artemis
Any idea on previous ratings what the strike rate was for the top rated say from June to end of August as that is when they say you get the best returns for top of ratings

Have fun

[Artemis]

Have Fun

Sorry, I have not got that data. You would need old copies of the Racing Post and work your way through them.

You can find out about how the top-rated RPR selection fared last year from a spreadsheet that Monster prepared. The link is in Monster’s post on page 2 of the Speed Ratings thread. The selections I’m putting on this thread are not always the RPR top-rated. They are the same in about 60 to 70% of races. This is due to the extra (up to) 5lbs that I add. You should also note that where there are joint top ratings in the RP, the team make a single selection based on other factors.

[Have fun]

Artemis
Ok will have a look at Monsters spreadsheet

have fun

[Artemis]

Tuesday 8 July

Pontefract
2.30 Johnmanderville 98 lost[/color:36p296uy]
Lisburn 96
Rosabee 94

3.30 Le Toreador 97 won 2.97, 2.75, 2.40[/color:36p296uy]
Select Committee 94
Chinese Temple 91

4.00 Mr Wolf 100 lost[/color:36p296uy]
John Keats 100 lost[/color:36p296uy]
High Curragh 99

4.30 Heritage Coast 96 lost[/color:36p296uy]
Motarid 83
Nisaal 82

Southwell – No qualifying races

Uttoxeter

7.20 Advancement 123 won 2.43, 2.38, 2.20[/color:36p296uy]
Petrovka 120
Strong Survivor 119

8.20 William Butler 128 won 1.71, 1.72, 1.70[/color:36p296uy]
Albarino 124
My Condor 123

Wolverhampton – No qualifying races

Betfair SP SP Tote

Stakes 7.00 7.00 7.00
Returns 7.11 6.85 6.30
Profit 0.11
Loss 0.15 0.70[/color:36p296uy]

[Artemis]

Wednesday 9 July

A bit short of time today and 13 qualifying races, so I’ll just give the top-rated.

Catterick
3.30 Numero Due 94 lost[/color:1e8jao61]

Kempton
6.20 Murrin 94 lost[/color:1e8jao61]
6.50 Deya’s Dream 90 lost[/color:1e8jao61]
7.20 Fabreze 98. edit: correction Spartan Duke 100 lost[/color:1e8jao61]
8.20 The Fifth Member 95 won 3.04, 3.00, 3.30[/color:1e8jao61]
Cape Of Luck 95 lost[/color:1e8jao61]

Lingfield
3.55 Dedante 95 lost[/color:1e8jao61]

Newmarket
1.30 Red Dune 109 won 2.43, 2.38, 2.40[/color:1e8jao61]
2.00 Temple Of Thebes 123 lost[/color:1e8jao61]
2.35 Lucky Leigh 118 lost[/color:1e8jao61]
3.10 Darjina 137 NR[/color:1e8jao61]
4.20 King O’ The Gypsies 101 lost[/color:1e8jao61]
4.55 Tender The Great 101 lost[/color:1e8jao61]

Worcester
7.40 Ellerslie Tom 144 NR[/color:1e8jao61]

Betfair SP, SP, Tote
Stakes 12.00 12.00 12.00
Returns 5.47 5.38 5.70
Loss 6.43 6.62 6.30[/color:1e8jao61]

[Monster]

Artemis
Ok will have a look at Monsters spreadsheet

have fun

Hi Have fun

2005-2007 2 yr olds have a higher strike rate.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … KH4yVEUfaA

Good Luck

Monster

[Artemis]

Thursday 10 July

Doncaster
7.35 Crystal Moments 99 lost[/color:tqvy23fe]
8.05 Flying Valentino 93 NR[/color:tqvy23fe]

Folkestone
2.45 Tableau Vivant 100 won 1.48, 1.44, 1.30[/color:tqvy23fe]

Newmarket
1.30 Bougereau 128 lost[/color:tqvy23fe]
2.00 Prolific 121 lost[/color:tqvy23fe]
2.35 Dream Desert 122 NR[/color:tqvy23fe]
3.10 Anna Pavlova 136 lost[/color:tqvy23fe]
Papal Bull 136 lost[/color:tqvy23fe]
3.45 Brae Hill 106 lost[/color:tqvy23fe]
4.20 Choose Your Moment 128 lost[/color:tqvy23fe]
4.55 Digital 108 lost[/color:tqvy23fe]
Northern Empire 108 NR[/color:tqvy23fe]
Northern Dare 108 lost[/color:tqvy23fe]

Nottingham
6.20 Forward Feline 96 lost[/color:tqvy23fe]
6.55 Sahaadi 94 lost[/color:tqvy23fe]
7.55 Fairmile 133 lost[/color:tqvy23fe]
9.00 Full Victory 97 lost[/color:tqvy23fe]
Rainbow Mirage 97 won 3.54, 3.50, 3.50[/color:tqvy23fe]

Warwick
1.50 Hay Fever 98 lost[/color:tqvy23fe]
2.55 Peter Island 94 lost[/color:tqvy23fe]
Coleorton Dancer 94 lost[/color:tqvy23fe]

No less than 21 selections in 16 races, but it should provide, by the end of the week, a decent sample to look at.

BF SP, SP, Tote
Stakes 18.00 18.00 18.00
Returns 5.02 4.94 4.80
Loss 12.98 13.06 13.20[/color:tqvy23fe]

[Artemis]

Friday 11 July

Ascot
3.00 Just Lille 103 NR[/color:2vx09s1w]
3.35 Roaring Forte 104 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]
4.10 Dressed To Dance 104 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]
Brunelleschi 104 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]
4.45 Cape Hawk 101 won 5.58, 5.40, 5.80[/color:2vx09s1w]
Oceana Gold 101 NR[/color:2vx09s1w]
5.20 Brief Goodbye 99 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]

Chepstow
7.00 Mazzola 94 Lost[/color:2vx09s1w]
8.05 Irony 93 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]
8.40 Stamford Blue 107 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]
Phantom Whisper 107 won 7.08, 6.50,4.30[/color:2vx09s1w]

Chester
6.40 Yomal 97 won 2.44, 2.50, 2.30[/color:2vx09s1w]
7.10 Doughnut 109 won 4.12, 3.50, 2.50[/color:2vx09s1w]
Madame Tropvite 109 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]
7.45 Little Pete 115 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]
8.50 Flying Dancer 109 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]

Newbury – No qualifying races

Newmarket
1.30 Flawed Genius 119 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]
2.00 Firth Of Fifth 106 won 9.55, 9.00, 8.60[/color:2vx09s1w]
2.35 Zaahid 126 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]
3.10 Kingsgate Native 138 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]
4.20 Liturgical 101 NR[/color:2vx09s1w]
4.55 Tifernati 104 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]

York
2.45 Cartimandua 124 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]
Manzila 124 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]
3.20 Countdown 100 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]
3.55 Crete 110 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]
4.30 West With The Wind 107 NR[/color:2vx09s1w]
5.05 Wibbadune 102 lost[/color:2vx09s1w]

Betfair SP, SP, Tote.
Stakes 24.00 24.00 24.00
Returns 28.77 26.90 23.50
Profit 4.77 2.90
Loss 0.50[/color:2vx09s1w]

[Artemis]

Saturday 12 July

Ascot
2.20 Markyg 112 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]
2.55 Cesare 138 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]
3.25 Heliodor 101 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]
4.00 Whenever 120 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]
4.35 Strike Up The Band 116 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]
5.10 Rydal Mount 96 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]
5.45 Cheveton 102 won 2.01, 2.00, 1.90[/color:1rwy0ggm]

Chester
2.25 Blythe Knight 127 won 7.46, 6.50, 6.80[/color:1rwy0ggm]
Beckermet 127 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]
3.00 Cheshire Prince 96 won 6.34, 5.00, 3.80[/color:1rwy0ggm]
3.35 Borderlescott 137 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]

Hamilton
7.10 Little Jimbob 100 won 1.75, 1.47, 1.70[/color:1rwy0ggm]

Nottingham
2.00 Select 108 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]
3.10 Bahamian Ceilidh 97 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]
3.40 Dubai Petal 97 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]

Salisbury
6.55 Starlarks 96 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]
7.25 Tudor Key 104 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]
8.00 Meydan Dubai 106 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]
9.00 Scuffle 112 won 2.00, 1.91, 1.80[/color:1rwy0ggm]

York
2.10 Blue Spinnaker 106 won 13.64, 13.00, 13.90[/color:1rwy0ggm]
Wavertree Warrior 106 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]
2.40 Everymanforhimself 108 NR[/color:1rwy0ggm]
3.15 Fishforcompliments 127 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]
3.50 Wing Collar 120 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]
Gull Wing 120 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]
5.35 Polish Pride 103 lost[/color:1rwy0ggm]

Betfair SP, SP, Tote
Stakes 25.00, 25.00, 25.00
Returns 33.20, 30.08, 29.90
Profit 8.20, 5.08, 4.90

Weekly Total 6th to 12th July
Stakes 94.00
Betfair SP Loss 2.54
SP Loss 8.74
Tote Loss 13.20

CONCLUSIONS

A brief experiment with too small a sample to form any definite conclusions about the effectiveness of this method of selection. 22 winners from 94 selections isn’t too bad and neither is a loss of 2.7 % on stakes(Betfair SP) compared to the loss of 10% (SP) that backing ALL Racing Post top- rated this year. This method returned a loss of 9.3% on SP, which isn’t much different. I suppose if you backed ALL RP top-rated at BETFAIR SP, you might get this loss down quite a bit, but I cannot see any profit in it over time.

I think this shows beyond any reasonable doubt that betting at Betfair SP rather than SP is a no-brainer. Betfair only accept singles at the moment, so it severely limits the punter’s choice, but it highlights the legalised banditry that is now SP betting.

From a personal point of view, this little experiment – a lazy way to pick horses, really – returned much better results than my considered study of speed ratings on another thread where losses were over 30% during a longer period but with about the same amount of bets.

I suppose if you are going to bet systematically on ratings, you might as well just back the top-rated at Betfair SP in the knowledge that you will have some decent days(4 out of 7 profitable in the last week), but lose a small proportion of your total stakes in the long run. Not really my cup of tea, but ideal for anyone who doesn’t want to spend( or arguably waste) time studying form. You could have a fairly interesting week at some of the best meetings with ATR and RUK, bet £10 a race, enjoy the thrill of it and all for the price of a tank of petrol or a pair of seats at a premiership game.

Well,…….as they say, back to the drawing board (form book)….will we ever learn?[/color:1rwy0ggm]

[Monster]

Hi Artemis

Scuffle won, you have this one as losing

Good Luck

Monster

[Artemis]

Thanks Monster

I’ve corrected that. It was just an error in editting – I had included it in the profit and loss account.

[dave jay]

Good exercise Artemis, did you take commission into account when you calculated the betfair SP?

[Author]

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