September 3, 2006 at 10:07 #2957Sailing ShoesMember
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It’s a race I’ve been looking at today EC – and haven’t really got angle in.
I’m looking to back both Texas Gold and Blue Tomato Each-Way.
I can’t have Zidane up 10lbs from his last win in much lesser class, and that for me is making the market.
Gimasha is an obvious danger – but this would be a career best effort and consistancy doesn’t look her strong suit.September 3, 2006 at 11:18 #76332
Blue Tomato for me.September 3, 2006 at 12:28 #76333seabirdParticipant
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I am hoping that Loyal Royal will have benefited from a break and recapture the useful form he showed at Salisbury (in running away with his maiden) and at Newbury (good run in Listed company) but I am not at all confident.
ColinSeptember 3, 2006 at 12:50 #76334davidjohnsonMember
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Haven’t had a good look at that race, but have thrown some pennies at Chip Leader in the first (to back cyrrently at 100 on betfair). Although a poor time, his third run at Bath has worked out well, and he could certainly be rated higher judged on the first 3. He’s coming off the back off a decent break having been gelded and there is enough stamina on his dam’s side to be hopeful of 7f being okay.
Have also had a little on Kings Heir in the 2.40, he looks interesting on his second over course and distance to Neradwon Beauty back in June. He also shaped well at newbiry last time, doing best of those to race up with the pace. Slight negative if if the first time headgear fires him up too much back up at 7f but he’s potetially well drawn for a front runner and will almost certainly trade lower in running than his current 17.5 odds suggest.September 3, 2006 at 12:53 #76335
Just a note to say how much I appreciate your detailed analysis, EC.
I spend so much time working out my ratings (with a view first and foremost to finding the best in the race at the weights) it’s usually only the blindingly obvious mudlarks or firm ground horses or track specialists that catch my eye.
Putting together your analysis and my ratings (below) would increase my hopes for Blue Tomato today. I wrote elsewhere:
"3.40 Lingfield (Norm 117)
(Draw first)<br>06 Blue Tomato 117<br>03 Loyal Royal 116?<br>02 Texas Gold 116<br>11 Connect 115 (116e) (122)<br>07 Gimasha 115<br>04 Grantley Adams 115 (p?)<br>05 Obe Brave 114<br>09 Gavarnie Beau 113<br>08 Lady Livius 111<br>01 Zidane 109+p<br>10 Campbeltown ? (106e)(117 o e)
IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢m reluctant to back Zidane at the price. If they have the Ayr Gold Cup in mind heÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ll probably need to pick up a penalty to get in so IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢m sure heÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ll be trying but IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢m not a fan of his jockey and I think 8lbs improvement might just be beyond the horse. With the stable back in flying form again, Blue TomatoÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s prospects are solid. Loyal Royal might be flattered on his conditions event form and Texas Gold would need to be his absolute peak to be involved at the death. Connect has prospects on his best form of last year but his jockey is a big negative. Grantley Adams seemed progressive until his last run and jockey bookings suggest Obe Brave might be more fancied today. Blue Tomato, whose jockey has a very good record at the track, is the selection."
I reckon there are excuses for BT in recent weeks and although I can accept his midsummer progress has plateaued out sometimes these sprinters start to improve again after a wee while. The figures say the rest of the field are worse-handicapped unless you’re prepared to go back over a year in Connect’s case.
I backed BT EW at better than 10s this morning but will cover that with something on Obe Brave.
(Edited by Maurice at 1:56 pm on Sep. 3, 2006)<br>
(Edited by Maurice at 1:59 pm on Sep. 3, 2006)September 3, 2006 at 14:52 #76336Sailing ShoesMember
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Unlucky EC – Obe ran a decent race.
If I was at home and not at work – I would probably have layed Zidane. Alas can’t access Betfair at work. :( <br>September 3, 2006 at 16:15 #76337
Did everything right and got the run of the race but Gimasha was just too strong close home, as the ratings suggested.
Blue Tomato lost the race at the start but the jockey didn’t seem to help it much.
The one to take from the race has to be Zidane but punters will be all over it like a rash next time. Poor draw, unimpressive jockey, forced outside most of the way yet beaten about 1/2length.September 3, 2006 at 19:56 #76338
But slow times don’t necessarily mean poor form, Stav.September 3, 2006 at 20:00 #76339davidjohnsonMember
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I’ll be happy to keep the winner on my side next time. Short of room and his rider only able to get after him properly inside the last 100 yds, asserting for just a couple of smacks. Handicapper can’t be too hard on him for that and I think he could well follow up.September 3, 2006 at 20:00 #76340LingfieldMember
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Dangerous game to make excuses for beaten horses but Zidane had bad draw and troubled passage.<br>Given its stable and with say Spencer up next time there will be no value
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