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For me this isn’t a betting proposition, but it is an interesting
race nonetheless. UN DE SCEAUX is the most obvious winner, although
SIRE DE GRUGY would have a say in it if he were anywhere near to
his best form, although being the old man of the race at ten I just
wonder if his very best days are behind him.It’s true that UDS has on ocassions had to be stoked up at the end, but
he always finds more and he is a bit like Moscow Flyer was (apart from
when he was 12), in that he either wins or falls, and fortunately for
him he rarely falls.Whilst I will enjoy seeing how the duel between those two plays out, the
horse I am equally interested in seeing running is TRAFFIC FLUIDE. I think
this is the horse that is open to most improvement in the race. In 4 races
from January to April he was raised 23lbs, and at 6 I’m hoping there is more
to come. His last 3 races, in order, he won “readily”, “comfortably” and when
stepping up to the Grade 1 Maghull Novice Chase, in his last race, he ran a
very decent staying on 3rd behind Sizing Granite and God’s Own. He has been
raised a further 6lbs for that, putting him on a mark of 154 which is still
14 & 15lbs behind the front two. If he runs close he will be raised again.
He fits the perfect profile of an improving horse and Gary Moore is no mug,
he wouldn’t throw him in here if he thought he was out of his depth.I don’t expect him to win this, but as the complete outsider at 25/1 I expect
him to run far better than his odds suggest. He is the only horse in the race
that hasn’t had a recent run, and as it’s his first run since April, I don’t
know how far on Gary Moore will have him, improvement could be expected. I
think this is a very decent horse and I’ve already put him up, and bet him,
for the RYANAIR at 50/1. If he goes as well as I hope he will, you can kiss
those odds goodbye. PP WH & Racebets still stand this at this time, Coral are
meanest at 20/1.I’ll enjoy just watching this without a bet, if I were pressed I suppose I might
chance a forecast with UDS 1st past the post.On official ratings has SDG 1 lb infront of UDS, suspect that is incorrect but there’s definitely not much between the two as their form (to date) stands. But there’s a potential Garry Moore spoiler in Traffic Fluide, a really good jumper of fences who races from the front/prominently. When making the decision on what race to give that horse its reappearance, am sure the fact it might disrupt UDS’s rhythm would’ve been a bonus. Added to that, SDG has ground conditions in his favour. UDS has yet to run against a horse as good as SDG. It’s true that UDS probably has more improvement in him, so should be the favourite. However, betting suggests he’s already shown that improvement, UDS is 8/13 (62%) and SDG is 5/2 (29%). Therefore, does UDS really have twice the chance of SDG?
Vibrato Valtat (official rating 161) is 11/1, Simply Ned 22/1 (OR 160) and Traffic Fluide 25/1 (154). Vibrato and Red seem exposed and if SDG runs to form need to find around 7 or 8 lbs to beat him. Traffic Fluide probably has more improvement in him, but needs to find a massive amount in one go to beat his stable companion. So unless the principle duo go too fast and either VV or SN come from the back for a flattering result – SDG looks a good thing for at least second.
SDG looks a good win bet at current odds, but am waiting for him to get a touch better. This is the type of event (long odds-on fav and all bar one of the others outsiders) that looks an excellent each way race to me. At 11/4 SDG gets back all but 16% of stakes if runner-up.
Value Is EverythingI would be more inclined to question SDG’s jumping over UDS – a fall and unseat in two of his four races last year, he tried his best to take one of the Exeter fences home with him first time out this season and his last fence mistake at Kempton in my mind cost him victory over Sprinter.
He is obviously not at the same level as when winning the QMCC and with this also being the 10 yr olds third race in 7 weeks, UDS will be a much fresher horse coming into the race and I can see him skipping along in front and possibly drawing mistakes out of SDG – the only fences that would worry me slightly with UDS will be the downhill ones away from the stands, but I am sure Ruby will have him well in hand by the time they get to them.
For me, I would be most disappointed if on ground that he loves UDS isn’t able to put SDG to the sword by at least 4 or 5L.
UDS has fallen on two seasonal debuts but i’d expect him to win tomorrow – the race could be a beauty.
My concern for him in the Queen Mum would be if Sprinter Sacre is A1 and comes along side down the back straight – his presence and jumping ability could force UDS into an error, much like Al Ferof’s a few years ago.
I was thinking about the Ascot card and there’s a listed mares hurdle – Mullins might decide to send a couple of horses over and get another run into UDS as soon as possible.
Nice when it all comes together…
Will any firm offer a double on the Mullins favs tomorrow ?
Knew nothing about Traffic Fluide until Graham mentioned it, and having looked back, am happy to follow him in at 50 for the Ryanair, with a small bet at 40 NRNB for the Champion Chase (Betfair).
Knew nothing about Traffic Fluide until Graham mentioned it, and having looked back, am happy to follow him in at 50 for the Ryanair, with a small bet at 40 NRNB for the Champion Chase (Betfair).
Good luck there Joe, I had considered the Champion Chase too, although
I think he’s more likely to go for the Ryanair. I don’t suppose it
would hurt me too much to have a little saver on the Champion Chase,
it would probably make sense (not my strong suit
).I hope we’re both feeling a bit smug after tomorrow’s race
I’ve just had a look about Joe and I see PP are NRNB on the Champion Chase,
and are offering 50/1.I’ve stuck a bit on him, if he doesn’t go that way then nothing lost. Thanks
for suggesting the covering bet and bringing me to my sensesThanks, Graham. Didn’t realize PP were NRNB. Looking forward to seeing how he does tomorrow. G Moore seems continually underrated as a trainer.
I do think that UDS will win comfortably, but TF has an interesting profile right enough, and the Ryanair looks open this year.
Too short UDS for this, I just want a cosy win and all systems go for the Champion Chase, win tomorrow and I can start the cheerleading.
Promotion wise
I’ve had the £10 max bet at 5/1 for UDS to win with betfair sportsbook. I got my Uncle’s friends, daughters, boyfriend to open an account, he doesn’t bet but I said I would give him a tenner if UDS wins. Don’t going telling on me ginge, you big snitch….Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Too short UDS for this, I just want a cosy win and all systems go for the Champion Chase, win tomorrow and I can start the cheerleading.
Promotion wise
I’ve had the £10 max bet at 5/1 for UDS to win with betfair sportsbook. I got my Uncle’s friends, daughters, boyfriend to open an account, he doesn’t bet but I said I would give him a tenner if UDS wins. Don’t going telling on me ginge, you big snitch….Mum’s the word Nathan.
I’m on each way SDG @ 11/4 tomorrow, 40/1 win bet for Cheltenham.Value Is EverythingHe is obviously not at the same level as when winning the QMCC
I’d be fascinated to know how you came to that conclusion LD?
Value Is EverythingWould it make more sense Ginge rather than backing SDG each/way
doing SDG to win and covering with UDS/SDG forecast…..?
or just doing a reverse forecast?Charles Darwin to conquer the World
UDS is an alert horse, he was never in a battle with either Gods Own or Just Cameron, just kept up to his work. He looks as genuine a horse as their is, he attacks his fences and travels at pace, I would hazard a guess and my last dollar that if he did get in a battle he wouldn’t shirk it and if he get beat via a battle I don’t think it would be because of his heart or a will to win but by miss timed fractions and going too quick early. If he can dictate from the front and get the fractions I cant see him beat here or Cheltenham.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
He is obviously not at the same level as when winning the QMCC
I’d be fascinated to know how you came to that conclusion LD?
Those that know him best have stated that fact and whilst you could write off last years form due to a rushed preparation off the back of an injury we are now 2 yrs on from his marque season and I just think that his battles and age are now starting to catch up with him.
It is very rare for a horse that has hit the heights to come back from an injury and then perform at the same level they were at prior to the injury (Sprinter Sacre another recent example) – connections indicate that he would be much better suited to real soft ground (unlikely to get that) as they claimed that last year’s QMCC on good was too quick for him even though he won his own QMCC on good and in a faster time.
Bar his novice season and last year’s QMCC, he also tends to have Special Tiara’s measure quite comfortably in their many clashes but ST finished the closest he has ever done in this season’s Tingle Creek (arguably unlucky he didn’t win) and he is well exposed (2 wins in his last 13 races) especially at this level.
Happy to be proven wrong but I would like to think that UDS and also Dodging Bullets (assuming they get there in one piece) have the necessary improvement in them to run a bigger rating than both SDG & SS are now capable of – that being said, I am not sure why he is double the price of SS as wherever they both finish, I think he will reverse the Kempton placings.
Those that know him best have stated that fact and whilst you could write off last years form due to a rushed preparation off the back of an injury we are now 2 yrs on from his marque season and I just think that his battles and age are now starting to catch up with him.
Jamie Moore must know him better than anyone and this is what he said after Kempton…
“He does feel as good as ever,” said the jockey. “I’m very happy with him anyway and I can’t wait for Ascot in a couple of weeks. He’ll run a very big race. I don’t know if he’ll beat Un De Sceaux but he’ll run a very big race anyway. He ran as good as he has ever done before [at Kempton].”
His official rating is only 3lbs lower than the highest it’s ever been so it doesn’t suggest he’s declined that much on his latest form…Un De Sceaux is certainly the most likely winner with natural progression but this is without doubt his biggest test to date.
He’s taking on the best horse he ever has, and a horse who (according to his pilot) is in as good a shape as ever and ready to run a massive race. If Un De Sceaux’s confidence has been knocked in any way from his latest fall then Sire De Grugy will take advantage IMO. I definintely think the difference in their two respective prices is too big taking everything into account…
My call today would be Vibrato Valtat EACH-WAY @ 12/1. He loves it soft, needs at least the extra furlong and ran very well at Kempton. He is also a much better horse than the opposition UDS had to face at Leopardstown and could still improve. Don’t forget that the favorite is on a recovery mission and despite all the quality behind the horse, it still has something to prove after the last race.
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