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Denman is sure to be there abouts and if the breathing op does infact allow him to finish his races off better, he’ll be hard to beat. I just hope Sam Thomas can keep the ride, haven’t heard anything about that as yet, would be keen to know if anyone else has???
I really hope McCoy doesnt get the ride, the last thing the tank needs is being booted into every fence, he just needs telling when to serve it up. I would hope McCoy is on Kempes instead as I reckon he might just find that little bit extra in the horse that I personally think he has.Ps. Not a trends person as such but here we have it:-
16 of the last 17 winners have been aged 7-9 and no 6 year old since Mill House in 1963 has won it…. that accounts for the first 4 in the betting
Denman is GUARANTEED to place in the Gold Cup. His record for Cheltenham speaks for itself.
Any ideas what Geraghty is likely to be on.
My mum wants to know – she’s got a soft spot for Our Bazza.
I am not sure what to make of recent comments about it being the wrong time of year for Diamond Harry. Surely the trainer would have noticed this being an issue when he was younger? I know horses’ coats vary with the time of the year but I didn’t think this made them run much faster or slower. But still it seems to be a genuine opinion and DH has drifted badly.
Perhaps if there are any other seasonal horses out there somebody could let me know.
In terms of horses’ coat and condition, the coat is a good indicator of general ‘wellbeing’ in the horse.
Whether or not Diamond Harry’s nutrition has been changed in comparison to this time of year, in previous years, i don’t know. However, there seems to be some concern from his trainer, that he isn’t in the same form, that saw him win the Hennessy earlier in the season.
Of course, the majority of racehorses are clipped, havign several rugs when in their stable, and have exercise sheets utilised during exercise, on a daily basis. This all helps to keep the horse warm, but also helps to keep the condition in the horse’s coat.
A horse that is struggling in terms of well-being, will often show signs of such as slow coming into their ‘Summer coat’, following their Winter coat. Of course, this all depends on the clipping of the animal too, but the colour of the coat is a good indicator.
Not on the same scale at all, but a relevant example within the equine, is when they develop ‘cushings’. If a horse has cushings, then generally this is accompanied with a very different appearance within their coat, and their condition is very poor as a result of the health problem.
Of course, that is not applicable in this situation, just an example within the equine.
There could be underlying problems with Diamond Harry that have not yet been detected, which make him appear to not be ‘quite there’, in terms of where his trainer and connectiosn would ideally like him to be, at a time that is coming up to the most prestigious race of his career to date.
It could be a problem with an aspect of his health, it could be that his nutrition has changed, both will affect his performance at home during routine work, but of course, on a racecourse too. I am sure connections will be performing various tests with him to see if they can attain a reason for his lack of application during his exercise at home, but at this stage, it would be a worry that he doesn’t seem to be where they would want him to be in terms of ‘being himself’.
Let’s hope Diamond Harry perks up a bit between now and Cheltenham.
Nothing to suggest that he is a vastly inferior horse in the New Year, where his form figures read: 111311P.
I was very impressed with his Hennessy success and if he is ‘sparkling’ again come The Festival, I truly believe he is the one they all have to beat in the Gold Cup.
This is a very, very talented horse and, more than any other in the race, fits the profile of a Gold Cup winner.
In Diamond Harry’s younger days he won an important bumper at Newbury. Then was "kept" until winning the same bumper, his only run that year if I remember right. Think there is often an underlying reason for horses being "kept" for specific races that early in a career. I remember seeing him at Newbury as a novice hurdler early in the season, looked in good condition. Later on saw him again, think it was Cheltenham in January. This time looked very light (skinny). Physically he is a tall sort but very light framed.
Doubt whether it is an Autumn / Spring issue; more likely he’s difficult to keep fit and goes well fresh. Williams was also in poor form until recently. May be there’s been a bug going around the stable.
Williams has done the right thing (imo) keeping him fresh for Cheltenham, it’s just unfortunate he’s under a cloud. With the yard now back in the winners, might not be too long before Harry is feeling perky.Value Is EverythingNoticed Significant support for Kempes the past week now best price 15/1 to win the gold Cup on the "fair". He is going to run by my estimation so and confidence seems to be growing day by day. With diamond harry not pleasing at home he could go single figure price.
Very interesting if the ground comes up quick on the final day of the festival.
Midnight Chase who has won 6 of his last 7 races with one of his wins coming further than the Cheltenham Gold Cup distance at Cheltenham back in November has stamina on his side and couple that with good jumping with pace from the front at a relentless gallop will certainly have those out of form and stamina doubtful quickly in trouble. 19/1 looks very generous for what is considered just a handicapper but this is an animal with a very big engine and my money is already on him to upset the big guns. One proviso is he would not want the ground soft or worse as he is much better on good ground with good to soft also in his limits. If the ground was to come up good then a much bigger bet would be recommended without doubt.
Midnight Chase who has won 6 of his last 7 races with one of his wins coming further than the Cheltenham Gold Cup distance at Cheltenham back in November has stamina on his side and couple that with good jumping with pace from the front at a relentless gallop will certainly have those out of form and stamina doubtful quickly in trouble.
The thing is Midnight Chase does not go a ‘relentless gallop’ he goes a good solid pace. With the exception of Kauto’s first GC they go at an incredible lick in the Gold Cup and I think Midnight Chase will struggle to lead much less win.
I think a case can be made for several this year, but my two against the field would be Imperial Commander and Diamond Harry.
In my opinion, Kauto Star and Denman are past their best (I freely admit to not being a lover of the Nicholls stable particularly), but Imperial Commander was in great form last year, goes well when fresh and simply loves the course.
Diamond Harry put up a cracking performace in the Hennessey and was a very deserving winner, and he too will be fresh for the day, but such is Imperial Commander’s record around Cheltenham (especially when fresh) that I feel he will take all the beating.
Long Run, on paper at least, also has a good chance, but I do wonder if he will be as effective around here as at Kempton. If he is, he might well have too much foot for Imperial Commander, but IC is the one for me !
I’ve backed Denman and Kauto Star, both at 8s and What a Friend at 33s, all no runner no bet, but on all known form and history, Imperial Commander should go off 2/1, maybe 6/4 on the day, you would assume. Only thing against him, is the recent record of 10 year old horses.
Sam Thomas set to ride Denman according to Paul Nicholls and Ruby to ride Kauto. As you would expect I know but positve news none the less for Denmans chances. Thank you Kempes.
Thanks for the comment ‘Shabby’. Maybe I’m living in hope but at 19’s I still think he’s worth an EW punt!!
Fascinating line up this year, think Denman and Kauto may be reduced to scrapping for minor honours purely on the basis that old father time may have caught up with them. I could be tempted by a Denman place only bet as I think he’ll get round but can’t see him winning, would be unbelieveable if either of these two old warriors could pull it off but not for me.
Long Run has got to have every chance if he can handle the course, Riverside Theatre’s recent win futher enhanced what was already a very impressive win in the King George. I think the only horse that can beat him is Imperial Commander, loves the course, looked well enough on his only run this season and no recent run not a concern, he’ll be carrying my cash for sure.
The two Irish challngers maybe be both slightly ground dependent, thnk it may come up too quick for Pandorama, if it does Kempes has an outside squeak.
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