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The other horse that really interests me is Kempes. Huge price at the moment and not really sure why? His first try at 3 miles and he goes and beats China Rock, who himself could turn out to be a very decent yardstick when studying form. Kempes will be better for decent ground and will stay every yard, not short of pace either. While I’m not tempted to remortgae, £2 e/w at the bonkers odds Betfair are throwing away could be worth a punt.
Join the ‘Kempes has a decent chance’ club, the club for people who think Kempes has, erm, a decent chance.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
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The senior cheallengers are so poor at the moment the novice Time For Rupert has more chance of beating Imperial Commander and Kauto Star than any of them do and he won’t run.
2 horse race if Kauto wins the King George with Denman fending off the rest.
I wouldnt be so quick to write off Denman. Paul Nicholls said before the Hennessey he might have to run the Tank every month this season. Straight after the race he changes his mind and says he goes straight to Cheltenham even without his usual prep in the AON. Quite a turn around for such an experienced trainer.
I did think myself if Denman can reproduce that level of form come march, he’ll be very difficult to beat.
After years of not seeing a horse reclaim the Gold Cup, could it be possible we see it twice in 4 years? It’s a funny old world and I wouldnt want to bet against it.
Makes you wonder if infact last years AON chase disaster was enough to stop Denman beating Imperial Commander, after all he didnt lose by that much.
8/1 e/w on Denman looks great value to me, more so than the 4’s you get on Kauto or Imperial to actually win the race.
The other horse that really interests me is Kempes. Huge price at the moment and not really sure why? His first try at 3 miles and he goes and beats China Rock, who himself could turn out to be a very decent yardstick when studying form. Kempes will be better for decent ground and will stay every yard, not short of pace either. While I’m not tempted to remortgae, £2 e/w at the bonkers odds Betfair are throwing away could be worth a punt.And then there’s the MULE….. we all know who I mean!
While Denman has a shout I wouldn’t be tempted at 8/1 ew as I can’t see him winning without something going wrong with both Kauto Star and Imperial Commande. Unless you are convinced he can win your backing him at 1/2 on your outlay.
Much Depands what happens on Boxing Day, weather permitting. If Kauo Star wins well then he surely must have a better chance than Denman of beating Imperial Commander.
It’s 2 years on from when Kauto hacked up from Denman. We all know what he’s capable of when he’s on song but Denman with all respect just hasn’t got the toe to win another Gold Cup without something going terribly wrong with both Kauto Star and Imperial Commander.
A logical punter would have to say Imperial Commander is the most likely winner as Kauto must surely be starting to feel the pinch and Denman is very one paced. However last years Gold Cup was spoiled when Kauto made one very bad blunder which appeared to have taken an awfull lot out of him later in the race.
As he has only beaten Sizing Europe since who we don’t even know stays 3 miles properly, maybe it wasn’t the mistake that seen him come under pressure so early maybe he has deterioate?
That’s where the King George comes in. It should tell us a lot more about Kauto Star the 10/11 year old.
If he gets to the Gold Cup and can get into a rhythm, jumping well I’m fairly confident he’d leave Imperial Commander for dead. Kauto has the best instant accelaration I have ever seen in a chaser and if he can use that it’s race over.
There’s a lot more hoping going on this end than there is real confidence but if anyone can bring him back to his very best it’s Paul Nichols with Ruby in the saddle.
While Denman has a shout I wouldn’t be tempted at 8/1 ew as I can’t see him winning without something going wrong with both Kauto Star and Imperial Commande. Unless you are convinced he can win your backing him at 1/2 on your outlay.
Much Depands what happens on Boxing Day, weather permitting. If Kauo Star wins well then he surely must have a better chance than Denman of beating Imperial Commander.
Denman leads Kauto in their Gold Cup meetings 2-1
Denman showed at Newbury that he is still capable of running close to his best. KS hasn’t shown this since his last run at Kempton more than a year ago.
Despite being the same age Denman has had far fewer races than his stable companion.
Kauto Star is vulnerable at Cheltenham. He was ran ragged in 2008 and he has also fallen twice at the Festival – compare that record to Denman’s, five Festival appearances and never outside the top two.All this points to Denman being a stronger contender for Imperial Commander’s crown. He should be shorter than Kauto in the market.
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Just when I say there’s nothing new coming along up pops Pandorama
He has Gold Cup written all over him if the front two fail to shine.What doesn’t point to Denman being the main contender is the fact he’s showing distinct signs of deterioation.
I understand what PN’s idea is not running him until the Gold Cup but there’s more to it than meets the eye IMO.
If he had a realsitic chance of beating Imperial Commander and an inform Kauto Star I could see the logic in it but to miss the AON with a horse who most would agree has an ew chance in the Gold Cup at best doesn’t compute.
Perhaps he didn’t come out of his race at Newbury as well as hoped and that is why the decison was made to miss the AON.
I won’t be risking my hard earned cash to find out, not unless I place lay him and can only wish anyone who does back him the best of luck.
Could this be the last time we see the brilliant Kauto in action?
Just when I say there’s nothing new coming along up pops Pandorama
He has Gold Cup written all over him.Assuming we’re talking about Pandorama winning the Lexus being the strength of his gold cup credentials, Kempes was probably going better when he fell two from home. McCoy was giving him a peach of a ride and just beginning to move up the gears without looking like being under any real pressure. Pandorama won’t improve for the better ground we’ll most likely see at Cheltenham but Kempes will. Not saying Kempes could win the Gold Cup (although I do feel he’ll be placed) but what I would say is if he can’t, i dont think Pandorama’s got much hope either. Wont have the speed imo.
That’s where you and I differ Andrew
I am a big fan of Kempes, even backed him for the King George
, but speculating on how well he was going in comparison to Pandorama is pure guesswork. Personally I thought Paul Carberry was doing handstands on Pandorama, and when he comes off it he finds plenty. Kempes was by no means a certain stayer either. Kempes will no doubt improve for better ground though. I’d say I’m well in the minority in thinking that Pandorama has more speed than he’s given credit for. In the Knight Frank, he was about 3 lengths off the leaders turning out of the back straight if my memory serves me correctly and as soon as Carberry gave him a shake of the reins he picked up the lengths with relative ease. I think he has plenty of speed for a Gold Cup, but THIS Gold Cup is no ordinary one.
If there is going to be a changing of the guard so to speak regarding the staying chasers, I feel he’s the one with the best credentials to take the crown.
That’s where you and I differ Andrew
I’d say I’m well in the minority in thinking that Pandorama has more speed than he’s given credit for. In the Knight Frank, he was about 3 lengths off the leaders turning out of the back straight if my memory serves me correctly and as soon as Carberry gave him a shake of the reins he picked up the lengths with relative ease. I think he has plenty of speed for a Gold Cup, but THIS Gold Cup is no ordinary one.
I personally think Pandorama has a decent enough cruising speed, just think after 3 miles round Cheltenham on better ground he’ll be found wanting for that extra gear in the last couple of furlongs that’s needed to win a Gold Cup. Unless of course he does a Denman and can gallop the rest into submission as to eliminate that need, but i dont see that as his style of running and anyway performances like that are few and far between.
Anyhow, the interesting thing about this years Gold Cup is that there is a higher quantity of top class younger horses with realistic claims to the throne than in previous years. Would rather see it this way than taking the view that the older ones are in decline (convined Kauto, Denman and obviously IC could still run to somewhere near their best at lest one more time). The likes of Burton Port, Long Run, Pride of Dulcote to name a few should make for a great race, I’d be very surprised if there was 30 lengths between 1st and 3rd in this years race like there was last year.
Like most horse races its all on the ground at cheltenham. it normally rides good good/soft cheltenham so i think pandorama will struggle as the trainer said he prefers soft ground!!
Denman is a good price at 8-1 if the ground gets a little slower like when he won the gold cup!! never outside top 2 in cheltenham festivals??
Kauto’s record at cheltenham is not the greatest but if ruby gets him into the rhythm and jumping well you can never discount him as he oozes class.
Twiston-davies has a love affair with cheltenham as its his local track so imperial will be spot on ready to defend his trophy.
As punters were in for a treat!! Again!
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I think Pandorama’s trainer says more in his prayers.
It’s all well and fine saying he needs testing conditions but what does that mean exactly.
We know he seems to prefer plenty of cut but just how much cut does there need to be at Cheltenham to make it a test of stamina.
The Gold Cup is the most gruelling race on the calender because unlike the Welsh Grand national etc it is run at a tremendous pace and unless you have loads of stamina you’re speed has gone by the 3rd last and you end up tailed off before you know it.
Pandorama if far from slow he travels really well and has Gold Cup written all over him. I can’t see Kauto running let alone bouncing back. Denman wouldn’t have anywhere near the staying power of Pandorama these days nor is he as fast as he used to be.
Imperial Commander is the obvious one to beat but I’m sticking with Pandorama.
2012 enter Big Bucks then it won’t amtter what runs the race is over before it begins
You could be on to something here Fist re: Pandorama’s supposed ground dependence.
He won the Gigginstown p2p bumper at Fairyhouse on good-to-yielding ground and it was yielding at Leoparstown when he beat Weapons Amnesty. I don’t think the Newbury no-show can be attributed to the ground. He was too fresh having missed his prep at Down Royal and once he belted the second fence it was race over and Paul made the right decision in pulling him up quickly. If the ground rides like it did in last year’s Gold Cup (or the 2008 renewal when it was genuinely soft), he’d be ok I think.
Have to say, if Nicholls gets Denman to the Gold Cup this season in excellent fitness, without the run in the AON Chase before hand, then i think he has a fantastic chance.
He ran an amazing race in the Hennessy, and if he can replicate that form and fitness, i think he will go very, very close.
Having watched Long Run win the King George, I had no hesitation in ploughing half my winnings on him at 7/1 for the Gold Cup. On yesterdays showing he will have every chance of emulation Desert Orchid and Kauto Star in winning 4 King Georges since he will be going for the double at age 6 the treble at 7 and the fourtimer at age 8.
To me he is the most talented performer I have seen for a long time and certainly has the biggest engine of all the Gold Cup contenders.
I can only see 2 dangers to Long Run in the Gold Cup, Imperial Commander and Diamond Harry.
I agree. I think the value is in Long Run. One doubt though is whether, like Kauto, he prefers going on flat right handed courses.
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