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I’m taking Denman’s win in the Gold Cup to be closer to a 180 than 185.
A horse might only have to do a 177 or 176 to win this season.
Barbers Shop and Imperial Commander only have to improve by 1lb per week. That is feasible.Surely a second season chaser traditionally has some sort of say in the finish – I’m just trying to figure out which one(s).
Am I alone in thinking the merit of Star de Mohasion’s run at Cheltenham has been undestimated. That looks like a 170 ish performance to me which would put him bang on the cusp for a place at least in the race. Looks more like a 14’s chance than 33’s.
You can count me in the SDM group David. Sun Alliance winner at 5 and just put up a great weight carrying performance in defeat yesterday – bar Mon Mome he’d have absolutely hacked all over some very well handicapped horses.
Provided they send him to the Gold Cup (particularly with doubts about 2 of his stablemates – Denman’s heart problems and Kauto’s form/jumping) 33/1 is a great price each way.
Gained the impression on the Flat many years ago that the Official Handicapper, being lazy or not knowing what else to do would take the 3rd or 4th and assume that has run to its rating.
RPR not on RP website, but TS is. Assuming they use the same pound per length scale, and assuming Possol ran to his rating, Star de Mohaison did a 171.Clarification, that would be 171 as an Official Rating. RPR usually seems to be 5 or 6lbs more than that.
Star de mohaison has serious Gold Cup claims on that performance
yesterday, but the horse has always been rated by connections as a serious contender, he will defineately improve for that run too,No Denman
though!The RPR is out. Star De Mohaison got a 169.
Chickened out a bit?
We’ll just have to wait to see what Mon Mome does, if he runs in the Welsh National. Venetia might well let Flintoff win that one. The owner must be in a quandary about Flintoff – he wants to win the GN, but the horse wants mud.
Sorry guys, doesnt matter a toss what the ratings say, Denman had everything else struggling a mile from home last year. Unless something can live with him and make the running, the same will happen again this year. Fact is, he’s still the safest place to put your money this year
…with a dicky ticker?
That’s too large an imponderable to allow me to be entirely comfortable with such a bold prediction.
Horses have come back from heart murmurs before and recovered all their form; good ones, too, such as Hand Inn Hand. None of them, however, was a 180-rated animal built like the proverbial brick house, and one wonders what unprecedented heart strain it might require for that big a horse to put in that big a performance.
Moreover, his wellbeing in that regard might not get quite as stiff an examination before the Gold Cup as is required. In the same way that Kauto Star’s bloodless Down Royal didn’t require him to be pushed to the extent that any decline in his ability would have been exposed (a decline which the subsequent Haydock run hinted at more strongly), so could the Aon Chase be a falsely-run or thinly-contested race which Denman might struggle to lose whilst masking the possibility of him not being the horse he was.
And if that proves to be how the Aon Chase does pan out, and if it further proves to be his only start before the Gold Cup, I’d be hardly any more confident about his chances than if he’d gone straight to Cheltenham without any manner of prep race.
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
thats true enough, but i think people are making more of his problems than his problems actually are….. connections seem happy enough with him, the bookies still have him clear favourite and so i just feel some people are trying to make a case for other prospects, thinking they might get some sort of value from the race. Adding the fact his style of running, dont think he’ll necessarily need to be at his best to have them struggling a long way out again
They´re also likely to ask him to carry 12 stone and give weight away all round on his debut at Haydock Jeremy.
Denman for the Gold Cup? Not for me just yet.
Hmmm…..time will tell. But Denmans time in the gold cup last year was 3 seconds faster than SDM’s time the other day, on the same sort of going, over a furlong more, and still had a bit in hand. (although some people say he was tying up) Maybe if i was going to switch alliances, would prefer to maybe look at neptune collonges (ran well last year after a long long lay off)??
They´re also likely to ask him to carry 12 stone and give weight away all round on his debut at Haydock
Hi Martin, call me a sad, lonely so-and-so, but I not only looked up the 2006 Peter Marsh today, I also downloaded the Jumps Pattern Book.
The Peter Marsh weight range is 11st10lbs to 10st4lbs.
Denman will only have to concede a maximum of 20 pounds. Anything below 162 or so will be out of the handicap.
This might be another race that doesn’t tell us what state Denman is in.Cheers, Hello all! I agree SDM is a big price but I also agree with the bookmakers on this one, which is a rarity by the way. (usally look for each way value bets at cheltenham). I’m just not sure how good coming 2nd to mon mome is even giving that much weight away. He would of had to win that race pretty convincingly for me to be thinking about placing my money…. But to be fair to the horse, was his first competitive chase in over two years and will improve. (will have to racing off a mark of 169 against a lot classier opposition which he’ll now inevitably have to do)
Also downloaded the current BHA ratings. Star De Mohaison’s rating not due for another couple of days. Also no Irish horses. If you downgrade Denman and Kauto Star, and include SdM, there are 7-8 3milers within a 6lb range at the top.
Master Minded (FR) 186
Denman (IRE) 182
Kauto Star (FR) 175
Neptune Collonges (FR) 174
Voy Por Ustedes (FR) 173
Exotic Dancer (FR) 172
Our Vic (IRE) 171
Twist Magic (FR) 170
The Listener (IRE) 170
Snoopy Loopy (IRE) 168
Tamarinbleu (FR) 167
Tidal Bay (IRE) 166
Halcon Genelardais (FR) 164
Racing Demon (IRE) 162
Monets Garden (IRE) 162
Takeroc (FR) 161
Jack The Giant (IRE) 161
Natal (FR) 160
Madison du Berlais (FR) 160
Air Force One (GER) 160
Andreas (FR) 159
Big Bucks (FR) 159
Ashley Brook (IRE) 159
Barbers Shop (GB) 159
My Way de Solzen (FR) 159
Noland (GB) 159
Ollie Magern (GB) 159When does denman become value??.If he wins his come back run easily then prep run before the festival what odds does he become?.I think about a 8/13 shot.With all antepost betting i try to think ahead and what i feel is going to happen and i really think denman will come back well but who knows?.ive had quite a bit off 2/1 antepost about denman and missed the 5/2 that you could off got on betfair.I just feel were short off top class 3mile plus chasers and denman wont have to be at his brilliant best also had a lot off 5/4 MM for champ chase but thats a diffrent thread
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