- This topic has 622 replies, 97 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
The only one prominent in the betting for the GC without a question mark now is Neptune Collonges IMO. I’m considering a bit of 9s.
And aaronizneez, I know you have this thing against Exotic Dancer but I can’t help but feel that the inevitable by-product of Kauto-bashing is fiddling the facts in order to suit. At his best, Kauto Star is (was?) a 180 horse, and to say he isn’t would require the pulling down of a an entire generation of chasers.
Friggo I would agree you could do a lot worse than Neptune Collonges at the moment. As for Kauto bashing , I’m only expressing an opinion which most will probably not agree with. As mentioned previously he can be scintillating at times and going right handed a 180 performer wouldn’t be out of the question, going left handed I would strongly disagree. The horse is the most versatile since Desert Orchid although he may have a challenger to that if Tidal Bay keeps going the right way but some on this forum were falling over themselves to say the best since Arkle , I just happen to disagree.
Would drive you nuts this having two threads on the same subject.
However H hit the nail right on the head when he said the same thing happened in the race last year. Obviously PN let him down a bit as he did last year.he may even have over done it as he did say he was in the best form ever this year…possible????. Sam Thomas did bog all wrong BTW.
My Advise..get yer lot on at 6/4 for the King George and no I’m not on the sauce again
Can’t agree that he did the same thing as last year….last year he had control, jumped well and confirmed superiority over a lesser but able rival.
Contrast to yesterday when he travelled well till the race started in earnest then jumped poorly, came under pressure and fell/ur. All of this against rivals who were 12-20lbs his inferior.
Also what evidence is there that ‘PN obviously let him down’ …has PN said as much?All I can say is I agree the pressure could be the answer but if PN didn’t let him down and that was the best we can expect from him nowadays he’s in big big trouble.
Time will tell and I know it was a muddling old race and had he gone to the front 2 out without error he may well have won easily. These things are extremely hard to judge when a horse clouts one. We as spectators have no idea how much it takes out or does not take out of a horse…..Sure he got a little prod going to the 3rd last but he was going well enough and the leader wasn’t stopping at that point.Sam new exatly what he was doing and had he jumped it well he would more than likely gone past the leader before the 2nd last and gone on to win.
All together a very dificult race to work out IMO. too many if’s and buts…..anyway, If I am wrong it’s way to late as I backed him again yesterday fro the KG.
FIST, on last years King George performance,Kauto star would be a 4/7 chance for this years race, even accounting for the likes of Tidal bay and Voy por running. On what he has achieved since he should be at least 5/2 and i for one still dont fancy him! For those that do, i believe that this years King George is the most important race on Kauto"s agenda his whole season is geared around it, so those that think he wasn"t 100% fit on saturday have the hope that he will be bang on for 26th of Dec, on the other hand running horses "short" can do more harm than good especially
when pressure is applied.I have enjoyed watching Kauto Star and he has all the attributes of a top class chaser.He’s toughness and bravery is unquestionable in my mind.
So why has he been beaten in three of his last four starts??
He has had a lot of demanding races.
Also I would suggest that as he approaches the age of nine this French bred is in decline.
It is an undeniable truth that French breds mature and decline earlier in their racing life.A combination of this and his hard races suggest to me time is short for Kauto Star.
At Kempton he will have everything in his favour.Can he still win?I hope so but he is much more vulnerable than in either of the past two renewals.- Total Posts 158
Neptune Collonges for me, this horse is a gold cup winner.
You may not be far wrong mate with both Denman and Kauto Star fail to produce their best but if one or both do he wouldn’t have an earthly of winning.
However there is noshame in that.
Denman is going to take some beating again andwhen you look back and him and Kauto last year (I know we can all be smart asses after the event) how obvious was Denman.
Horse jumps like a buck and takes everything around him of their feet.
The supporters of KautoStar like me were dependant on him not making errors. Seeing out the trip for the most part on the bridle and hoping Denman didn’t curb his pheonominal speed.
The fact I have backed Kauto Star at huge odds means nothing if he can’t produce the above….if he did he would eat Denman alive……but that is a hige if…….right now I see the Gold Cup as a walkover for Denman if he comes back to his best…….Just too many if’s about Kauto and although I think he’ll win the KG easily again the Gold Cup is a totally different ball game.
What you will see come Gold Cup day – should Denman turn up – is the horse’s jockey carrying Harry Findlay’s purple colours once again. Findlay and Barber decided to alternate between the two sets of colours each season the horse runs. Findlay’s turn next.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
FIST, on last years King George performance,Kauto star would be a 4/7 chance for this years race, even accounting for the likes of Tidal bay and Voy por running. On what he has achieved since he should be at least 5/2 and i for one still dont fancy him! For those that do, i believe that this years King George is the most important race on Kauto"s agenda his whole season is geared around it, so those that think he wasn"t 100% fit on saturday have the hope that he will be bang on for 26th of Dec, on the other hand running horses "short" can do more harm than good especially
when pressure is applied.Bookies simply aren’t that silly GW, I noticed PN’s form is very in and out and another couple of his hot pots went awol today….Maybe I’m just a sentimantal old fool but I have hammered him for the King George in the belief that he would have won last time out but for errors and he wasn’t fully wound up……I agree The KG must be his main target.
Butyour away of the mark about running them a bit short. It is something trainers do all the time, run them not fully wound up…. It is impossible to have any horse 100% all the time and if Kauto was 100% first time out like PN said he would definately ease up on him a bit on him especially for race he should have won doing handstands. That’s only common sense.
Cast your mind back to Kempton last year when after Binocular beat Pierre L. Nicky Henderson admitted the horse wasn’t 100% and he had left a bit to work on. or Katchit? enough said
I believe no horse has ever regained the gold Cup so that has to rule out Kauto and War of Attrition (I know records are there to be broken but something never happening before is quite big given how many have tried like the beaten Dante horse one in the Derby). Denman is obviously the best 3m2f horse in training but until we know his well being on the day he can’t be backed and I believe no horse has won the Gold Cup making their seasonal debut so late (not 100% sure on that stat).
Given how well 2nd season chasers do, I’m tempted to look at the likes of Imperial Commander, Air Force One and Albertas Run all of whom are trying to expolit reasonable handicap marks before stepping up into conditions races but who have the class to do so.The said the same thing about the Champion Hurdle but it happened.
You may find no horse has even tried to win it 2 years after doing so, which is a good reason why it’s never happened….correct me if I’m wrong as I am dependant totally on memory here.
Looks Like Trouble tried once, See More Business had a few goes I think off the top of my head
edit and dessie of course, garrison savannah , nortons coin
oh and jodami
SMB must have I have a picture of them jumping together on my comp. Dessie definately behind one of Jenny Pitmans but wasn’t Jodami injured in Ireland before his 3rd attempt?
I hate stats to be honest they give no room for the ability of individual horses. Just because the aforementioned couldn’t doesn’t mean Kauto won’t or Master Minded didn’t do what he did when they said impossible.
Stats are just a series of coincidences.
You know statistically you should rule all grey horses out of the National?
We’ve had 3 grey horses win in 150 years – none since the 60’s.
We should rule out horses wearing blinkers too – exceptionally poor record. Earth Summit was the first in a long while.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.