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Hurdles (old course) 0.00s/f (good)
Chase (old course) -0.32s/f (good to soft)Cheltenham
10-Mar-15RACE WINNER DIST RATING
01:30 Douvan 2m½f 152
02:05 Un De Sceaux 2m 159
02:40 The Druids Nephew 3m1f 130
03:20 Faugheen 2m½f 140
04:00 Glens Melody 2m4f 90
04:40 Cause Of Causes 4m 116
05:15 Irish Cavalier 2m4½f 130I think that we can finally put to bed, the notion that The New One is a champion hurdle horse.
Mike.
RE: I think that we can finally put to bed, the notion that The New One is a champion hurdle horse.
I have to agree. As much as I like STD he’s still too naive and they should let another jockey ride the horse, or run him over 3 miles.
He would make a good chaser though Phil , ….he will have to I think
well played Blues as always
Good ground and not much rain forcast tomorrow. But quite a lot for “Cheltenham” Thursday night in to Friday. Will the course get it?
Value Is EverythingCheltenham Weds 11.03.2015.
Going allowances:
Hurdles (old course) 0.00s/f (good)
Chase (old course) -0.35s/f (good to soft)
Cross country 0.00s/fCheltenham
11-Mar-15RACE WINNER DIST RATING
01:30 Windsor Park 2m5f 102
02:05 Don Poli 3m½f 141
02:40 Aux Ptits Soins 2m5f 88
03:20 Dodging Bullets 2m 160
04:00 Rivage D´Or 3m7f 85
04:40 Qualando 2m½f 119
05:15 Moon Racer 2m½f 102I expected a speed figure of around 130 for the bumper, Moon Racer’s
figure of 102 was disappointing, especially as my original section for the race
Pylonthepressure who was a non-runner had a speed figure of 118 in the book.Mike.
Cheltenham Weds 11.03.2015.
Going allowances:
Hurdles (old course) 0.00s/f (good)
Chase (old course) -0.35s/f (good to soft)
Cross country 0.00s/fCheltenham
11-Mar-15RACE WINNER DIST RATING
01:30 Windsor Park 2m5f 102
02:05 Don Poli 3m½f 141
02:40 Aux Ptits Soins 2m5f 88
03:20 Dodging Bullets 2m 160
04:00 Rivage D´Or 3m7f 85
04:40 Qualando 2m½f 119
05:15 Moon Racer 2m½f 102I expected a speed figure of around 130 for the bumper, Moon Racer’s
figure of 102 was disappointing, especially as my original section for the race
Pylonthepressure who was a non-runner had a speed figure of 118 in the book.Mike.
They came off a standing start in the bumper and Moon Racer’s jockey said his horse got left. He then elaborated that they were forced to race up the inside behind a wall of horses and just had to hope that the gaps eventually came.
I actually thought his chance had gone and was mightily relieved to see him get out and I then felt he was going to get there, which he did.
Pylonthepressure looked more of a stayer to my eyes but I know Rich Ricci thought he was marginally better than Bordini. In the end we’ll never know because A) Pylonthepressure was a late absentee B) Bordini was pulled up and C) The best any of the Mullins runners managed was 10th place.
Based on the above you would have to say Pylonthepressure would need to have been seriously better than any of his stablemates to have won that race, or, a whole raft of stable companions all chose the same day to be off form.
I wouldn’t underestimate Moon Racer, he’s a £5000 horse who won at 50/1 first time in a valuable Fairyhouse bumper and he sold for £225,000 afterwards, he’s since won twice at Cheltenham, including the biggest bumper pot and he’s as exciting a prospect going hurdling next year as anything.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Cheltenham 12.03.2015
Going allowances:
Hurdles (New course) 0.00s/f (good)
Chase (New course) 0.00s/f (good)Cheltenham
12-Mar-15RACE WINNER DIST RATING
01:30 Vautour 2m4f 149
02:05 Call The Cops 3m 128
02:40 Uxizandre 2m5f 159
03:20 Cole Harden 3m 141
04:00 Darna 2m5f 111
04:40 The Package 3m2f 115I once sat down and worked out, that with the right conditions, the maximum
speed figure a jumps horse could earn was a figure of 160,
with the quality of horses Willie Mullins has in his care, I have upped the
maximum figure to 165
Couldn’t help but notice that the 3m 2f start (Kim Muir) appears to be only about 30 yards less then the Gold Cup start (advertised as being over an extra half a furlong).
Couldn’t help but notice that the 3m 2f start (Kim Muir) appears to be only about 30 yards less then the Gold Cup start (advertised as being over an extra half a furlong).
You could be right, I haven’t heard anything more about the BHA’s project of re-measuring national hunt racecourse distances, after the Wetherby fiasco.
Fab going allowance info as ever – very interesting.
Re TNO, I actually really like the horse, and thought he could be outstanding when he hammered Rock On Ruby at Kempton start of last season, but Rock On Ruby clearly wasn’t anywhere near his peak that day, TNO just doesn’t jump well enough to be a Champion Hurdler and I think it was more than the ground bothering him at Haydock.
Don’t think you can blame Sam Twiston-Davies, though, I don’t think anyone jockey could have got any more out of the horse, he holds the horse up beautifully and had no option other than to lie handy Tuesday due the the very slow pace.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Cheltenham 13.03.2015
Going allowances:
Hurldles -0.49s/f (soft)
Chase -0.49s/f (soft)Cheltenham
13-Mar-15RACE WINNER DIST RATING
01:30 Peace And Co 2m1f 123
02:05 Wicklow Brave 2m1f 122
02:40 Martello Tower 3m 115
03:20 Coneygree 3m2½f 159
04:00 On The Fringe 3m2½f 119
04:40 Killultagh Vic 2m4½f 92
05:15 Next Sensation 2m½f 109As Coneygree is still classed as a novice chaser, his performance yesterday just took the breath away.
After watching the race I was convinced he broke my mythical speed figure barrier of 160 and earned the fastest ever national hunt speed figure I have ever calculated, it was a shame that after the going allowance adjustments, he ended up with a figure of only 159.
As Silviniaco Conti has an official rating of 174, how will the official handicapper react to Coneygree’s performance, he has to put him up by at least 20lbs.Mike.
He didn’t run to 174 yesterday.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"He didn’t run to 174 yesterday.
I had Silviniaco Conti running to within 14lb of his best speed figure, there was nothing wrong with his performance, Coneygree just took him and most of the field out of their comfort zone.
To put the race into context you only had to look at Ruby’s face in the Jockey’s room, his horse Djakadam
had run out of his skin to finish second, I had him improving his best speed figure by 43lb.National Hunt Ratings:
https://web.cloud.virginmedia.com/?shareObject=68d593c9-3a46-c681-616c-dd2e50d453a8Mike.
I notice Uxizandre got a rating of 159 – same as Coneygree. Assuming as seems likely that both showed their true best form at the festival does that mean they are of roughly equal standard on best form (adjusted for optimal distance). Or is some adjustment required to make a like-for-like comparison?
I notice Uxizandre got a rating of 159 – same as Coneygree. Assuming as seems likely that both showed their true best form at the festival does that mean they are of roughly equal standard on best form (adjusted for optimal distance). Or is some adjustment required to make a like-for-like comparison?
No need to make anymore adjustments, I have already done that using my lbs per length formula.
Uxizandre 2m5f 0.65
Coneygree 3m2½f 0.50Uxizandre set a new course record and the pace was -0.28s/f
Coneygree also made the running, but the pace was only +0.21s/fThe overall factor in assessing any sort of speed figure comparison, is the ability to assess the actual
course variant on the day (going allowance)..
As Silviniaco Conti has an official rating of 174, how will the official handicapper react to Coneygree’s performance, he has to put him up by at least 20lbs.Mike.
Coneygree came into the race on 166, if he goes up 20lbs he’ll be on 186. I can’t see it myself.
I doubt Siviniaco Conti ran anywhere near 174 yesterday.
The trouble the handicapper has is, if he did put Coneygree on to 186 is the mark he would have to give Djakadam and Road To Riches, beaten only a length and a half and 3 and a half lengths.
There were some odd performances in the race, Coneygree increased his margin of victory over Houblon Des Obeaux by 35 lengths and Djakadam turned his Hennessey form with Many Clouds around by 51 lengths on 9lbs better terms.
If the handicapper puts Coneygree on to 186 then all three horses who filled the places will be higher rated than Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth in his pomp on 180. Looking at the betting for next year’s Gold Cup you could shop around and get 10/1, 16/1 and 25/1 for this year’s 1-2-3, that will seem mighty generous if they emerge with ton-eighty plus rankings.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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