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The novice clerk of the course gives the going as soft this morning with a going stick reading of 6.3.
The last time they raced on the Old Course with a reading of 6.3 was the first day of the meeting last year, when the going was officially good to soft, but Constitution Hill and three subsequent winners that day ran faster than standard time.
Very much a wait and see job, but I won’t be lumping on soft ground performers in the hope that we’re being given accurate info.
I’d already made the same point elsewhere, Alan – a quagmire is far from guaranteed.
6.3 last Tuesday on the Old Course, yet still 6.3 Saturday afternoon at 3.30pm, the exact same reading as Day One last year, same again today and slightly quicker readings on the New Course for later in the week.
The local water table readings remain low to normal too.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’m 30+ miles south of Cheltenham; it’s been lashing down here for the last hour.
Rain forecast on and off all night ‘up there’ but tom looks a drier day.Thanks, Wilts.
“Old: 5.7 New: 6.0 on 13-03-2023 at 15:30”
These are the latest going stick readings – there has now been an easing of the ground.
I will take more notice of a going stick reading than of what a Clerk Of The Course says every day of the week.
CoCs, quite apart from being of varying levels of competence, are under immense pressure to deliver a specific shade of going (“Good” on the Flat, “Good to Soft” over Jumps) to maximise field sizes and that colours every word they utter in my book.
A going stick reading can’t lie – it is what it is and the archive gives comparative data.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Sadly, though the stick cannot lie, the weight/fitness/height of the user affects readings.
It’s a legitimate point, Joe, but I nevertheless find stick readings more reliable than words from CoCs.
Anyway….
“Old: 5.1 New: 5.8 on 14-03-2023 at 09:30”
5.1 is considerably Softer than the 6.3 at the weekend.
The acid test for me now will be the times of the Supreme and Arkle – the electronic clock can’t lie and human corpulence, resemblance or otherwise to a Hobbit, and/or need of the race isn’t a factor in its accuracy!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Sun’s out here.
If it’s the same at Cheltenham it will, likely, dry out the top of the surface. I wonder if it’ll become increasingly tacky, as the afternoon’s races goes on?Thanks, Wilts.
Last year Constitution Hill clocked 3m 44.35s (4.65s faster than standard) on ground described as “Good to Soft” with a last-published going stick reading of 6.3 before racing.
The Arkle was 3m 51.32s (0.68s faster than standard).
I’m expecting both races to be slower – and not just because one was won by Constitution Hill.
But how much slower?
That’s the question.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Supreme: 3m 59.92s – something ten seconds slower than standard?
It’s Soft on the Old Course over hurdles based on that, I’d say.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Fair comment, G as G.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Cotc would appear to have got the going description right – they went off quick to start but seemed to slow it down once they turned away from the stands as they were well grouped all the way round and even coming down the hill.
Race time was slow by 10.69s so considering how it was run you would have to say it is as genuinely close to soft ground as you can get.
Arkle time suggests to me it’s no worse than Good to Soft over fences on the Old Course.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"It was raining by the time they ran the last race (National Hunt Chase) and that was on a course that had already been opened up after 6 races on it which had many stating before that, that the ground was dead or tacky.
Now they are having to cover vunerable areas (take offs and landings) due to overnight temps of -2C, so it could be even more tiring come tomorrow.
“Arkle time suggests to me it’s no worse than Good to Soft over fences on the Old Course.”
Dysart Dynamo was definitely caning it! Is it meant to be dry today? If it’s sunny and warms up a bit perhaps the ground won’t be too bad by the afternoon.
Green – “Is it meant to be dry today?”
Light Rain expected around 2 oclock this afters, but looks ‘patchy’ in nature. (MetO)
Thanks for the local insights, Wilts.
Good to Soft Chases, Soft Hurdles would be my verdict on yesterday based on race times.
Champion Chase time will be interesting!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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