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The Charlie Hall may have been NC’s first chase in Britian, but he was unbeaten in 5 chases in France prior to that (and therefore not a novice, MikkyMo) so you may want to reconsider this "He was inexperienced and the race therefore has no relevance" card you appear to be playing.
By all means oppose Our Vic. All I am saying is that he is a class above tomorrows opposition, his price is wrong, and if it’s a going day, they will all get left behind. The opposition is not in the same league – not by a half-stone at least.
"Im of the opinion that Our Vic is more 10/1 than 4/5 but its all about opinions and it should be a good race."
Why make a statement like that then?
Colin
We’re all entitled to our moments of poetic licence, aren’t we Colin?
That’s what I’ll be claiming if OV gets gubbed tomorrow anyway – it’ll just be a case of gross misinterpretation on everyone’s part, when I said "He’ll hack up".
"Im of the opinion that Our Vic is more 10/1 than 4/5 but its all about opinions and it should be a good race."
Why make a statement like that then?
Colin
I made the statement because I believe he is more 10/1 than 4/5?????
Why else would I make the statement. I didnt want to be rude to someone elses opinion and state the truth which is ‘I would not back Our Vic’ with counterfeit but as you have backed me into a corner there you go. I wouldnt touch him with a barge pole tomorrow. It should be a good race but I dont believe it will be a race that Our Vic will be involved in at the finish.
Please elaborate what was wrong with my statement as the eye rolling doesn’t cut it with me??????
Relax Zoso.
Colin is old and Welsh.
I think that says it all.
OK.. I understand it now.
Grass, you are still awake at this ‘our?
My post crossed it wasn’t aimed at you, I would never, ever, contradict your opinion on a jump race.
Kissy, kissy, kiss, kiss..
Colin
The Charlie Hall may have been NC’s first chase in Britian, but he was unbeaten in 5 chases in France prior to that (and therefore not a novice, MikkyMo) so you may want to reconsider this "He was inexperienced and the race therefore has no relevance" card you appear to be playing.
By all means oppose Our Vic. All I am saying is that he is a class above tomorrows opposition, his price is wrong, and if it’s a going day, they will all get left behind. The opposition is not in the same league – not by a half-stone at least.
GH, I’m not playing any cards – I don’t know where you got that idea from
……but I hardly think winning four runner chases at the age of four at odds of 1/10 in France would give him the necessary experience to take on a proven Grade 1 winner and experienced chaser in Our Vic on his first Chase in Britain – so on reflection a 7L beating is not at all bad IMO.
As Our Vic has never proved he stays this trip on this track (fell in a hole last year) I think he is opposable – though I do agree he is the best horse in the race.
Put to the sword, I would take Neptunes Collognes to out stay Our Vic.
Mike
Mikky, I hate to be a pedant, but Neptune Collonges faced 59 opponents in his 6 chases in France, before he was sold into Nicholls yard.
By the time they met, Our Vic had raced 11 times over fences, and failed to complete 5 times (well, four technically, but he was beaten so far in the other race as makes no diference).
For me, Neptune Collonges had plenty enough experience over fences – certainly enough to take advantage of a handsome 5yo allowance. And it’s not like Our Vic was all-out to win 7L anyway – he absolutely cantered all over the opposition that day, and could have won half the track if he’d wanted.
Whether any of this has any relevance to tomorrows race is a moot point. I just can’t see how OV is not a very short-price in this kind of company, and imo it can only be because the "quick return" theory is skewing the market. Personally, I think this aspect is over-played, and I have a chance to back an odds-on shot (which he should be at these weights) at bigger than 3/1.
Even if OV ultimately runs like a drain, I still think I have a "value" bet. He simply shouldn’t be that price. He’s only a couple of pionts shorter than Simon, ffs, and he’s about 2-stone better than that yoke!!
Col, to answer your question – I’m pissed – hence all this flannel about Our Vic.
GH, I absolutely knew you were going to throw that Stat at me, I just wish I could have backed it somewhere
– the reason I mentioned the four runner race was to try and highlight the uncompetitiveness (is that a word lol) of these races.You know and I know that 4 year old chases in France are about as competitive as Liverpool v Havent A Bloody ClueVille. I entered my cat in one of the races a few weeks ago and I scared all the oppostion off for crying out loud
Regardless of Our Vic’s losses prior to the Charlie Hall, he was a Grade 1 (and Grade 2 for that matter) winner at the time they met, whereas NC was having his first race in Britain over ‘our’ fences, as opposed to the French equivelants.
I agree that all this debate has no reference to tomorrow’s outcome however
But surely, even comparing each of their last runs against Kauto Star ties them in very closesly. Again, I can’t get onto the RP site, but I believe NC was beaten by KS about a dozen lengths, while OV was beaten almost an identical distance last time out. Given what has been said about OV not being as good on his 2nd run, and that he has failed to conclusively prove he stays this trip on this track – have the bookies got it so far wrong afterall?
But as you and DJ have said, perhaps this theory that he isn’t as good on his 2nd appearance has been over egged and he could win in a canter tomorrow.
I’m off to bed now and I won’t be around the weekend to watch the racing (I take my kids out) so if OV hacks up, send me a PM to tell me about it and I will be more than happy to congratulate you
All the best,
Mike
This race has the look of an "upset."
Our Vic could easily run a stinker – esp if testing ground. (though that looks unlikely at time of writing)
Hmm, Neptune Collonges would have a good chance if the rain arrived big stylie.
There is prob a cracking EW bet – maybe Madison DB as prev poster mentioned.
Zip
I don’t think Old Vic will stay this trip. Looking back through his races he has a history of treading water after 3miles. Added to that the fact that he’s not consistant and i’d steer clear of him.
It’s a tough task for Neptune Collonges on his first race back and it’s likely he will imprve for the race. Also he was trounced by Old Vic in October06 with Our Vic giving him about a stone.
Simon is a proven stayer but looking through his form he was running of a mark of 130 6 races ago and he’s now against horses rated 160 ish. He’s improved but i think this could be asking a bit too much.
I rule out Faasel, Billyvodden and Knowhere for a reasons such as poor recent form and not proven at this level/trip etc.
This leaves me with State Of Play and Madison Du Berlais.
If you look back to the Charlie Hall chase you can see State Of Play beat Madison by 13l. It’s possible Madison is improving now he has stepped up in trip though and it could be closer tommorow.
Overall though i think there are less negatives about State Of Play than any others in the race and i’ll predict:
1) State Of Play
2) Madison Du Berlais
3) Our VicThis race has the look of an "upset."
Our Vic could easily run a stinker – esp if testing ground. (though that looks unlikely at time of writing)
Hmm, Neptune Collonges would have a good chance if the rain arrived big stylie.
There is prob a cracking EW bet – maybe Madison DB as prev poster mentioned.
Zip
Couldn’t agree more looks the kind of race if Old Vic wins you could say he was a good thing, Pipes horses running really well in the big ones just now………but he’s as dodgy as a 9 dollar bill….best left alone in my opinion other than sticking him or whatever in a mixed bet for an interest……def not a gambling race
I’m gutted. Pricewise has tipped up Madison Du Berlais.
I wont let that put me off my bet but I was hoping for a drift this morning.
I love these races – inevitably they are a mix of handicappers trying to step up in grade, classy horses with question marks and the odd dark horse.
You’ll all probably think I’m insane but I’m going for Faasel. I know he’s been called a few names but he requires good ground (which he has according to turftrax) and I think the trip will suit him. He was only just short of top class over hurdles and finished 4th in the Arkle. I’ll be looking to burgle some stupid prices on Betfair
I personally like the look of Simon for this race, stays on very well and is a horse that i like. Jumps well and has a decent turn of pace towards the finish line.
The Pipe stable is in very good form at the moment though so i would imagine that Our Vic will put in a good round of jumping and will be there or there abouts, as the betting suggests.
…
– the reason I mentioned the four runner race was to try and highlight the uncompetitiveness (is that a word lol) of these races.
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