Cheltenham 2024 Bets

[Mike007]

Lossiemouth wont beat CH this year. State Man would’ve murdered that lot as well. Racing TV wetting themselves but no need.

[Tizaaards Cider]

So far.

3 doubles.

Jeriko Du Reponet & Irish Point

Dysart Enos & Irish point

Burdett Road & Irish point.

All placed before last weekend. So I’m in varying states of optimism and despair😅

I’m probably going to have another of Minella Indo & Irish point. And that will be that for the main AP selections.

A couple of retirement types involving 3 or 4 long shots in an acca and that will do until the day before the tapes go up.

[stilvi]

These days my betting year pretty much revolves around what happens over these four days. It’s very hard finding winners on a day to day basis, and as a result I am finding myself having less and less bets. At least at the Festival you would hope the vast majority of horses are fit to go. Too often that isn’t the case elsewhere, particularly in the kind of races I have a history of betting in. Fortunately, Cheltenham has been kind over the years, and long may that continue. That said this year’s position going in is a concern with the usual suspects – injuries, changes of mind, and picking the right races that may turn out to be wrong.

Here’s a run through with nothing omitted:-

SUPREME

JERIKO DU REPONET
BALLYBURN NRNB

Jeriko Du Reponet made a promising start, but that Doncaster win would be a stone off what he needs to be competitive, even in a poor year. Henderson will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat. Ballyburn is a horrible bet. He shouldn’t go anywhere near this race, but I don’t want to watch through gritted teeth. I have a nasty suspicion that I will end up losing on both this race and Ballymore. Ballyburn aside, it’s been a mediocre year for the novices.

ARKLE

JPR ONE

I was quite hopeful of landing a big priced each-way on this horse until Marine Nationale flopped. Before that happened I was very hopeful of a very small field, but now all and sundry might want to take their chance. This horse jumps well, but likely he doesn’t have the ability to win.

MARES HURDLE

MARIE’S ROCK (CASHED OUT)

Unfortunately, I cashed out before the Doncaster win. The Management have made a complete mess of things since she won the Relkeel, and she is clearly not the horse of two years ago. Last year’s Mares’ was a total farce with the field allowing the front two to set a dawdle. No way Lossiemouth should be in this race.

NATIONAL HUNT

BROADWAY BOY

This was always the right race. Surely they can’t go Brown Advisory now? Hopefully, they can freshen him up, and book someone like Will Biddick. Shapes like a stayer, and has course form.

BALLYMORE

ENCANTO BRUNO (NR)
BALLYBURN (X3, 1 NRNB)

Encanto Bruno was transferred from John O’Connell to Gavin Cromwell after one setback. He then won a Grade 2 over course and distance, on the bridle. Unfortunately, since then the trainer has made an absolute pig’s ear of things – much worse than O’Connell – and the horse doesn’t have an entry which seems crazy after that initial win.

If Ballyburn runs here, something would have to go badly wrong, for him not to win very easily. Discussed on the race thread. Irrespective of the bets it depresses me that those closest to the horse can’t see the obvious, and seemingly are willing to be influenced by a bunch of chancers who have manipulated the Supreme market.

BROWN ADVISORY

IROKO (NR)
KLASSICAL DREAM (NR)
FLOORING PORTER (NR)

Race hasn’t been too kind with The Nice Guy, and Gerri Colombe lasy year. Iroko wasn’t a great bet as he didn’t see it out at Aintree. Flooring Porter should have at least been entered. Better ground would have suited. I don’t see him staying the longer trip. The biggest miss, despite his age, is Klassical Dream. That was the best round of jumping, by a novice, that I have seen this season. I think he would have had every chance of winning this race.

CROSS COUNTRY

LATENIGHTPASS

Not my usual bag, but this horse seemed to take very well these fences, winning the handicap with plenty in hand. He should take his chance, but you never know where you are with Skelton. The Grand National has been mooted, but no obvious reason why he shouldn’t prep in this.

GRAND ANNUAL

MADARA (NRNB)

Progressive, and won the Leopardstown race will something in hand. Course form, but connections have suggested they favour the Plate. Perhaps the ground may end up being a factor.

BUMPER

LET IT RAIN

With the defection of Jeroboam Nachin, has arguably the best form on offer, winning at Ascot despite the ride. She should run, but again it’s Skelton, which might explain why she is 20/1 when she should be single figures.

TURNERS

FACT TO FILE

Wasn’t impressed first time, but now progressing nicely, and looks the one to beat in a relatively poor renewal.

PERTEMPS

WHITE RHINO

Big chance of a second Festival winner for the stable. Very progressive, and lovely qualification, doing the bare minimum. Also has course form.

RYANAIR

ENVOI ALLEN

Assuming the ground doesn’t get too soft, has an excellent chance of a fourth Festival win, and should be favourite.

STAYERS

GAELIC WARRIOR (NR)
SPRINGWELL BAY (NR)
PAISLEY PARK (NRNB)

Due to the lack of quality this has turned into the bun fight of the Festival. Had they stuck to the original plan very likely Gaelic Warrior would have remained favourite. They could easily have waited another year to go chasing. Mullins at his contrary best. Springwell Bay palpably didn’t stay at Cheltenham, and was taken out, but then appeared to stay at Musselburgh? Never thought I would end up going for a 12yo, but at the prices, Paisley Park has a fair chance of at least placing again. Not often I end up on the sentimental bus.

PLATE

HEART WOOD (NRNB)

Gone up 12lb for bolting up at Leopardstown. That could still be on lenient side.

MARES NOVICE

OLD GROUND (CASHED OUT)
ONLY BY NIGHT
JOYEUSE (NRNB)
GOLDEN ACE

Old Ground is beautifully bred, and bolted in her bumper, but no news at all, so no alternative but to cash out. Only By Night had looked good on the bridle in two bumpers and a novice hurdle, but absolutely bombed at Lingfield. Joyeuse and Golden Ace both promising, but difficult to access relative to the top of the market. Golden Ace would probably be shorter if she had a more high profile trainer. She has to reverse bumper form with Dysart Enos, but that’s not out of the question.

KIM MUIR

PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS (NRNB)

Had jumped and travelled well before departing at the last at Leopardstown. Might well have been outpaced by the winner, but clearly progressive, and this longer trip should suit. JP shouldn’t have trouble booking a decent amateur.

TRIUMPH

KALA CONTI
SIR GINO

Sir Gino has done nothing wrong, and looks the one to beat. Disappointed to hear that Kala Conti might not run as I think she could reverse the Leopardstown form on a quicker surface.

COUNTY

NEMEAN LION (NRNB)

Promise from a poor position in the Greatwood, and should have won the Lanzarote. Loads of entries, and hard to know where he will run.

ALBERT BARTLETT

ENCANTO BRUNO (CASHED OUT)
CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL
GIDLEIGH PARK
JOHNNYWHO (FREE BET)

Chapeau De Soleil’s jumping was woeful last time, and on that evidence hard to believe he will figure. Disappointed with Johnnywho after the initial promise, but he shapes as if he appreciate the longer trip. Gidleigh Park is the big one. Smashing looking horse who has suggested on all his starts that the further he goes, the better he goes. Looked as if he would be done for toe in a muddling race last time, but showed a good attitude to maintain his unbeaten record. Unfortunately, the jock seems to think he has more speed than his pedigree or races would suggest. That said if Ballyburn goes Ballymore, I suspect this horse will go Albert Bartlett.

GOLD CUP

CORACH RAMBLER

Very poor this season, and has to step up massively. Clearly a strong stayer, but so is the favourite, and can he even stay in touch?

MARES CHASE

HALKA DU TABERT (NR)

Very impressive winner, and would surely have had a decent chance in another relatively weak renewal.

MARTIN PIPE

LOWRY’S BAR (NRNB)

I got the same stable’s Pileon added to the markets a few years ago, and did the same with this one. Isn’t qualified for the EBF Final, but should get into this race. Stepping up trip should bring improvement, and seems to handicap himself by just doing enough.

I may add some of the other races closer to the time.

[stilvi]

Obviously, they want to qualify for the EBF with Lowry’s Bar as they are trying to do exactly that tomorrow. I think the Martin Pipe would be the better option assuming they can find a useful jock. The horse has already had four runs, and another one on testing ground followed by a final, which is often a slog, doesn’t sound the greatest plan even before you consider the horse could also get a few more pounds tomorrow.

[stilvi]

Thanks. We had some good discussions.

I see we have coincided on a couple. You are bigger than me on Ballyburn (although I do have 3 bets on him), but I am bigger on Corach Rambler.

I am doing my best on the Ballyburn front, but I appreciate nobody is going to listen to my arguments, however good/logical they might be, it’s more a case of getting it off my chest. I did take another look at his recent Leopardstown win, and it’s definitely his weakest finish. He isn’t pulling away from Slade Steel at the line as all the commentators seem to want to suggest. That I believe is due to him using up too much petrol to hold his early position. Against that level of opposition it didn’t matter, but in a Supreme it could easily be a different story with him ending up vulnerable in the closing stages. I just think it’s madness to try and get away with it at two miles when there is an easy win for the taking at two and a half. A 16/1 near certainty would be very nice.

Despite what I said about Envoi Allen, you have a nice price on Banbridge. I thought I had a nice price for last year’s Turners when he didn’t turn up.

Will they let both Fact To File and Iroko have a go at the Turners? I think it’s the right trip for both.

You must have been pleased with Faivoir today, assuming the handicapper doesn’t bump it up.

Good luck.

[stilvi]

(Lowry’s Bar)

The definition of a complete mess. One race too many on bad ground, and season probably wrecked. Thank goodness for NRNB.

[MarkTT]

I agree with you on Ballyburn, Stilvi.

[stilvi]

Markets are seemingly all over him running in the Supreme which I find very strange (a) because it would be a shockingly bad decision for all the reasons I have given, and (b) because according to what we have been told a decision wouldn’t be made for several weeks. Are bookmakers just wanting to give the impression that he is heading for the option that suits them?

[MarkTT]

Lots of people will be putting him in Festival multiples now, with Ruby and the Paddy Power lot saying he should be running in the Supreme

There’s also a chance that Henderson is being bullish about the chances of JDR in the Supreme, which might sway McManus in to running MP in the Baring Bingham
McManus has several promising novices a few months ago but some haven’t run since and others are injured

[Venture to Cognac]

Yeah Stilvi, proper good discussions back in the day.

Good to see a crossover of a few between us. I put Ballyburn up before his debut last year. I don’t watch too many PTP’s, but had seen his and was really impressed. I made a mess of it after that though. Bet him last March for Baring Bingham, and Albert Bartlett, but not Supreme. Happy with the 16’s for BB, but it’s not that big a bet, and I’ll also definitely lay my stake back, so even if he goes BB, I’d definitely like it to have been a fancier bet.

As for Corach Rambler, that’s a tough one for me. Put him up for this years Gold Cup at start of last season, watched him win The Ultima for a second time, and still didn’t take the 66’s, 100’s. Happy with the 25’s, but still calling myself a few names.

As for Banbridge, yeah delighted with price. I always put up top price that I get, but he’s definitely more of a 16’s shot for me. A real favourite of mine. Been banging on about him since early last season (thought he’d be one for NH Chase), but he’s turned out even better than expected. He’s my main fancy at this stage, and certainly my biggest bet of the festival. Laid my stake back on him now, which just made sense.

I’d much prefer Fact To File in Turners than Iroko, after that setback. Still can’t see Iroko running, but stuck with him now. As for Faivoir, that was an excellent run Saturday, but just a bit concerned that Skelton wouldn’t usually show his hand like that with a County Horse.

I like your Kim Muir shout. I usually have a strong Kim Muir fancy a way out, and one of my favourite races of the week. Keen on Midnight Our Fred, but he needs another big run to get his mark up, and times runnning out. Percival looks a good shout at this stage to me. Could easily see me joining you in that one too.

Good luck

[stilvi]

16/1 For Ballyburn should have been a great price. I have been following racing for a very long time, and even though we are dealing with Mullins, who has all sorts of history, I don’t think I have been more puzzled by a pending decision. I normally can at least see both sides of an argument, but in this case there is nothing sensible to support running him in a Supreme. He would be better off in an Alberrt Bartlett. It’s a shame the owner appears to have no desire to get involved. That despite the mess Mullins made last season in sending over the whole team for the Festival Bumper, bar his best bumper horse. Had the owner just said at the start of the season this is a horse for 2m4f+ novice hurdles, and I want him to be aimed at the Ballymore, none of this nonsense would have occured.

Although, bar Iroko, I wouldn’t be too hard on my bets, I suspect the way things are going I am not going to have many runners. That will mean trying to claw back quite a negative. Not impossible, but not a good situation. Had a quick scan at the Racing Post this morning and Skelton makes no mention of Latenightpass. I think it’s a mistake to just target the National. He took so well to the Cross Country course I think he could offset the perceived class advantage of some of those at the top end of the market. I don’t think he will have any such obvious advantage in a National. In discussing his team, Cromwell said that Only By Night probably wouldn’t go, which is no real surprise, but he gave no mention to Perceval Legallois. Given the connections that might not be a surprise either. I hope Iroko being left in the Turner’s doesn’t complicate matters with Fact To File. Why would you replace a favourite with a horse who hasn’t run since the start of the season? I don’t know why they bothered with the Iroko entry? He could easily have been saved for one of the other Festivals.

[TakeYourTime]

Supreme
No Flies On Him 33s e/w.

Champion Hurdle
Zanahiyr 50s e/w NRNB (looks unlikely to run).

Champion Bumper
Argento Boy 25s e/w.

Mares Novice
Dysart Enos 10s win.

Hunters
Premier Magic 12s win.

Will be looking at handicaps this week.

[vikingflagship]

From sporting life Blazing Khal will miss the Cheltenham Festival having suffered a fibrillating heart when defending his Boyne Hurdle crown – with a question mark over whether he will race again.

And Broadway Boy last run had issues was suffering from stomach ulcers

VF x

[stilvi]

Let It Rain now very unlikely to run in the Bumper. I am great believer in that as a punter luck never evens out. You are either lucky or unlucky. It’s not like a series of coin tosses. This year didn’t look that good before this happened.

[Gingertipster]

I’m a great believer in…
What the majority of people believe is luck – simply isn’t.

Value Is Everything

[stilvi]

I am already beginning to realise why I left last time.

You immediately jumped on a thread that I returned on having had no part of it before now this ridiculous statement. It looks like you are trolling, and can’t help yourself.

If you back a horse that gets injured of course it’s bad luck. Or do you think somehow the punter should know that’s going to happen?

[Gingertipster]

I thought I’d welcomed you back, Stilvi.
Maybe it is because I quite enjoy having my own forthright opinions challenged that I challenged yours. Sorry if you don’t like it, but this is a “discussion forum” and I have the opposite opinion to yours and therefore expressed it. That’s all.

To answer your question.
I would not describe it as “bad luck” when a horse a punter has backed gets injured.

ie Before a punter backs ante-post he / she should look at the horse’s record in every way.

eg If lining up, in my opinion L’Homme Presse has the best chance of all the British runners in this year’s Gold Cup. when betting ante-post (without NRNB) the punter has to take account the likelihood of getting there (sadly, including injury)… And L’Homme Presse had been off the course for a long time prior to his latest start. ie Fact is punters can identify horses who have a greater probability of getting there on the day. Just the same as identifying a horse who has a lesser chance of acting on the likely going. By looking at goings at the meeting of previous years. That’s not to say I never back a horse ante-post who has a greater probability of getting injured, just that I allow for it when assessing whether a price is worth taking.

Of course a horse who has not been injured before could be injured for the first time; it’s just that it has a lesser probability of doing so. Instead of thinking of it as “bad luck”, I think of it as “probabilities”…ie I accept it as being one of the smaller percentage of previously sound horses that sometimes gets injured.

I am sure that when L’Homme Presse runs in the Ascot chase: If he loses by say a couple of lengths and has given away a lot of ground by jumping left-handed… many punters who’ve backed L’Homme Presse will believe it’s “bad luck”. But had they looked up the horse’s form they’d see he often jumps to the left when racing right handed. Something that should be taken into account when placing a bet.

A punter might think he / she has had “bad luck” if the trainer of their horse / bet is in very poor form going into Cheltenham and its main rival is in great form… But often trainers are in good and bad form at the same time each year. So when backing a horse ante-post this probability should also be taken into account when assessing whether the odds were worth taking in the first place.

It’s the same with any aspect of form, it is imo all about probabilities.

ie imo There are many things that might appear “bad luck” when all they are to me is “probabilities”.

Maybe the majority of punters are not so interested as I am in form, or are not particularly interested in making a profit… And that’s fine. Racing / betting should be enjoyed and is rightly enjoyed many ways – not just mine. But if this is the case punters should expect “probabilities” / what you describe as “luck” to go against them. This is what I meant by “What the majority of people believe is luck – simply isn’t”.

Value Is Everything

[Author]

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