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Only 363 days or so to go to the festival again so any ante post bets my 3 so far are below
ALPHA DES OBEAUX 8/1 RSA Chase
With no Thistlecrack to contend with here i think this world hurdle runner up can take RSA glory he proven on all types of ground as well and his built for chasing noting in Albert bartlett stood out as a top 3m chaser and for me he can win RSA
YORKHILL 5/1 To win arkle
Very classy winner of neptune put a few dodgy jumps in so going over fences is best option i think he get 3m that is what Mullins saw in him at first said it in stable tour in weekender.But he showed a lot of pace in neptune that drop back in trip be no problem for him
ALTIOR 8/1 To win Champion hurdle
Min ran well and think he improve next year but Altior was very good in supreme not just that he jumps and travel well he also was very strong at finish. went away in last 100 yards with doubts over Faugheen and Annie Power will go world hurdle no Thistlecrack there.ALTIOR can take champion hurdle.
I’d be interested in Battleford for the novice events Darren, but I’m steering clear until the autumn at the earliest, bar one lucky 31 I’ll put on after The National.
I’m done in lol
Only 363 days or so to go to the festival again so any ante post bets my 3 so far are below
ALPHA DES OBEAUX 8/1 RSA Chase
With no Thistlecrack to contend with here i think this world hurdle runner up can take RSA glory he proven on all types of ground as well and his built for chasing noting in Albert bartlett stood out as a top 3m chaser and for me he can win RSA
YORKHILL 5/1 To win arkle
Very classy winner of neptune put a few dodgy jumps in so going over fences is best option i think he get 3m that is what Mullins saw in him at first said it in stable tour in weekender.But he showed a lot of pace in neptune that drop back in trip be no problem for him
ALTIOR 8/1 To win Champion hurdle
Min ran well and think he improve next year but Altior was very good in supreme not just that he jumps and travel well he also was very strong at finish. went away in last 100 yards with doubts over Faugheen and Annie Power will go world hurdle no Thistlecrack there.ALTIOR can take champion hurdle.
I have to agree with all the above Darren.I have done the ‘Alpha des Obeaux’ RSA 8/1 ‘Thistlecrack’ 10/1 Gold cup double pal.
00Seven will improve and looks tailor made for jumping the larger obstacles.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Bob i think Battleford looks a stayer to me maybe a albert bartlett type
And thank you for your posts gord and nath i think ooseven do better over fences also like DIFFERENT GRAVEY as well looks built for fences
I backed two myself when the markets open, thistlecrack at 10s and Alpha des obeaux at 8s. couldn’t help myself. That’ll do for 6months atleast
Just to let you know guys(in case you didn’t already) Willie Mullins doesn’t win the Albert Bartlett even with seven darts this year he couldn’t manage it!!
has mouse morris stated that alpha des obeux will definitely go chasing next season??
Yeah a few weeks back he said something along the lines of them giving the horse the rest of this year over hurdles and then next season he’s definitely chasing and should improve for it as he’s a big old fashioned chasing type(or words to that effect)
Another one here for Alpha Des Obeaux in the RSA Chase at 8-1. He’s sure to go chasing next season and ran well enough in the World Hurdle to show he can go to the top over fences.
Also Sizing John for me if he steps up in trip for the Ryanair at 20-1, he will finally avoid Douvan and if Vautour runs in the Gold Cup the Ryanair will be wide open.
Finally Altior in the Champion Hurdle at 8-1, if he continues to improve he is sure to be a big player.
Agree with Altior @ 8/1 is far too big. Massively impressive on Tuesday and probably more improvement to come. If I were a bookmaker I’d only be offering 9/2. Also like Yanworth at the prices, but it’s too soon to be backing two. 12/1 Yorkhill would look tempting if knowing he’d turn up, but as with all of the millions of Mullins horses… prices take in to account the possibility/probability of not running.
Value Is EverythingVautour has potential to be a Gold Cup contender if settling better with age. Reading between the lines, I believe the main reason for his defection this year is Mullins knows he wasn’t showing the restraint needed at home to be a Gold Cup horse. Considering all the question marks about him 8/1 doesn’t look value at this stage. Djakadam seems to have found his level, that level might be good enough one year. I’d have loved to see Cue Card winning it, such a shame he fell, but Don Cossack is the greater stayer and imo would’ve won anyway. Cue Card will be 11 next year and most horses are on the downgrade by then. Don Poli wasn’t given the best of rides considering he’s a stayer, seemingly ridden for third. Would need an attacking ride unless it turns testing on the day. Will Coneygree be able to come back as good if not better than ever? Will Valseur Lido be given a chance? Not only have you got the trainer messing around with his horses, but also the owner. What of the novices? Douvan is an exceptional novice, but can’t see him staying. Blacklion is a corageous little thing, but won what turned out to be a substandard RSA. Shaneshill keeps finding one too good at the Festival and don’t see why he’ll go one better in the big one. Ill-fated No More Heroes would’ve won had he not gone wrong on the run-in and More Of That ran a remarkable race considering broke blood vessels. If any RSA horse is going to win the Gold Cup think it’ll be the latter, 40/1 is tempting but want to at least see him entered up to run next season before betting. At 50/1, same owner’s 4 mile winner Minella Rocco wouldn’t be out of a soft ground Gold Cup, particularly if jumping better – but doesn’t really look fast enough in normal conditions. JLT fell apart, Zabana unseated and Outlander lost all chance before the start. Garde La Victoire didn’t race prominently and fell, other market principle Bristol De Mai didn’t jump like we know he can, Lami Serge appeared not to stay. So Black Hercules has undoubted potential to improve at 3m2f, but needs to find a lot and will he run in the Gold Cup? Thistlecrack is the joker in the pack. If taking to fences obviously has a chance, he’s one of the best staying hurdlers we’ve ever seen. However, hurdles and fences are different. For a horse to progress over fences in one year enough to win an average Gold Cup isn’t easy and Don Cossack looks an above average winner. In with every chance of winning the King George, staying on when coming down. Won this year’s Gold Cup by further than Coneygree and without his rider needing to go for everything. He’s got to get there again and will be 10 years old next year, so it’s not a given he’ll be as good… However, if Don Cossack runs to that form again it’s odds-on it’ll be good enough to win. Some bookmakers make him 5/2 for a repeat, wouldn’t take that, I’d even offer 7/2 myself. But he’s top priced 6/1. Get on! Must surely have a better than 14% chance?!!!
Value Is EverythingBuveur d’Air at 16-1 for the Arkle (each-way). Gorgeous stamp of a horse and looks like a typical Henderson chaser who was only biding his time over hurdles.
Alpha des Obeaux at 8-1 for the RSA Chase. Has been discussed above.Don Cossack (6-1) and Thistlecrack (10-1) for the Gold Cup. Again, already discussed above.
I’ll be waiting to see what Alan King decides to do with Yanworth next season and backing him accordingly. The stable is currently badly out of form and I’m sure that the horse is a lot better than he showed in the Neptune last week.
As for the Mullins horses, it’s probably best to wait until layers start offering odds to win any race at the meeting or going NRNB before getting involved. There’s been money for Yorkhill in the Arkle and he’d take all the beating if he runs (which is why I’ve only backed Buveur d’Air each-way), but it’s impossible to back any horse from Closutton for a specific race with confidence.
betfair sportsbook have to win any race, Gladiateur
Black Hercules 5’s
Yorkhill 7/4Skybet win any race
Thistlecrack 6/4
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Thanks, Nathan. Those all look reasonable enough prices- Black Hercules would have a favourite’s chance in a Vautour-less Ryanair, for example.
I’m waiting for the even money Vautour and 1-2 Douvan to come up.
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