- This topic has 31 replies, 17 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
I know the grand Annual not run yet but 2014 be over soon but after this year what your early thoughts for next year here are some of mine.
CHAMPAGNE FEVER 20/1 Gold cup
This horse been running over 2ms for last 3 festivals he wants much further than that and 3m2 trip will be perfect for him.Bobs Worth too old also the 1st 3 today will not be in the 1st next year.
MORE OF THAT 4/1 To win World hurdle
If he stays over hurdles and not sent chasing he can add more wins in this race.Beaten horses behind him either go chasing next year.
Annie Power and RULE THE WORLD will go that route.Other horses behind him can’t see them turning form around.CALIPTO 33/1 and THE NEW ONE 6/1 champion hurdle
CALIPTO like THE NEW ONE were both unlucky this week and see them both making progress next year i like The New One more but not rule out CALIPTO.
Agree with you on Champagne darren,
I’ve backed him at 20s to fingers crossed he stays.
I’ve gone in on another one of Mullins Briar Hill for the World Hurdle at 12s.
I like the look of Taquin Du Seuil in the Ryanair at 10/1 to Connections know how to win this race having had Albertas Run win in the past. Has to be a possibility Dynaste will go for the Gold Cup which would make life easier although on the flip side Cue Card isn’t in the Ryanair betting as of yet if he didn’t stay on his first few runs next term I wouldn’t want to oppose him.
Bobs Worth to regain the Gold Cup. He’s run at least a stone below form today; with none of this year’s staying novices looking much cop, I’m willing to give him another chance at 10s.
http://imageshack.com/a/img542/3923/df1y.png
I managed to win about £2k this year at Cheltenham so i decided to re-invest 25% of that in some antepost fancies. I’ll also be adding more to these bets each week or so by the odd £100 here and there until i have some big returns possible.
Reasoning:
The New One – badly hampered, gained many lengths from the last flight to the finish line and would probably have been in front in another few hundred yards. The firmish ground didn’t play to his strengths either. That ground massively favoured My Tent Or Yours who is a speedier horse but seems to be another Harchibald type who travels well but finds little. I wouldn’t fancy him in a battle.
In addition to that we have now sadly lost Our Connor who made up roughly ~15% of this years Champion Hurdle book on price. Also Hurricane Fly who made up ~25% of the champion hurdle book on price this year is very unlikely to be able to reclaim the crown now at his age.
What does The New One have to beat next year?
My Tent Or Yours – If any year was going to be his year this would have been it. The ground came ideal and The New One lost many lengths due to no fault of his own. In my opinion My Tent is a bridle horse and Cheltenhams hill doesn’t suit him. I think if it’s genuine good to soft or soft next he will flounder up the hill.
Hurricane Fly – fantastic horse, loads of respect for his achievements but quite simply age catches up to everyone.
Vautour – very impressive in the supreme, but as we find season after season there is a big gap between novice races and the older generation. There’s also the chance he takes up novice chases next season and he’s far to short a price too consider backing at this point.
Jezki – He is pretty solid to be fair. I cant find many chinks with him. I dont need to though because I’m getting 6/1 about The New One when the market should be about 7/4 The New One, 5/2 Jezki, 9/2 MTOY, 7/1 bar
It is huge value at the moment at 6/1 i think. If it hadn’t got hampered i believe it would have won going away by 3L+ and won be as short as 2/1 now.
Providing it doesn’t get injured i’d be happy to build a position at 6/1 for say £2500/£15000 over the next few weeks and fully expect to be able to lay my £2500 off on Betfair at something like 6/4 come march.
Now for the Gold Cup but just a quick summary because i’ve spent far too long on this post already
Taquin Du Seuil – The first thing to say is that this years Gold Cup was very weak. There were 6+ horses in with a chance over the last fence and it looks average form. I don’t fancy any of this years top 3 to place next year and they are definitely vulnerable to an improver. I didn’t back Taquin this year because i believed him to be more of a stayer and want softer ground. What he did impressed me. I think with another year of development he will be very suited to the gold cup trip. (Jonjo has said in the past he sees him as a gold cup horse also) This means with the weakness in the current Gold Cup division he will likely be aimed at some 3m races next season. 25/1 at the moment is a very big price about this improving 7 year old.
Congratulations on a very successful Cheltenham this year Jamsyn. I turned a bad first two days, and a break even third day, around on the last day, mostly due to Lord Windermere at 33s, although my winning were in hundreds nowhere near your £2k…….well done.
I couldn’t agree more with you on The New One, he was the main reason for me starting with a whacking loss on day 1, I think he was so unlucky and if he avoids injuries and keeps well I don’t see anything around that can beat him.
I also like your chances on Taquin Du Seuil, he shows promise but I had always thought that Dynaste was a Gold Cup Horse in the making before he seemed to lose his way. Whatever the problem was, Pipe seems to have sorted it and he looked magnificent winning the Ryanair. The way he made up good ground at the end to take command suggests to me he will be even better over the GC distance. I think he will be aimed at the GC next year and 20/1 with Sky and Racebets is huge in my opinion. I don’t normally bet this far ahead of anything, but I’m tempted to put a few quid on him.
Good luck with your bets, that would be some return.
Taquin Du Seuil – The first thing to say is that this years Gold Cup was very weak. There were 6+ horses in with a chance over the last fence and it looks average form. I don’t fancy any of this years top 3 to place next year and they are definitely vulnerable to an improver. I didn’t back Taquin this year because i believed him to be more of a stayer and want softer ground. What he did impressed me. I think with another year of development he will be very suited to the gold cup trip. (Jonjo has said in the past he sees him as a gold cup horse also) This means with the weakness in the current Gold Cup division he will likely be aimed at some 3m races next season. 25/1 at the moment is a very big price about this improving 7 year old.
This is pretty sound reasoning in my opinion and I have followed you in. I have added Djakadam who appeared to be travelling very strongly when he came down. It was not as if he had turned in a poor round of jumping and if anything I would be more confident of him getting the Gold Cup trip than the O’Neill horse.
Holywell
at 33/1 is the e/w Ante-Post bet for next years Gold Cup,there’s no doubting this fellows stamina,the owners want him there,he’s got the ‘Charter Party’ profile and is trained by a Master of readying one for the big one.
Taquin de Seuil
would be going the Ryanair route if he was mine as he has stamina limitations,Class horse that he is. There’s not a pound between them in my book.
Looks like Betvictor got bitten a few times too many. Before the end of last year’s festival, they were offering NRFB. Not this time, so I don’t be playing seriously until that sort of offer appears or the target for a fancied horse is in no doubt.
The armoury Mullins has is also making things tough for long range ante post players.
But I’m in on Taquin de Seul for the Gold Cup as he should be 10 our 12 points shorter, and yet it seems his most likely target.
Another who appeals is MTOY for the Arkle. His hurdling technique has always been awkward and he should be seen to much better effect over fences. Also, he’s had two attempts now at winning hurdle races at the Festival…time to move on, I think.
I’ve added Jezki as he is almost certain to defend his crown, and TNO’s weak spot, his hurdling, shows no sign of improving. I suspect too that he just might be stepped up to 3 miles.
The way Nigel Twiston-Davies spoke about The New One’s defeat sounded like he was very determined to avenge it in the Champion Hurdle next year. I would be shocked if this wasn’t the plan as IMO he would have won (maybe talking through my pocket!) if he was not hampered by the ill-fated Our Conor. Absolutely stormed up the hill and has a fantastic blend of speed and stamina. Wouldn’t be rushing to take 6/1 at this stage without a NRNB concession, who knows how good Un De Sceaux will be this time next year?
Great shout on Holywell for the Gold Cup, TAPK – really liking that one. The division looks like a marshmallow pit right now.
He might be able to pinch a Hennessy or Scottish National en route as well.
The Ante-Post King
Wrote:
Taquin de Seuil would be going the Ryanair route if he was mine as he has stamina limitations,Class horse that he is. There’s not a pound between them in my book.
I’m not sure why you think Taquin has stamina limitations. He has great form over 2m4f on heavy ground. Proper stamina sapping ground. He powered up the hill after 2m4f at cheltenham. I think a stamina test will suit him much better than 2m4f. If you watch him in soft/heavy ground races he really comes into his own at the end of races with his relentless galloping. Also at cheltenham he was 4L off the leaders on the home turn and just kept galloping, distance will suit him, as will softer ground.
Some quotes:
O’Neill said: “We’ve always believed in him since we’ve had him. It’s been frustrating a little bit this season because the races haven’t been run at any pace.
“Today they went a good gallop which suited him.
“I need to thank JP (McManus) for letting Tony off to ride him for us and his horse ran a blinder, but we needed all of AP today.
“I was worried about the ground but they put a bit of water on last night.
“He’s got a long stride, but AP knows him well and if he’d asked him for a couple of big leaps he’d have landed on top of them, he was clever as they were going a fair gallop.
“It should ease the pain in AP’s back (after a fall on Wednesday).
“We believe he’s got a lot of speed and we did try him over two miles.
“
Hopefully he’ll step up to the Gold Cup trip now
– you’ve got nothing if you haven’t got dreams in this game.”
O’Neill said: "It was very kind of JP to offer us AP, but I’m sure he might have wanted to change his mind from the second-last – we appreciate it.
"I’d say AP makes all the difference. I was full of confidence when JP said he could ride and everything went according to plan.
"
I’ve always liked this horse and he’s one for the future – hopefully he can step up on be a Gold Cup horse
."
He deserves credit for being the only one held up to play a part at the business end, though, and he has some engine as he wasn´t always foot perfect on this ground. This also advertises his game attitude, and
he´s likely to be campaigned with the Gold Cup in mind next term
. He was given an ante-post quote of 25-1 for that.
Jonjo O´Neill, trainer of Taquin Du Seuil: I did try him over two miles at Sandown, AP said afterwards we probably didn´t do the right things with him that day.
He is proven at this trip and hopefully he´ll step up to the Gold Cup trip. He won over a mile seven on the Flat in France
, you don´t know until you run them but if he does get the trip he is a proper horse.
The Ante-Post King wrote:
Taquin de Seuil would be going the Ryanair route if he was mine as he has stamina limitations,Class horse that he is. There’s not a pound between them in my book.
Well done Jamsym,I did write that……Anything to add?
Struggling with the quote button
My thoughts are above.
Also Holywell is a solid handicapper, it’s possible he can win some good races next season but i think it’s a bit of a stretch to put him in the same class/promise section as Taquin du Seuil. it should be evident the stable thinks this too seen as though i can find multiple quotes of Taquin du Seuil being aimed at the Gold Cup next year and you’d probably struggle to find one of Holywell being aimed at it
Struggling with the quote button
My thoughts are above.
Also Holywell is a solid handicapper, it’s possible he can win some good races next season but i think it’s a bit of a stretch to put him in the same class/promise section as Taquin du Seuil. it should be evident the stable thinks this too seen as though i can find multiple quotes of Taquin du Seuil being aimed at the Gold Cup next year and you’d probably struggle to find one of Holywell being aimed at it
Take it from me there’s no better Trainer out there at misleading the public,well maybe Willie Mullins.I know how good
Taquin de Seuil
is but the reason he never ran in the RSA which is the obvious Gold cup route was because he felt the 3m trip would stretch him.’Jewson’ winners dont win Gold Cups but handicappers do,
Cool Ground
,
Cool Dawn
,
Charter Party
,and most recently
Synchronised
,thorough Stayers win Gold cups too and ‘Taquin’ isn’t one of them.Funnily enough one of my eyecatchers of the festival,
Vaniteux
shares the same sire as
Taquin de seuil
in ‘Voix du Nord’ and he looks an Arkle sort to me.The sprinter
Marchand d’or
is also related to ‘Taquin’ so stamina is not in his genes.
Struggling with the quote button
My thoughts are above.
Also Holywell is a solid handicapper, it’s possible he can win some good races next season but i think it’s a bit of a stretch to put him in the same class/promise section as Taquin du Seuil. it should be evident the stable thinks this too seen as though i can find multiple quotes of Taquin du Seuil being aimed at the Gold Cup next year and you’d probably struggle to find one of Holywell being aimed at it
‘Jewson’ winners dont win Gold Cups but handicappers do,
Kind of a small sample size to be judging from really. 05-10 it was called the Jewson and 11-14 the JLT. Some stats and trends can be useful but a lot of them are hugely flawed by ridiculous sample size issues. It’s akin to us tossing a coin 3 times and it landing on heads. Therefore we conclude only heads can win this cointoss in the future. Everything needs to be taken on face value.
- Total Posts 764
I’m strongly with Gord on this one regarding Taquin, he’s definitely not a stayer and would struggle to get home in the Gold Cup, this horse in my opinion is all about speed and has a great turn of foot, it’s just that some people mistake his ability to maintain his speed for staying power (which is certainly isn’t). He’s an ideal Ryanair horse in my mind.
The New One at 6/1 for next years Champion Hurdle is an absolute steal.
He’s worth a pop Jamsym. The way he travelled into the straight in the 3 miler, was a carbon copy of the way he travelled into the straight in The Pertemps………trained to the absolute minute.
I’d agree that Taquin is a more obvious contender, but I think the options for Holywell will be limited next season, with a potential campaign geared towards Aintree as well as Cheltenham. I put him up as a contender for both the 3 miler, and The Scottish National this year, and I still wouldn’t rule out Ayr, even with the hike. Fairyhouse would certainly be an alternative as well. So it may be with another potential weight rise to follow, then The Gold Cup may very well be on the agenda, with opportunities limited.
I bet him for The 2015 Gold Cup after, and to be honest was a bit disappointed with the 50’s and 66’s offered, but took it anyway, thought it was a taking performance on Tuesday.
It’s a long old time between now and Cheltenham 2015, but I think he’ll take the GC route anyway, as I said, worth a pop.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.