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I’d drop you a PM to that effect Grassy but I think I’m preaching to the converted
Had a big saver on Quevega as well. Presume you’ve re-invested for next years Champion on The Hurricane already?
I think SC will be having sleepless nights from now until Gold Cup day next year. We always have the same every year about what the ground is going to be and if they’re going to water or not. Next year the pressure will really be on to get it right. I can imagine the Denman camp wanting the taps turned on and the Kauto Star camp wanting to keep them off. Strange position for them both to be in the same stable, as I’m sure PN would give them advice on what to do if either of the horses wasn’t trained by him. Civil war to break out next year anyone?
I think it was Meade (Or Mullins quoting Meade) who said that he couldn’t believe how easily Hurricane Fly went away from Go Native after the last when they met.
Given that Go Native won the Supreme fairly comfortably and Quevega mullered a 150 rated horse (Who ran her race) 14 lengths boosting the French 4yo form you’ve got to rate Hurricane Fly around mid 160’s already. With another year on his back he’s definitely got a very good chance and would be my fancy at this stage.
Binocular will never win the Champion in my opinion.
If Exotic Dancer can retain this year’s form, what price for the Ryanair? Anyone seen any prices?
Surely connections won’t consider taking on the Nicholls pair again?
Binocular will never win the Champion in my opinion.
He could, but only in a year worse than this one, God help us. And as we seem to be in a cycle where each winner is a little bit worse than the previous……………lump on for 2010, says I
Yes Sublimity who should be in his prime about now, showed us how good the previous winners were
I respect Hurricane Fly but the truth of the matter is he hasn’t proved himeslf in the top rank. IMO Binocular was subject to too much he won’t get up the hilly crap. Nicky Henderson and AP listened and it cost them the race.
They won’t make the same mistake again and if Celestial Halo and co can take the sting out of binoculars tail there’s a very good chance Hurricane Fly will get a taste of the same medicine.
My hope is they will both go to Cheltenham next year unbeaten between now and then. It will make for a lot of good debate with people sensible enough not to come away with silly remarks like Binocular will never win a CH. The horse is only 5 yeras old, lost by under a length and has loads of opporunity to improve into a real champion.
I agree, I certainly have reservations about Hurricane Fly. Formlines with novice hurdlers just don’t hold true a lot of the time – they’re so hit and miss.
Immediately after the Supreme, people were talking along the lines of ‘HF destroyed Go Native at Christmas time, would’ve walked in here …. ‘ which may well have been the case, but certainly not a given. The 2nd horse Medermit (or ‘Merry Mint’ as Ted Walsh bizarrely kept calling him) got destroyed by a similar distance earlier in the year by a Nicholls horse who’s amounted to the square root of nowt.
I’d love to be proven wrong, he could be absolutely outstanding. I’d just like to see him against the best novices again (the likes of Go Native who’ve obviously improved), much less the best in the open division. 6/1 this time next year could look ridiculous from either perspective
Dont kid yourselves that Hurricane fly isn"t the best 2m hurdler around!
Go Native travelled like a dream at Leopardstown, but the Hurricane blew
him away with ease and he wouldn"t be entered for a Group 1 flat race
if connections didn"t think he could hold his own! I like the idea that he can stay that bit further than just 2m aswell, bodes well for when you need
to get up that hill, especially when you have Celestial Halo laying it down!
Oh those blinkered Binocular fans that just couldn"t see it! Yes a bit of 10/1 in July will do me! there is a bit of 7/1 around now mind! Looks big
when he goes off 4/7fav next march! Roll on the Hurricane season!If life was only so simple GW. I have seen so many flashy Hurricane Fly types and hoped: "This is the one". It would be great to think he is so good that he could skip round Cheltenham and leave Binocular and co struugling in his wake. Right now that is no more than a wish and a prayer on your part and anyone else who thinks this horse is some kind of world beater. I backed him myself at Cheltenham but not because I thought he could walk on water but because I knew Cousin Vinny couldn’t.
You obviously have no idea the difference between winning a novice hurdle in Ireland and even being able to go the pace in the Champion Hurdle are a million miles apart.
Look at Jered for example. In may peoples eyes he was a big fancy for the Champion hurdle at the end of last season. He slaughtered some good sorts as a novice yet couldn’t get a blow in come the big one.
Binocular is a different type of horse than Hurricane Fly. Less flash and more class IMO.
All the talk is how Hurricane fly beat Go Native and how he in turn won the Supreme. I think you have to look a bit deeper than that before placing your hard earned cash with your favourite bookie.
Many horses are let down and go racing short of work pre Cheltenham, as part of their build up to get straight for the big day. They can in turn make other horses look much better than they actually are. One things for sure Go Native was spot on come the big day and took to Cheltenham like a duck to water. He was very impressive but there is no guarantee Hurricane Fly would have beat him again and if he had the question would have to be asked. Would he have beaten him so easily as before? I think not!!!!
I suspect Go Native wasn’t anywhere near his peak at Leaportstown or at Naas for the matter. When 2nd to Hurrricane Fly the two horses who finished just behind him beaten 3/4 and 3/4 have shown deparate form since. If they had taken Go Native on at Cheltenham I doubt if either would have finished in the same parish as him. He is much much better than he looked in that race.
Looking at it from that point of view Hurricane Fly to date has beaten Cheltenham flop Cousiun Vinny getting wieght and a most certainly under par Go Native.
He has won impressively but really he has beat nothing. He will find Go Native a different prospect should he meet him again anytime soon and has more than a few rungs to climb to get to the top. He may well find Binocular and Co.are much higher up the ladder than he can reach.
A fine piece of writing there Fist, most accurate and correct! I just get the feeling this Hurricane is going to cause some havoc!
How do you come to the conclusion Go Native was under par? Complete tosh. He was on the bridle coming to the last, didn’t jump it that well and then got left for dead.
Hurricane Fly has all the attributes you would expect of a champion hurdler; speed, stamina, class, decent hurdler and a good attitude. Being a Montjeu would be a concern though as they do seem to go off the boil as they get older. He is a genuine contender, whether he will fulfil his potential is another.
I dont agree so much that Montjeus go off the boil as they get older, however IMO once they are out of their 3yo season their quirks become that bit more apparent of level weights in older company, and their general reliance on a fast pace will see them struggle on occasion.
I wouldnt have any worry whatsoever about Hurricane Fly going off the boil, however IMO he still has a bit to prove to justify his current price in the champ hurdle market. Noel Meade is quite keen to re- engage HF with Go Native on better ground and with (according to meade) Go Native fully fired up this time. I would like to see that before feeling an idea of how good HF is.
At the same time however I dont really think Go Native achieved that much in solid form terms by winning the supreme novice as IMO most of the more serious looking contenders threw their chance away by chasing the pace, and GN doesn’t stand out as oozing class IMO.
As good as HF has looked this season he hasnt IMO done enough to justify his current price in the Champ Hurdle Market and surely that price can only stand to hold or drift with his next performance. It would be ridiculous with some of the class in the champ hurdle division if HF were to shorten any further having not yet faced any of the Champ Hurdle division as yet.
Class is relative.
This years Champion Hurdle field, in class/ratings terms, is strictly mid-160’s level. There is no standout (regardless of what Fists/Aristo thinsk about Binocular), and the leap from top-class novice to Champion Hurdler, isn’t as pronounced as it might be.
A typical Supreme winner would have something in the order of a stone of improvement to make, to make an impact in open company the following season. If said Supreme winner improved 20lbs, then he would almost certainly be a contender for Championship events.
Go Native is a "typical Supreme winner" – the form of the race has a pretty solid feel, the race was entirely representative, but there was no ‘all-star’ performance. For my money, Hurricane Fly is patently a better horse than Go Native (anyone suggesting GN was undercooked for Leopardstown is grasping at fresh-air).
I would suggest Hurricane Fly needs to make no more than 10lbs improvement to confirm himself a
serious
Champion Hurdle contender. He has plenty of scope for further improvement after only five outings over hurdles, he has a killer turn of foot, he stays extremely well, and is proven on every possible type of ground you could encounter. He also has form on flat and undulating tracks.
Granted, he is technically unproven in the top-bracket, but half the battle is in identifying horses who are unexposed, is it not?
I personally think the only thing that can stop this horse winning a Champion Hurdle, is if he fails to recover fully from this setback, and whilst I wouldn’t therefore compel anyone else to take the current price, I confess it is more than good enough for me.
form is very much relative and on all of HFs strengths I would say he could be dropped in to the top grade now and would be able to compete, but could he run to the price avilable on him, Im not so sure. Go Native would look more like an Ebaziyan than a Captain Cee Bee IMO, as Supreme Novice winner go.
The questions I would ask myself regarding HFs price are…
Q – Does he have the staying power and mental resolution of Celestial Halo?
A – Doubtful IMO, but that doesnt mean he couldnt put it too him if rested up off the pace.
Q – Does he have the finishing Speed of Punjabi or Binocular?
A – Doubtful again IMO.
Q – If the pace is average does he have what it takes to get involved?
A – Yes, he should be able to get amongst it.
Q Do I think he will shorten over next season, when he meets the irish champ hurdle challengers.
A Yes. IMO he could have potnentially won most of irelands big races this season with the performances he has been throwing in.
Q. Do I think one could go closer to him if he runs again over 2miles this season?
A Yes
Q – Does his price of 7-1 appeal?
A – Not really as everything stands. He missed cheltenham this year, and is priced up on his potential IMO, I agree that it is good to try seeing one with potential but for example binocular and Captain Cee Bee were 20s and 16s respectively at this point last year, and IMO they had better form than HF has at the same point in time.
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