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chase and hurdle handicap ratings

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  • #6644
    sberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 1801

    i see another promise whose last chase rating was 140 when he won a grade 1 after winning a grade2 and coming a good 5th at cheltenham bears no relation to his hurdles rating of 95 which he is running off in a hurdle at newcastle on tuesday at 4.40

    how fair is this ?

    #142419
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720

    Although there is the possibility that such is the quality of Another Promise’s fencing, that he is one of those horses who was always destined to be considerably better over fences than hurdles.

    #142423
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    But come on Smithy, 52lbs better? 98 is hardly above selling company, whereas his 150 over fences means he’s entitled to a genuine entry in the Champion Chase, which he holds.

    This is a particularly horrendous example which has come about by a pretty unusual state of affairs. As soon as the horse arrived at Ferdy Murphy’s he went straight over fences and a combination of the new yard and new obstacles (it’s anyone’s guess how much each contributed) propelled him to heights you wouldn’t have dreamt of in his previous incarnation.
    Worth noting he’s also entered in a handicap hurdle at Kelso on Thursday. Murphy obviously wants an easy run into him before Cheltenham, and has used his obscenely low hurdle mark quite cleverly here IMO.

    EDIT: Available at 1.79 on BF currently. As much as the markets is still forming at this stage, I get the feeling I’m missing something!

    #142436
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720

    I am only trying to play Devil’s advocate, friggo.

    I am a huge fan of the horse, but wouldn’t be in a rush to get involved tomorrow. He is unlikely to be given a hard time with a view to bigger fish to fry later in the season and do we know why he has been off for so long? (he was due to run in the race Tamarinbleu won at Cheltenham, wasn’t he?).

    It is a particularly significant difference in ratings, and the benefit of hindsight may prove he was a great bet, but I won’t be paying to find out.

    #142441
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    But come on Smithy, 52lbs better? 98 is hardly above selling company, whereas his 150 over fences means he’s entitled to a genuine entry in the Champion Chase, which he holds.

    This is a particularly horrendous example which has come about by a pretty unusual state of affairs. As soon as the horse arrived at Ferdy Murphy’s he went straight over fences and a combination of the new yard and new obstacles (it’s anyone’s guess how much each contributed) propelled him to heights you wouldn’t have dreamt of in his previous incarnation.
    Worth noting he’s also entered in a handicap hurdle at Kelso on Thursday. Murphy obviously wants an easy run into him before Cheltenham, and has used his obscenely low hurdle mark quite cleverly here IMO.

    EDIT: Available at 1.79 on BF currently. As much as the markets is still forming at this stage, I get the feeling I’m missing something!

    Anyone who thinks a horse of his calibre has been plotted up to win a 3 grand race didn’t really ought to be allowed real money. :roll:

    #142446
    sberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 1801

    i was thinking that reet but why run him over hurdles then – will it be schooling in public to fine tune the chelters prep or a chance for a reverse betting coup with the ready excuse for the stewards that he might have needed the run or isn’t as good over hurdles ?

    if he dots up twice before cheltenham at odds on how will his odds be affected for the big race, maybe connections don’t care about that as it’s cheltenham ?

    if all is fair the trainer should have him fit enough to dot up, if he doesn’t i can’t help feel these sort of situations don’t help racings image as a fair sport

    #142448
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    i was thinking that reet but why run him over hurdles then – will it be schooling in public to fine tune the chelters prep or a chance for a reverse betting coup with the ready excuse for the stewards that he might have needed the run or isn’t as good over hurdles ?

    if he dots up twice before cheltenham at odds on how will his odds be affected for the big race, maybe connections don’t care about that as it’s cheltenham ?

    if all is fair the trainer should have him fit enough to dot up, if he doesn’t i can’t help feel these sort of situations don’t help racings image as a fair sport

    And Ferdy Murphy cares about racing’s image?

    #142451
    Zoso
    Member
    • Total Posts 479

    He will win easily on Tuesday. He will reappear on Thursday and get turned over at odds on.

    He will then go to the Cheltenham Festival.

    #142453
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720

    Given his latent potential, and the prospect of runs at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown, is he really going to run twice in three days after a long absence?? Even if he wins tomorrow, will he be turned out again on Thursday??

    #142461
    ahitchcott
    Member
    • Total Posts 60

    is there a site which tells you how ratings are calculated, id like to understand better the different types. is there 4 types of official ratings? turf, all weather, chase and hurdle??

    #142478
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    How do you stop it?

    #142484
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    How do you stop it?

    By having a universal rating for each horse, whether it runs over hurdles, fences, on the flat or the AW? :lol:
    That way any horse that wins a good race is immediately handicapped out of any other prize, in any other discipline, and has to be sold to race abroad. When all the decent horses have gone, that should put an end to this nonsense. :wink:

    #142488
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    Thinking about this and I wonder is this workable:

    If a horse’s handicap marks (fences vs hurdles) differ by more than say 21lbs (or whatever figure is deemed appropriate), then when moving from the higher sphere to the lower sphere, the horse cannot race in a grade that is more than 1 grade lower than the last race they ran in.

    That isn’t worded very good (ha ha) but in practical terms, it means that Another Promise wouldn’t be allowed to run in a Hurdle below cl2 this time because he ran in a cl1 race over fences LTO. Then he can be reassessed by the handicapper based on his performance in the cl2 event, .

    Obviously you’re never going to eliminate the problem entirely but it should go a long way to stopping a lot of it. No (respected) trainer is going to run a Pattern-grade chaser in a cl3 chase just to exploit his much mark in a cl4 hurdle race NTO.

    Or are they?

    #142490
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Anyone remember Truckers Tavern. He ran in the Rowland Meyrick in 2003/4 off 162. His next outing in a handicap was over hurdles on his seasonal reappearance and was turned over off a mark of 125.

    Interesting one this, the horse is such an athletic chaser that as Smithy says it’s most unlikely he’ll ever be as good over hurdles as fences. That said his hurdling mark comes from the form he showed for the hapless J. Supple.

    I’d far rather swerve the race than try and guess what will happen.

    #142519
    underscore
    Member
    • Total Posts 537

    This horse is always a late starter in the season and due to the poor weather is further behind than normal – otherwise he would have ran against Denman at the w.e. This is a chance to get him back on a racecourse in a grade his Hurdle rating would place him. I’d say it is certainly not any kind of plot job and just a chance to get the horse racing again prior to a tilt for place money in the Gold Cup. I wouldn;t be having a bet today.

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