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Front-running into a headwind whilst providing cover for your opponents is the equivalent of having to run uphill whilst the rest are on the level.
yes Yeats I suppose it is, I think that on all accounts the wind would have F/all to do with it unless the horse was affected by the wind "between his ears".
Jeez…The lengths you have to go to to be a pro pundit. I would love to see the data base on horses which ran poorly in the rain not the really fine rain that whets you through, the really heavy stuff that hurts when it hits your head. Thats a lot of research when you think that there are all sorts of rain.
It was a "MANIC SHOW THIS MORNING!"
lol barney, I think you’re right and some do tend to go over the top. Maybe the wind will cease by 2.40, what do we do then?
I thought channel 4 were showing Doncaster, why didn’t they show the 2.25 just now? I had to listen on the radio, the 2.20 kempton race finished at 2.26 and they could have switched and shown the end but didn’t mention it at all..
Sorry you didn’t like the wind angle !
Have to put it in context of being pressed for a tip in a race I would never have bet in which I think I made clear but have to say I always downgrade front runners when there is a verys trong headwind up the straight.
In that regard Paddy Brennan’s comments (after making all !!) on the well backed Island flyer were interesting – I thought I had gone really steady and still failed to get home.
To be fair I reckon I overplayed it as a jumping factor think it is more relevant on the level where getting cover is easier in a tighter grouped field.
FWIW I think wind is a much underrated factor on some flat courses such as Newbury and Newmarket Rowley – look for example of times when Rakti won the Lockinge and the run styles of the winners.
Just anj opinion and if some of you thought it was spurious fair enough but as least it provoked some debate !
P.S If you thought it was sphericals then blame Simon
Richard Hoiles
even if it was a significant factor and what Brennan said was right, the facts state that Tana River has won the marathon race at Sandown in 06 and was second in 07, fair enough it stayed 3m against very low class opposition over hurdles on the penultimate. I would have thought if the wind was a significant factor then you would have been hoping for a force 10 gale(head on). It might have won then.
lets just blame Holt
To be strictly accurate I didn’t say I would have backed Tana River but for the headwind but that I might have been interested in it.
To be honest those veteran races look like being a hit for going down memory lane but not figure high on my lists to target from a betting perspective.
Sadly Planet Of Sound which did figure highly found one too good – I love that family and real shame that once again From Dawn To Dusk is not a Coral Cup entry.
Richard is dead right, a strong head wind is against front runners. I think yesterdays winner Kings Euro was significantly better than the result suggests. Can go in again but will probably need further / and / or softer (without the wind) to make it a test. Will stay / improve over further.
Todays headwind was nowhere near as strong as friday (not as strong as the forecast either).Richard,
Do you agree a strong tail wind can favour front runners?Ginge
Value Is EverythingRichard Hoiles I think you are a great presenter and knowledgeable pundit. I agree with your points re the race type.
hope you had a good day
All The Best
Yes Ginger simply because it enables them to run home faster which means anything giving them a start will have to run impossibly quick to catch them.
Clearly tempo is the overriding factor for whether it is good to be forward or back but particularly Newmarket Rowley there are days where nothing comes close to winning from the back because unless the leaders go stupidly quick you cannot give as much start in those conditons and hope to recover it.
Again I would stress this is a far bigger factor on the flat where straight courses can mean you are into/aided by the wind the whole way rather than round courses where obviously will be both head or tail for part of the race.
It is only of interest when it is genuinely strong and hence becomes a key factor on the day.
Does anyone think the atrocious conditions on Greatwood Hurdle day this season suited some horses rather than others?
I have noticed Richard, you are usually the only one who mentions probable pace in the race beforehand (may be Jim "Timeform" McGrath too). When I make my 100% book I reduce a front running horse if there are others likely to take him on and increase the hold up horses chance. The opposite applies with only one probable front runner likely to get a soft lead.
Value Is Everythingperhaps we should campaign to have the programme stopped, and then there wouldn’t be any programmes about racing at all on the television..,it obviously gives the sport a bad name; light hearted banter, a guy talking at length [and very eloquently I might add] about the injured jockeys fund….
Well said. It’s sad that people attack the show when i think it’s absolutely brilliant we have it on. It got me into racing in the first place and if it can attract new faces to the sport then good for it. I hope it keeps going for a very long time. And i also hope nothing much changes with it, i think the set up of it and the presenters etc they have are all top class.
It’s amazing just how much bad publicity it receives from the racing community. I tune into The Morning Line for the banter and light-hearted approach to the days racing, not for the crews ‘expert analysis’.
Alastair Down is the best presenter in the business and noboby beats Jim McGrath’s knowledge. His partnership with John Francombe is the best on the box and Nick Luck is pure class as the post-race reporter. Then there’s Thommo and Big Mac, who are, well…Thommo and Big Mac!!
Although, Tanya slams the men by a distance as a tipster!
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