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It’s a big concern Steve definitely. When TAPK asked me why I had not gone in bigger on NM that was exactly what I replied. You couldn’t put your life savings on anything from Warren Place with any certainty. They have had a terrible season since July and I am afraid they are in permanent decline. I just hope NM is good enough to overcome the stable form and run a decent race.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
If he is anywhere near his best he should win. I just hope they have at least 8 runners as I am sure NM will run into the first three and could even give the fav something to think about.
If you have your ante posts on Noble Mission each way it won’t matter if there are less than eight runners, you’ll still get three places.
One of the forgotten benefits of betting Ante-Post is that you get whatever the terms were when the bet was struck.
I recall a bizarre one where one of my punters had placed £20 e/w on a 33/1 shot for the Grand National and his horse fell fatally in a race shortly afterwards. Me trying to be efficient, spiked his bet with the losers one day thinking that was that. What happened next of course was they voided the 1993 race and, of course, you can’t lose money on a race that never existed. Cue a long search for the slip in question and surely the jammiest refund on a horse who, literally didn’t have a ghost’s chance of winning. Mind you I had to feel sorry at the other extreme for the boy David Ness, who stuck a few quid on the "winner" Esha Ness, only to be handed his stake back.
Neigh, Neigh and Thrice Neigh was one of the headlines the following day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Anything odds-against on Cirrus is superb value. Forecast with Noble Mission, job done.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Yeah, you keep your place terms ante post, hence I’ve lumped on Marsh Hawk hoping the rest drop out on Friday.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Noble Mission is just about the same price as Free Eagle now on betfair. Not looking good for Weld’s horse.
Yet according to oddscheckers stats and information waggon wheel he is the most popular bet at 36.94% with a sea of red across the board.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
I wonder did most of bets get struck last week. Clearly Free Eagle was working the house down or something as you could lay him for much than pence right down to 2.6. Everybody is waiting now.
I note Chris Stickels call the going soft (heavy in places) this afternoon before more rain arrived. Incredible that it could change from heavy since yesterday noon. Must be some drainage. Assuming we get two dry days ie Thursday and Friday. The going might just be classified as soft.
Or that could be Mr Stickels trying to project a sunny side, if you excuse the pun.
SHL
Noble Mission is just about the same price as Free Eagle now on betfair. Not looking good for Weld’s horse.
Dermot Weld has said Free Eagle will travel over but they won’t decide if he runs until the morning of the race. They are going to run him if the going is soft but might not run him if it is heavy.
I would say that if you take the horse over you may as well run him. Soft or heavy? Is there that big a difference? At least they will find out one way or another if he handles the surface and if he’s struggling on it they can let him come home in his own time and he can recover from any exertions over the winter.
It is still raining at Ascot today and the only thing drying up is the 6/4 on Cirrus Des Aigles. He is in to 11/10 with one firm and surely he’s going to be the one for money as the big day approaches.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Noble Mission is just about the same price as Free Eagle now on betfair. Not looking good for Weld’s horse.
Dermot Weld has said Free Eagle will travel over but they won’t decide if he runs until the morning of the race. They are going to run him if the going is soft but might not run him if it is heavy.
I would say that if you take the horse over you may as well run him. Soft or heavy? Is there that big a difference? At least they will find out one way or another if he handles the surface and if he’s struggling on it they can let him come home in his own time and he can recover from any exertions over the winter.
It is still raining at Ascot today and the only thing drying up is the 6/4 on Cirrus Des Aigles. He is in to 11/10 with one firm and surely he’s going to be the one for money as the big day approaches.
He has said he’ll make a decision after walking the track. Weld has form for pulling horses out on the day at Ascot. I think it was Pale Mimosa or Rite Of Passage (who he handled brilliantly) that was pulled before, can’t remember which but pretty sure it was one of them.
He obviously rates the horse extremely highly, and he must feel a slog against probably the world’s best soft ground horse might not be the right thing for the horse at this stage of his career.
Having backed Free Eagle for the Derby part of me would love to see him put in a spectacular performance. A sort of vindication if you like. However, the part of me that has backed Cirrus at hopes for more rain.
Kingsbarns has been pulled out of the race but would surely have struggled. He is a shadow of the horse who won the Racing Post Trophy in such good style.
Free Eagle is out to 4/1 now and the latest going report from Ascot reads as follows:-
Ascot / Sat 18 Oct
Updated @ Thu 16 Oct
Going/ Heavy, Soft in places (GoingStick: Standside 6.2, Centre 6.3, farside 6.3, Round 5.0 on Thursday at 08:30)Stalls: Straight Course: Standside Round Course: Inside
Weather 8mm rain overnight to 8am Thursday morning, Thursday expected to be dry until late afternoon when showers are due again overnight to Friday. Friday is forecast to be drier and sunny, showers due again overnight to Saturday and are possible on Saturday.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I couldn’t believe the old "mince pies" this morning when I saw Cirrus Des Aigles at 9/4 so I got on the old bike and had some more money on him.
I just can’t see Free Eagle as a 5/2 shot here and if Cirrus does go down I am going to be the loyal Captain that goes down with him, saluting until the waves wash over my head.
Noble Mission is desperately weak in the betting, 8/1 in some places and almost double his odds earlier in the week. That’s surely a bad sign.
I’ve stuck a forecast on Cirrus to beat Ruler Of The World. Second and Third last year to be First and Second this year seemed a logical, if simplistic view to take.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well as it stands. I win quite large if Weiss horse wins. I win medium if he withdraws and i scrape a profit if he loses. Looks like he is running
SHL
Well, if they remake True Grit again, Noble Mission should play Rooster Cogburn. Delighted for Lady Cecil after a pretty dismal season outside of this horse.
Looks like Cirrus has gone at the game but he leaves a good legacy.
Well done Joni and others who kept faith with the game front runner!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thanks Stevie – racing is a funny old game. Who would have thought NM would win the Champion at the start of the season. The guts and bravery he showed today was immense. Couldn’t be happier for Warren Place.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Ruler Of The World ran a stinker today and it hasn’t happened for this Derby winner since his glory at Epsom.
Western Hymn sweated up desperately beforehand and again looked awkward, hanging right before staying on without quickening on this ground the trainer says blunts his turn of foot. If they can find the key to the this horse and he stays in training he might mature into a better racehorse.
Free Eagle ran really well for a horse low on experience in competitive races and if he stays healthy he should be a contender in a division that looks ripe for a new top dog next year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well, if they remake True Grit again, Noble Mission should play Rooster Cogburn. Delighted for Lady Cecil after a pretty dismal season outside of this horse.
Looks like Cirrus has gone at the game but he leaves a good legacy.
Well done Joni and others who kept faith with the game front runner!!
Cirrus has had a good year. Wouldnt write him off yet (i did that last year)
Weld horses ran really well for a beast clearly not handling the ground. He will a very good animal next year. I didnt fancy the winner at all although i was trying to get a few bob on the second to be placed earlier in the week.
SHL
Cirrus Des Aigles can’t keep going for ever though. He looked really good in the Coronation Cup but his injury there must leave a question mark.
Although he finished first past the post before being demoted to 5th in the Prix Dollar, he was all out to win by a nose. The Channel 4 team mentioned today that the performance was some way below his best and I suppose most of us put that down to him needing the run after his break and the faster surface. Today he had his ground and form of 122 the past three runs in the race, beaten only by the supreme Frankel and a good horse in Farrh. Today he never looked likely at any stage and perhaps the injury he suffered has left some permanent mark on him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I really enjoyed todays racing and this race in particular. But I do find it a bit sad that Noble Mission won because James Doyle broke the whip ban rule whereas
that George Baker [who I rate very highly] didn’t. It was a fantastic result for racing though. And [as usual] I was blinking back the tears at the end.
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