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If CDA is anything like the horse we have seen on heavy ground, such as in the Dollar back in 2012, i would expect Noble Mission to have little chance. The way he handles the extreme soft is quite remarkable really. Who knows, maybe the ground wont ride that bad.
SHL
The Ascot going is currently heavy-soft in places and the BHA website gives the following weather forecast for the week:-
25mm rain overnight to 07.15 Monday. Rain due to continue through Monday morning. Forecast remains unsettled with showers possible most days this week.
It seems unlikely that it will get much chance to dry out if the forecast proves correct.
I don’t fancy Noble Mission, he was in good form in the spring but he had a lot in his favour when holding off Magician. He couldn’t hold on when the ground should have suited him against Arc runner up Flintshire and again in Germany. I get the feeling he had a hard enough time early doors and has enough to prove now with the stable very quiet for a fair while.
I reckon Cirrus is a nailing good bet all things considered. Worth remembering he thrashed Arc runner up Flintshire on three legs in the Coronation Cup. Runner up to Farrh last year and Frankel the year before, it made no sense to have a group 3 winner ahead of him in the betting.
Ruler Of The World ran well in this last year after a seventh place in the Arc. He was ninth this year at Longchamp and may be an each-way shot again, although he’s 8/1 now rather than the 12/1 available before the Grey Gatsby came out.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Cant figure out Sheikhzayedroad ground preferences. Read somewhere that they would only run him if it was very soft but his recent form (and even some previous trainer comment) suggest good ground being more ideal. He looks an improving sort though.
SHL
Ruler of the world seems the bet especially as his stamina will come into play if it’s a bog. Agree though cda looks the likely winner.
Ruler Of The World is a strange horse for me. He ran well in this race last season and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him win this years running but it would surprise me a bit. He won’t get an easy lead like he did at Longchamp, not with Noble Mission in the field and although I can see him running well I’d be disappointed if he was good enough to win this.
If Cirrus is anywhere near his best this race should be there for the taking for him, conditions should be perfect.
Noble Mission and Western Hymn will also like soft ground and I’ve had the feeling all season that there may be more to come from the Gosden horse.
At a big price, if O’Brien runs Kingsbarns it wouldn’t shock me to see this horse thereabouts. He ran well over a mile at this meeting last year, held up and ran on. Given a similar ride on Saturday over the longer trip could bring out the best in him.
Free Eagle we haven’t seen the best of but a combination of soft ground, the bounce factor and the fact that he hasn’t won above group three level make him a ludicrous price even at the currently available 3/1.
Just a note of caution with Western Hymn on the ground. Although he has won on the surface he was unimpressive and William Buick said the horse just couldn’t quicken the way he normally does. John Gosden explained further that the horse has a good turn of foot but just can’t use it to the same effect on soft ground.
I watched him in a Group 2 at Deauville when he was narrow 5/4 fav from Arc 7th Prince Gibraltar and was somewhat surprised to see him ridden for a turn of foot in the soft conditions. Guess what, he didn’t quicken up and the similarly ridden Prince Gibraltar could never get to the two horses ridden more positively and they finished third and fourth.
Western Hymn was one of my ante-post Derby horses this year and probably got a less than inspired ride. Prominent in the Leger betting afterwards despite Gosden saying he would drop back in trip if anything, he has been a disappointment to me and doesn’t quite look a group 1 horse yet.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve
Re Western Hymn – I’m not convinced that the horse is better on a sound surface.The horse won on that horrible Sandown ground earlier in the season when the winning time was 13+ seconds above standard. He beat Snow Sky at Newbury in a time that was 9+ seconds above standard and won at Maisons Laffitte by three lengths on ground officially described as very soft. He was beaten on what was described as heavy ground last time out but the time of that race was "only" seven seconds above standard.
That is three wins on what I’d describe as soft to very soft ground. I am wondering whether the horse is fully matured yet mentally given that he has looked awkward at times this season.
Do you share my concerns or do you think he simply is what he is?
Mudlarks Paradise – all the money for Cirrus and Noble Mission.
Would be some performance from Free Eagle, even with the weight-for-age allocation to win on that ground given his pedigree.
Test of nerve for dermot weld. Does he run the horse while it is sound risking it on bad ground or wait till next season not sure if he will stay sound. Looks a great prospect and by high chaparral one of my recent favs. Will indeed be a great feat if free eagle wins.
I’m not too sure if High Chaparral’s have too good a record at Ascot. So You Think won 1 of 3 there and the Beast won this years Queen Anne but I’m sure I’ve read somewhere a very poor sequence for his progeny.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
If i were interpreting his language. I think he very much sees this a horse for next year. Weld has a great record with horses that are injury prone such as Rite of Passage and Hidden universe.
SHL
Steve
Re Western Hymn – I’m not convinced that the horse is better on a sound surface.The horse won on that horrible Sandown ground earlier in the season when the winning time was 13+ seconds above standard. He beat Snow Sky at Newbury in a time that was 9+ seconds above standard and won at Maisons Laffitte by three lengths on ground officially described as very soft. He was beaten on what was described as heavy ground last time out but the time of that race was "only" seven seconds above standard.
That is three wins on what I’d describe as soft to very soft ground. I am wondering whether the horse is fully matured yet mentally given that he has looked awkward at times this season.
Do you share my concerns or do you think he simply is what he is?
I am going partly on what connections have said post race, and partly on personal opinion.
John Gosden said the following after the Sandown Classic trial:-
I’m pleased he’s come here and passed his test. I was thrilled that he handled the ground, thrilled he handled the trip on the ground. I didn’t know how he’d handle a mile and a quarter on this, you know, and he showed to me that he’s got the stamina as much as the resolution."
Western Hymn’s head carriage was, he felt, "babyish" behaviour that he should hopefully leave behind. "Have you ever walked up that straight? It’s quite daunting with the stand and everything. I’ve had them hit the front before the pedestrian path many times and seen them beaten late. But the trouble is soft ground, I know what William’s thinking: if something gets three lengths on me, I’m in trouble. On good ground, you can afford to wait longer."
As we know, the stamina question mark re-emerged after the Derby and although the horse bounced back well enough with his turn of foot on show again on his next start, he never got into a position where he looked like he would win in his last race, after being held up despite the concerns he couldn’t pick up as well on soft ground.
I backed Western Hymn ante post to small stakes at 33/1 for the Derby but my heart sank when I watched him at Sandown, despite him winning. It just didn’t look like a Derby winner I had watched and although he had an each-way squeak, I felt he was exposed as a shade short of the class required to win at Epsom.
There is a possibility that the horse might mature over the winter if he stays in training next year but for now I think he’s short of the level of form required. The ground at Ascot was changed to Heavy after more rain and that will make it hard for a horse who needs held up and will also make it ride more like a mile and a half race in stamina terms, add in not having won at group 1 level and I feel it is safe to say Western Hymn has a lot on his plate and quotes of 10/1 make no appeal to me.
I would advise gobbling up the 13/8 on Cirrus Des Aigles as I can’t see him being much above evens when punters come to their senses.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
OK Steve, thanks for that.
I’m with you on this race anyway, I think unless Cirrus Des Aigles suddenly becomes old overnight or something strange happens it’s going to take something special that we haven’t seen yet from something else to beat him.
With my 7-2 CDA voucher and 14’s and 8’s about NM I’m feeling pretty smug!
I see what you are saying about NM and the funny thing is that his form is still easy to pick holes in despite him beating some pretty good horses this year. He easily beat Telescope twice BUT it was on softer ground than Telescope would have liked. He beat Magician who then ran a blinder in the POW BUT it was on soft ground. He beat the subsequent ARC runner up Flintshire BUT it was on soft ground. The thing is it will also be soft ground on Saturday and the fact that the faster ground caused him to miss the Irish Champion and Juddmonte can only be a good thing now. He is clearly a transformed horse since they changed the tactics with him and he might just be hard to peg back if they do give him a soft lead and JD gets his fractions right.
However in CDA we are dealing with a mud machine. Possibly the best horse in mud from the last 10 years. His form figures since 2011 when the going description has been "heavy" or "v soft" reads 1,1,1,1,1,1 and the winning distances 3 lengths, 8 lengths, 10 lengths, 8 lengths, 9 lengths, SNK (against Treve). Not too bad on the soft then.
If he is anywhere near his best he should win. I just hope they have at least 8 runners as I am sure NM will run into the first three and could even give the fav something to think about.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
With my 7-2 CDA voucher and 14’s and 8’s about NM I’m feeling pretty smug!
I see what you are saying about NM and the funny thing is that his form is still easy to pick holes in despite him beating some pretty good horses this year. He easily beat Telescope twice BUT it was on softer ground than Telescope would have liked. He beat Magician who then ran a blinder in the POW BUT it was on soft ground. He beat the subsequent ARC runner up Flintshire BUT it was on soft ground. The thing is it will also be soft ground on Saturday and the fact that the faster ground caused him to miss the Irish Champion and Juddmonte can only be a good thing now. He is clearly a transformed horse since they changed the tactics with him and he might just be hard to peg back if they do give him a soft lead and JD gets his fractions right.
However in CDA we are dealing with a mud machine. Possibly the best horse in mud from the last 10 years. His form figures since 2011 when the going description has been "heavy" or "v soft" reads 1,1,1,1,1,1 and the winning distances 3 lengths, 8 lengths, 10 lengths, 8 lengths, 9 lengths, SNK (against Treve). Not too bad on the soft then.
If he is anywhere near his best he should win. I just hope they have at least 8 runners as I am sure NM will run into the first three and could even give the fav something to think about.
7/2 looks a gift for Cirrus now.
Are you concerned about the form of the Lady Cecil yard Joni?
They had a decent start to the year but have tailed off pretty dramatically and the stats read as follows for winners:-
April 4 wins
May 6 wins
June 2 wins
July 2 wins
August 1 win
September 0 wins
October 1 winFair enough they don’t have a lot of runners but that’s pretty quiet and they only had one winner from 40 runners during August and September. It’s off-putting for me Joni but you are in good shape anyway with the Mud Beast on your side.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If he is anywhere near his best he should win. I just hope they have at least 8 runners as I am sure NM will run into the first three and could even give the fav something to think about.
If you have your ante posts on Noble Mission each way it won’t matter if there are less than eight runners, you’ll still get three places.
If he is anywhere near his best he should win. I just hope they have at least 8 runners as I am sure NM will run into the first three and could even give the fav something to think about.
If you have your ante posts on Noble Mission each way it won’t matter if there are less than eight runners, you’ll still get three places.
Is that right? Thanks for clearing that up THM
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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