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Done a search to see if there was a topic for this couldn’t find one. One thing that was noticeable was the amount of people who have tipped up Cirrus Des Aigles, most seem to be on at bigger than the 7/4 currently available which surely isn’t value, especially with the early season form?
So i’ve been looking for something to get him beat, the main problem I’m finding is who is going to turn up, Farhh will be a major force but has another entry and it is ‘yet to be decided’ were he goes.
Same problem with Ballydoyle, at the minute Camelot, Magician and Kingsbarns all prominent in the betting. In addition to Declaration of War who I’ve backed at 15s on Betdaq that could seem huge if he does turn up.
In addition to the above The Fugue, and the Hannon pair Sky Lantern and Toronado could potentially turn up.
Anyone shed any light as to who is going where?
It is likely that the ground will be soft at Ascot. This will rule out The Fugue and Declaration Of War if previous statements by their trainers mean anything. It is hard to see Sky Lantern getting home on soft ground and the same would apply to Toronado if he were to line up. I can’t have anything to do with Kingsbarns after his last run, Camelot is looking a bust and it’s a lot to expect for Magician to bounce back, with the same comment a fair point regarding Farhh.
With several of these just as likely to end up in the QE II, it leaves a potentially very modest challenge facing Cirrus Des Aigles, who has taken ages to find something approaching his form this season. All the same, I’d be inclined to take him on at short odds.
On the soft I’d be interested in Maxios at 11/1, as an each-way lock, if he turns up in this rather than the QEII. Although Farhh is respected his Lockinge win seems like a long time ago and he’s never run on truly soft ground, making 4/1 look as thin as a raindrop.
This could be another Dewhurst/Middle Park scenario with some in one race and some in the other, or not taking part at all.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If he ran in this, Id be on Toronado as Im very sure breeding wise that 10F is easily within his compass. Given the conservative nature of connections and the current price on betfair I imagine he will stay at the shorter trip though. Maxios ran well last day but without that race, which fell his way, he would be 5 times the price here.
Betting also suggests you will be seeing Kingbarns and not Magician here. Not looking like I will be backing anything but if I were, it might be Mukhadram as he has had this race as a target for a while
SHL
Only 15 left in the Champion now. Maxios, Toronado and The Fugue are out of the picture, while Farhh is left in both races, no doubt waiting to find out what the ground is like nearer the time. I have a feeling Farhh and Declaration of War will miss the race and I reckon Mukhadram will end up second fave behind a very short priced Cirrus Des Aigles, who will probably be odds on. I would lay Kingsbarns, Magician and Sky Lantern all day long
A "no bet" race for me now but, as I said on the QEII thread, Maxios will do for me on soft ground, because he at least comes here in form and it makes no sense to have Olympic Glory two points shorter on the back of a 5 length beating and 2 lbs worse in.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve, I agree with you that there is a some doubt about Farhh if the ground is truly soft, in that he has never run on worse than good to soft. He certainly handled good to soft very well when just failing to get up and catch Moonlight Cloud at Longchamp over 1m, giving that one three pounds, having said that,I hope any more rain stays away.
I was thinking I had been a bit hasty, as I’ve already had a bet on Farhh at 5-1 with betvictor in the Champion, but I’m hoping that with Silvestre De Sousa now declared as the jockey on Farhh in the Champion Stakes (not shown on the QE11), that it is some kind of good omen, that together with the general shortening of his price in the markets.
I agree with you Danny, I think he would be a major force if he turns up, his win ratio would be better if he hadn’t twice come up against Frankel. Imagine owning a horse as good as Farhh, and it just happens that at the same time, possibly the best ever horse over a mile or 10f happens to be around.
Cirrus Des Aigles is a very good horse, no doubting that, but I’m not sure he is back to the form he showed in the Prix Ganay last year. He has an outstanding record winning 16 races, although only once tree times on the trot. He has won his last two runs, his run before the last, at Maisons-Laffitte was hard fought but he didn’t scatter the field the way he has done in the past. His last run at Longchamp was more comfortable, but I think still short of his old form, and obviously the four races before those he was disappointing. I could be wrong but I don’t think he is the horse he was, whereas Fahrr looked at his best last time in the Lockage, winning very comfortably.
I’ll keep my fingers crossed that he is aimed at the Champion, and that there is not much more rain, having said that, maybe he will love soft ground if there is. I’m also hoping that at 5, he has more left in the tank than Cirrus at 7.
I don’t think Declaration of War will line up as he conditions probably won’t suit, and I don’t think Mukhadran, good as he is, is up with either of Fahrr or Cirrus. So by my working out, it is between the two, and with the doubts I’m not about taking 11/8 on a horse with questions to answer.
Sounds easy when you put it like that…..we’ll see.
Exchange odds seem to indicate a lot of drop outs so each way antepost on Farhh and Hillstar now look ok value.
Cirrus Des Aigles
won the Dollar in an outstanding time compared to the rest on the day. Showing he’s on his way back and won’t need to improve much on that to win. Won in 2011 and second in 2012, so we know he’s effective at Ascot and this time of year. Probably won’t need to reproduce the form of those two performances this time around. I tipped him @ 4/1 a couple of weeks back (Nathan has 16’s!), it was always going to cut up, particularly on softer ground, but agree he’s too short now. Suspect bookies are scared how many good ones are going to turn up. Could drift a bit on the day.
I’ve been a fan of the Godolphin horse since the Thirsk Hunt Cup.
Farhh
is fully effective at ten furlongs and has a very rounded action usually associated with one at his best on soft ground. So it is conceivable he’ll be even better on soft. However, although he stays the 10f trip and (I believe) will act on soft… will he get the trip on very soft ground with the added test of stamina? There’s also the fact he’s been absent so long with an injury. Though won the Lockinge after significant time off. Taking in to account all the positives and negatives – I’ve had a saver on him @ 4/1. Looks the best value bet in the race right now.
Is
Hillstar
going to be fast enough at this trip? Seemed to progress for the step up to 1m4f, but wasn’t that far behind Declaration Of War and co at York. Suppose could prove as effective with a stiffer test at 10. Won on soft at two and has a slightly rounded action, but best form so far on a firm surface (possibly coincidence). Will need to improve for the ground if he’s to trouble the market principles.
Ruler Of The World
is a staying mile and a half horse who didn’t look fast enough in the Arc, so 10 could be a problem even if it’s testing. We know he goes well on a soft surface. May be running here due to lack options for team Coolmore. Declaration Of War and Magician ground worries, Camelot retired, Kingsbarns not been right all season etc etc.
Morandi
is interesting. French horse who loves the mud. Won Group 1 Criterium De Saint-Cloud as a 2 year old (1m2f heavy). Form in truth looks a bit exposed, but hasn’t had both ground and distance in his favour since last year. Outsider to bear in mind if it comes up a real bog.
Hunters Light
improved in to a Group 1 performer in Dubai on Tapeta, but failed to show it on turf in Europe. Put up one of his best European performances on heavy ground at Goodwood in 2011. I have good cause to remember it. A racing pal of mine asked me what I thought of Hunters Light’s chance? I replied he’d have a good chance on form, but didn’t look to handle good-soft on previous start. Meanwhile, I had looked on the Tote screen where he was 25/1 (“value is everything”). My words had put my mate off but I backed it myself. Sadly, as the Nanny can do, the 25’s became a similar price to SP in no time (so wouldn’t have backed it at all had I known!). Ended up buying the drinks that day. Anyway, back to Hunters Light. Can’t really see him figuring here.
Don’t like saying such things, but unless it comes up extremely testing – this looks a two horse race.
Value Is EverythingBacked Cirrus at 8s and just had a saver on Morandi at 20s, it will be bottomless come Saturday, few will handle the ground.
Nobody has ever really given
Sky Lantern
the praise that she truly deserves and Saturday will be her chance to show that she can beat the boys, I truly believe in this filly and that she can win the Champion Stakes.
The only chance she had to prove herself over 10f in the Nassau Stakes she was badly hampered by the winner not once but twice and still ran on to take 5th place, that day Michael Stoute’s filly Integral was 7th having also been left with nowhere to go in the race. Integral then went on to win her next race and then to run in the Sun Chariot at Newmarket where she came 2nd to Sky Lantern.
I believe that given every chance to run her race,
Sky Lantern
will show how effective she is over 1m2f and win the Champion Stakes.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Nobody has ever really given Sky Lantern the praise that she truly deserves
I know of one person who has, forget her name begins with a J……
I agree that she would be bang there on quick ground for sure. 10f is no problem for her, she settled well enough tackling the distance, travelled and came to challenge full of running but Hughes was far too confident at Goodwood and rode a stinker which he admitted after. The ground looks to be the pivotal question as to whether or (weather) or not she lines up though.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Im sure most people appreciate that Sky Lantern more than holds up her end of the classic generation.
But when you think about the 3 year old mares that were well up to beating the boys, (ie Miesque, Goldikova, Ridgewood Pearl, Zarkava, Treve, Salsabil, Treve etc) , one realises just how good you have to be I suppose.
And then to do it under not ideal ground. I cant see it happening.
SHL
Well I only backed Cirrus at 11/4 but like Animal Kingdom I’ll be laying that all off at around the Even money mark. His form of last year would make him impossible to beat but as he has only run to an OR of at best 120 this year hardly makes him a shoe in with Farhh and Muk both capable of posting figures in the 120s plus Ruler of The World also capable if it is a really strong pace he is not guaranteed to win. A nice place to be for a free bet for me and if he wins you’re losing only a point. Seems like some don’t like this tactic I suppose if it is down to if you are sure he will win or not. Personally I’ll take circa 7/4 for my bet and have my money back if he does not perform or is beaten by an improving horse on the day.
Saying that if he can reproduce anywhere near his run from last year in conditions that would seem to favour him far more than his opposition he is more like a 1/2 chance. His trainer seems to know him well and feels he is back to last years form. Farhh would not have been within 7Ls (taking collateral form of the Juddmonte) if running last year so on that form Cirrus is around 5lbs clear. I’d not be backing him at Evens but he is surely the most likely winner?
I’ll hold my nerve for a bit re laying off as it cannot be guaranteed that market rival Farhh will make the race. If he doesn’t then it will be an obvious opportunity to lay off at odds on. The best price I can see Cirrus on the day if the big layers want to take him on is circa 6/4 so still on a no lose situation with a reasonable upside.
Well i backed Morandi ew at 20s the other day with the expectant rain. I was pretty confident that it was going to ride heavy and he was going to be placed. Whereas now the forecast has changed again and it might not be soft enough.
SHL
Connections of Farhh have said on more than one occasion that he would prefer softer conditions. Of course, a combination of soft ground and ten furlongs may not prove ideal, but it could well be that the lightly-raced 5YO may actually improve for it and it’s quite interesting that Godolphin have taken this option.
Connections of Farhh have said on more than one occasion that he would prefer softer conditions. Of course, a combination of soft ground and ten furlongs may not prove ideal, but it could well be that the lightly-raced 5YO may actually improve for it and it’s quite interesting that Godolphin have taken this option.
Bosranic, that is exactly my thinking on this race. I took the chance of taking an ante post while he was still entered in both this and the QE11.
At this point it is looking as good as I could have hoped and the 5-1 with betvictor was worth taking.
I fancy Farhh a lot for this race, and although there has been a lot of positive noises from people about Cirrus Des Aigles, I’m not sure he will produce on the day, just because he ran a good race last time. There are more than a few question marks about him and no way should he be odds on.
Farhh has had his problems, but they have been handled immaculately by Godolphin, each time he has run he has been spot on, it just means because of his problems there will always be gaps between his races.
I still think 7/2 is decent value.
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