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Verbal Dexterity – 33s.
Looked top class last year, and this is his only Champions Day entry. I can imagine they’re planning on today, Irish Champion Stakes, Ascot Champion Stakes. He might get the soft ground he needs. If he wins today, he’ll be half that price.
I opted for Poet’s Word 9/2
He met trouble in the International and would have been a lot closer to Roaring Lion had he not. The possibility of the going being on the soft side for this race would be a negative for Roaring Lion.
The list on oddschecker looks full of horses who might not run with the proximity of the Arc and breeders cup including Poet’s Word but I think he’ll line up here already winning twice at the track this season and the trainer having another already ahead of PW in the betting for the ArcCharles Darwin to conquer the World
I think Roaring Lion had Poet’s Word well beaten off. If Poet’s Word had been nearer the action I feel Roaring Lion’s jockey would simply have held onto his mount longer. The way the Gosden horse quickened away left me with the impression that Poet’s Word will always struggle to match that weapon.
Ground is a big factor as Nathan said. I felt 3/1 might look big on the day for Roaring Lion.
Verbal Dexterity was a bit disappointing in group 3 company today. I am not sure he’s up to this sort of level and I just can’t back anything trained by Jim Bolger. He seems no more than a bit player these days.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Agree 100% about Jim Bolger Steve.
He has a promising 2 year old near the top of the antepost market for the following years classics a couple of years ago but the horse ended up doing nothing. Bolgers choice of races for the colt (it had a Latin name if I remember rightly) confused me at the time as he really didn’t seem to know what to do with a genuine classic contender.
The ground would be a concern for both Poet’s Word + Roaring Lion if it was to turn up soft.
However, it hasn’t been worse than Yielding in the past few years according to the RP results + i think both would be fine on that!
I would be of the opinion Poet’s Word won’t stand a chance vs Roaring Lion over 1m2, he would be better off racing over 1m4!
Verbal Dexterity would maybe come into this if it rained a lot before the off but that’s a pretty big IF.
Does anyone know if Study Of Man is likely to show up? Blantant prep last time.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Pascal Bary is a rare visitor to these shores. His last runner in the UK was Billabong, who was third in a Listed race in 2014.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Although the ground for Poet’s Word’s improvement this season has been on a sound surface, that may well be coincidence having not run on a soft surface this term. Looked equally effective on soft ground as a three year old. imo Has an action likely to be at least as effective on good-soft and probably soft too. Indeed, softish ground at 1m2f may well help him because it favours stamina more than speed.
5/2 Roaring Lion now, may well look big come the day if it’s good ground or firmer. However, although ran well on good-soft when second in the Racing Post Trophy, given his action and turn of foot highly likely a sound surface is ideal for Roaring Lion. I wouldn’t be at all confident he’d confirm places with Poets Word on good-soft and – given Gosden’s warning he won’t run on soft or heavy – overall 5/2 looks very short for a race on 20th October.
I’d consider Poets Word for this, but done Crystal Ocean for the Arc and if the latter were to win the Irish Champion could yet switch with Poets Word here. So not wanting to lose two ante-post bets without a run foor my money – will wait until after the Irish version before playing.
Value Is EverythingI’ve just realised i was talking about the Irish CS going, when mentioning the yielding or better going conditions in my last post, so ignore that
I can see what you mean with Poet’s Word GT in that, it would probably inconvenience Roaring Lion more (on what we know anyway). It might just be coincidence that PW has been kept predominantly to better ground, but for me it would certainly be risky taking it on trust he’d perform to this year’s form on softer going. Alright, he’s clearly improved a good bit this year in general and it’s altogether possible he’d just do the same on any ground, but i wouldn’t be backing him.
It’s far too early for me to get involved, if it turns up soft or heavy, Cracksman would be a danger to all, along with Crystal Ocean.
Worth waiting for me!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I have now got involved, but not yet with Poets Word.
Form-wise it may be true that Cracksman‘s Champion Stakes form is a stand-out figure – not many Group 1’s are won with such a big rating. However, the Great Voltigeur performance was also of Group 1 quality, it just came in a Group 2. Putting up faster sectionals in the 12f Group 2 Voltigeur than Ulysees, Churchill and Barney Roy did in the 10f Group 1 International half an hour later (and they were not running slow). Cracksman’s fractions that day would’ve been impossible had he only been a horse of Group 2 standard.
The question is whether he’s still capable of last season’s Champion form? Prince Of Wales performance may have had something to do with good-firm going, but that’s not definite. From what I’ve seen his action should be fully effective on a firm surface… I know there were excuses about hitting his head on stalls at Epsom, but is it really only a coincidence the POW was very similar to the way he travelled in the Corry Cup? And the Corry Cup was on softer ground! imo Always been lazy, and even last year needed to be pushed along to show his turn of foot/speed. This season it is possible that laziness has progressed in to a temperament issue (not saying it’s probable, just possible). Gosden’s record with first time headgear is a good one! There was another imo equally plausable reason for his last run. I was at first sceptical of Gosden’s excuse of Cracksman being coltish before the race (interested in the fillies coming back from the previous race)… But have since seen evidence on youtube and in my experience of 30 years going racing I’ve seen many horses coltish in the paddock before disappointing in the race.
If Cracksman had a good season I think he may well have taken Enable on in the Arc; but now I doubt it. If he were mine I’d be going back to Ascot. If going to France and runs anything like a good race then unless winning there I think he’ll run in this aswell. Certainly won’t be going to America with the liklihood of fast ground and connections will want to end his career on a win. Can see current favourite Roaring Lion missing the English Champion and being Gosden’s Breeders Cup representitive (US pedigree and loves a sound surface).
Probability is Cracksman won’t come back to form, but @ 5/1 for the Champion am willing to take the risk.
Value Is EverythingI’m on Cracksman here at 5s. The ground come mid/late Oct has always got soft in the description. 1m 2f on the soft round there, oh yes. I’m expecting a Cracksman back to form here subject to the ground. Fingers crossed he stays away from the arc. And let the wonder filly do her thing there.
That’s a shame, think he would have been ideal for this.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Roaring Lion is generally 6/4 here, with one or two little pockets of resistance.
Cracksman is too short now unless Roaring Lion defects. Even then we have to see what the older horse does in the Arc and then see what ground he encounters.
I did Roaring Lion at 3/1 as I felt there was just about enough wriggle room there as value. If he doesn’t run, I simply won’t have another selection.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Cracksman now on course for Champion, will Roaring Lion defect to QEII whatever the going?
David Redvers has been quoted as saying if it came up soft the QEII would come into the equation for RL.
cheers kev, its just the cynic in me thinking now they will keep the two apart to keep cracksman team happy.
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